Preseason MLB Rookie of the Year favorites rounding into form

Before the season, a handful of players were considered favorites for the MLB rookie awards at the end of the season, but got off to rough starts.

Coming into 2017, a number of MLB players were considered favorites to win either the American League or National League Rookie of the Year awards. While Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger have seemingly locked those awards up already at the midway point of the year, preseason favorites that initially struggled out of the gate have begun to really turn it on.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox

As one of the two near-unanimous preseason picks in the game, Benintendi finished just short of the at bats that would disqualify him for rookie status in 2016, making him a clear favorite after a big 2016 and playing with a Red Sox lineup expected to be among the league’s best.

In spite of some hot streaks, as the Red Sox entered their final game in a series against the Orioles on June 4, Benintendi was hitting .259/.332/.376. He’d shown well on the base paths, with a 7/1 SB/CS rate, but the expected power simply hadn’t come in his swing, and there were times he looked overmatched at the plate.

Benintendi launched two home runs against the Orioles that day, and he’s been driving the ball with authority ever since, posting a .315/.402/.574 line with seven home runs in 127 plate appearances over 30 games.

Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves

It’s easy to understand why people were on the Swanson hype train in the spring as Swanson had the pedigree as a former #1 overall selection, and he had come up at the end of 2016 and hit a dazzling .302/.361/.442 while playing shortstop.

However, to open the season, Swanson was hitting .185/.272/.287 combined through May. There were signs that he wasn’t completely lost, like his .230 BABIP and ~11 percent walk rate, but he was striking out at a much higher rate than previous and simply not getting the gap power he’d displayed in his pro debut.

Something about switching the calendar to June changed all that for Swanson. Since the first of June, Dansby is hitting .273/.331/.380, but more impressive is that his strikeout rate is down to levels below even his minor league numbers in the last couple months. He’s been hitting the ball to the gaps, with seven doubles in 133 plate appearances in that time as well. While not quite to the level of where he wants to be just yet, there have been enough glimpses in the last month-plus to give Braves fans plenty of hope.

Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres

If there was a guy that people thought could upset Swanson in the National League, the pick was definitely Margot. He was to be the starting center fielder for the Padres, who intended to send him out there every day, so he was going to get plenty of opportunities to tally statistics.

Margot ended up on the DL on May 24, hitting .259/.305/.389. His elite speed was not showing for him, as he had been caught as much as he had been successful on the bases. And while he had not been a guy who walked a ton, he typically kept a good K/BB ratio as a hitter, not the 3/1 that he was showing when he went on the DL.

Margot returned on June 27, and while it’s a short burst of a few weeks before the All-Star break, he has looked considerably more comfortable at the plate and used his speed much better as well. He’s hit .277/.333/.404 since his return, with a 5/1 SB/CS rate.

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Jharel Cotton, P, Oakland Athletics

Cotton came up for a brief spell last season, making five starts and really catching the eyes of baseball with a 2.15 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and a 4/23 BB/K ratio over 29 1/3 innings in those starts. While he wasn’t an overpowering starter in velocity, his ability to spot the ball with a changeup that generated swing-and-miss led to many thinking he had a chance to play up as a possible upset candidate to Benintendi.

Instead, Cotton struggled from the get-go with control, and he still has yet to have a single game this season without a walk allowed. He went to the minors for a few turns through the rotation in mid-May, and he worked with Oakland pitching coach (then bullpen coach, but promoted since) Scott Emerson on trusting his stuff and staying in the zone.

Next: Braves win at more than the game

His last four starts before succumbing to the DL with a blister issue this past week looked much better from that standpoint. However, some suspect defense in two of the starts and one outing where Cotton really didn’t have his best stuff but hung in for five innings have led to the ERA and WHIP not being pretty.

Before those last four starts, Cotton’s season line was 10 starts, 55 1/3 innings, with a 5.20 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and a 11.1 percent walk rate. The last four starts, he’s thrown 21 1/3 innings with a 5.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, but a 5.6 percent walk rate. Hopefully, he can continue that when he returns to the Oakland rotation.