MLB trade deadline preview: American League West
With the MLB trade deadline only weeks away, let’s take a look at what each team in the American League West could be planning.
With the All-Star break nearly upon us, baseball will soon enter its midsummer intermission. It’s a chance for a brief respite during the grueling 162-game season. But once play resumes at the end of next week, teams will turn their attention to the next big item on the calendar: the MLB trade deadline.
The five clubs that make up the American League West should have varying levels of participation in the trade chatter over the next three weeks. While there are still plenty of games left to play this season, it’s not unreasonable to say this division already has a clear winner. The Houston Astros have been steamrolling the competition since April, and their AL-best 59-29 record has staked them to a very comfortable 15.5-game lead over their nearest rivals.
Even such a seemingly well-rounded team can make improvements to its roster, however, and the Astros will be as clear a buyer as you can find on the market. Though the other AL West clubs don’t have much of a chance of winning the division, the league’s Wild Card is still a very close race.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a few of these teams pursue an addition or two before the deadline in hopes of making a second-half push for one of the AL’s final two playoff spots. Performances immediately following the break could determine just how much each club is willing to go for it.
So without further ado, let’s take a team-by-team look at the AL West and what the strategy of each front office might be heading toward July 31.
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Houston Astros
The Astros could stand pat at the deadline and likely remain in great shape for the rest of the year. It’s hard to argue with what the team as currently configured has already achieved through the first half. Houston has had a stranglehold on the AL West lead for virtually the entire season, along with the best record in the American League.
Every part of the team is clicking, making this a roster with no obvious holes or deficiencies. They lead Major League Baseball in runs scored with 508, home runs with 143, OPS at .848 and pretty much every other prominent hitting category. The pitching staff has also been among the league’s best. Astros starters sport the fourth-best ERA in the league at 3.87, while the bullpen has been far more average at 14th with a 4.10 ERA.
Since early in the campaign, there have been reports that Houston would like to add another starting pitcher, and that could very well be a direction they still want to go. The rotation hasn’t suffered much at all while ace Dallas Keuchel has been on the DL. Lance McCullers has been enjoying a breakout season at age 23, while veterans Mike Fiers and Charlie Morton have also been serviceable.
However, bringing in another strong arm for the rotation would make the Astros even more formidable in the postseason. If the Astros really want to make a power play, they could go after one of the big names expected to be made available such as Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Gerrit Cole. Put one of those guys alongside Keuchel and McCullers, and you have a very nice trio of starters for Games 1-3 in any playoff series. Houston should also have the prospect depth to swing a deal if they indeed want to pull the trigger.
They might also consider fortifying the bullpen. Ken Giles has done a nice job as closer, converting 19 of 21 save opportunities. Chris Devenski has been a revelation as the team’s multi-purpose setup man. (Look for him to play the Andrew Miller role in October.) Will Harris has also fared well with a 2.86 ERA over 34.2 innings. Adding another dependable arm to the mix could help lighten the load during the dog days of summer and the high-stakes games of fall.
Next: Halos hanging in there
Los Angeles Angels
When it was revealed that Mike Trout would miss about two months with a torn thumb ligament, it wasn’t hard to imagine any chance of the Angels competing this year evaporating. But to the team’s credit, they haven’t folded in the absence of baseball’s best player. Since Trout last played on May 28, the Halos have gone 18-20. Nothing to write home about, but better to tread water than drown.
As a result, Los Angeles is still very much alive in the Wild Card picture at only three games out of the second spot. With Trout expected back before the end of the month, this is a team that could carry some momentum into August and remain a factor in the playoff race. The right trade could help them accomplish that goal.
The Angels could use help in several areas. The offense ranks 24th in the league with 374 runs scored and 27th with a .694 OPS. While another bat would certainly be useful, getting Trout back would make a bigger difference than anyone they could acquire via trade.
L.A.’s pitching staff has been solid overall, but the bullpen (which ranks seventh in ERA at 3.82) has covered for a largely mediocre starting rotation. None of the pitchers who have made at least 10 starts for the Angels has an ERA under 4.00. Pursuing a top-tier option likely isn’t in the cards, but a competent innings eater could still provide a significant boost.
The Angels will have to weigh their options carefully. Their -25 run differential suggests they’ve overachieved, but with the Wild Card still very much in reach, do they want to continue to squander Trout’s prime?
Next: Rangers to advance or retreat?
Texas Rangers
The Rangers are in nearly the same position as the Angels in the standings, but they have taken a decidedly different route to this point. Both teams are within three games of the second Wild Card berth. But while L.A. has a -25 run differential, Texas sports a +32 mark, suggesting they should be a bit better than where they are. The Rangers will need to decide if they believe their production will begin to reflect more in the win-loss column moving forward.
Texas started the campaign slowly, dropping as low as 13-20 on May 8. An underperforming lineup played a major role in their early sluggishness, with key contributors up and down the batting order failing to carry their weight. They’ve improved noticeably since then, moving up to eighth in MLB with 444 runs scored. Power has been a big part of their identity: The Rangers rank third with 135 long balls and feature eight players with double-digit home run totals.
Recent comments by GM Jon Daniels suggest the club is not thinking about selling as the deadline gets closer. Those who expected Yu Darvish to be on the move earlier in the year might be disappointed. If that’s the case, the most glaring area of need is the bullpen. Rangers relievers own a 4.60 ERA, good for just 24th in baseball. The closer role has been a particularly frustrating problem. Sam Dyson struggled out of the gate before being released, and his replacement Matt Bush recently lost the job in favor of a closer by committee.
The team might also be able to buy and sell at the same time. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who is a free agent at season’s end, could be dealt regardless of the team’s overall strategy. Reports have indicated the Rangers might look to trade him for pitching help. Though the backstop continues to disappoint in 2017, he should still hold plenty of appeal on the market. Texas wouldn’t take much of a hit offensively, while being able to give their pitching staff a boost.
Next: M's in the middle
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners entered the campaign with high expectations, but they’ve largely failed to live up to them. At 42-47, they sit in fourth place in the AL West. However, like the Angels and Rangers, they aren’t by any stretch of the imagination out of the Wild Card race at four games back. But are they confident enough they’ll rebound in the second half to seek additions at the trade deadline?
Seattle has been hurt by some offseason pitching moves that have simply not panned out. They acquired Drew Smyly from the Rays, but he’ll miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Yovani Gallardo, an import from the Orioles, was bad enough in the rotation to get banished to the bullpen. Mariners starters have posted a 4.82 ERA, which places them 23rd in the league. The relievers haven’t been much better with a 4.27 ERA (19th).
While it might be tempting to do something about that, the M’s seem like more of a stretch as potential buyers than the Angels or Rangers. GM Jerry Dipoto likes to deal, but that would be hard to justify as things stand. Unfortunately, the club doesn’t really have any obvious trade candidates who would secure big returns.
Danny Valencia is a free agent after the season and is slashing a decent .275/.335/.423. Teams might also be interested in his ability to play the corner infield positions and outfield. Jarrod Dyson is another impending free agent who could be shopped. With 20 stolen bases, he brings some speed to the table. Or Seattle could try to take advantage of a relatively weak bullpen market by dangling someone like Steve Cishek or Marc Rzepczynski.
In any case, don’t expect the Mariners to be an especially active player over the next few weeks.
Next: Selling time in Oakland
Oakland Athletics
The A’s are the clearest seller in the division, which should make them the most interesting team of the bunch to watch during trade season. Oakland is 6.5 games behind in the Wild Card hunt, which certainly isn’t insurmountable, but their -84 run differential doesn’t paint the most encouraging picture. Their chances of competing in the second half are slim, so the A’s will be open for business for the remainder of the month.
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Two of Oakland’s most prominent players have already been discussed in trade rumors for a while. Starting pitcher Sonny Gray has been the subject of rumors going back to last year, and it feels like the time is drawing nigh for the A’s to finally move him. The right-hander uncharacteristically struggled last season, but after a rocky start to 2017 he seems to be getting back on track. Gray has put up a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts.
At 27 years old and under team control through 2019, Gray is the kind of young, controllable starting pitcher with an ace’s reputation it seems every contender is always searching for. Naturally, the A’s should be able to net a notable prospect package in exchange for him.
First baseman Yonder Alonso’s breakout season could be his ticket out of town. In his eighth big league campaign, the 30-year-old has discovered his power stroke, belting 20 home runs with a .278/.374/.569 slash line en route to his first All-Star Game. He appears to have cooled off a bit, hitting .200 since June 22. Alonso also endured a 16-game homerless drought before clubbing three over his last five contests. Nevertheless, he should still draw plenty of interest.
Next: AL Central trade deadline preview
There has been some talk about the A’s being open to an extension with Alonso, who has expressed his affinity for Oakland and desire to stay there. However, it still feels like the team will strike while the iron is hot and capitalize on the first baseman’s big first half.