Oakland Athletics getting lucky breaks as deadline nears
The Oakland Athletics finally appear ready to start moving some of their big name pieces, and they’re getting little boosts from around the league that should help them get some solid returns.
Injuries are never something someone roots for, and Washington Nationals pitcher Joe Ross needing to undergo Tommy John surgery is certainly not a reason to celebrate. But it is an injury that could work out for the Oakland Athletics at the deadline. Taking Ross out of the rotation means that in all likelihood the bullpen will have to pick up some slack and if you haven’t heard, the Nats have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 5.18.
Not long after Ross’ injury status was announced, a rumor emerged that the Nationals were after both of the A’s top relievers on the market in Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Both players are under contract through at least next season and Doolittle has team options for both the 2019 and 2020 seasons, meaning their value on the trade market is higher than the standard rental.
Madson, 35, holds a 2.06 ERA while Doolittle, 30, holds a 3.38 ERA from the left side to go along with a 0.8 BB/9 and 13.1 K/9 rates. The two have combined for an fWAR of 1.7, which is 0.2 wins above replacement better than the entire Nationals bullpen this season. I didn’t even include the players with a negative fWAR in an effort to make things close. If we add those in, the Nats bullpen has a -0.9 fWAR, meaning they need to make a move and it’s a wonder why they haven’t already.
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The other piece of news that has helped the A’s is that the Cubs are still in on Sonny Gray, even after sending their top two prospects to the White Sox for Jose Quintana. While it’s hard to believe that the two teams could still make a deal with two of their best trade chips now on the White Sox, the more teams that are perceived to be in the bidding for Sonny’s services, the more that the Oakland Athletics can feasibly ask for in a potential deal elsewhere. Then again, maybe the Cubs are really in on Gray and are willing to trade at least one player off of their 25-man roster.
A couple of days ago I wrote that the Cubs had sent a message to the Milwaukee Brewers with the trade for Quintana. The biggest decision that the Crew have to make right now is whether they believe that their performance this year is the real deal or if there will be some regression next season or beyond. Basically: Is this their arrival as a contender, or is that another year off? The Brewers GM was still with Houston when the Astros traded a hefty package for Carlos Gomez, who flopped, and then watched from afar as the team failed to reach the playoffs the following season. In the rebuilding game, timing is everything. The Astros are doing just fine in 2017, but their farm system could be even stronger, meaning they’d be more willing to make a deal for the starter they covet.
The answer to that question for the Brewers will dictate their level of interest in Gray, not just for this season, but for seasons to come. Gathering up the prospects they have has taken work and time, and once they’re gone, they’re gone, so if this is the Brewers’ window beginning to open, then grabbing arguably the top starting pitcher off the market would be a nice way to officially announce their arrival.
The Astros have been rumored to be in on Gray for some time now, but Astros Twitter seems to have moved on to other targets like the Mets Jacob deGrom. Making such a big trade within the division would have some big ramifications. My guess is that the ‘Stros weren’t willing to meet the A’s price because of their AL West proximity. That could change with time, however.
Call it a gut feeling, but I feel that Sonny Gray gets moved in the next week or so. Billy Beane and company don’t tend to wait around when they get an offer they like, and an injury to Gray gets rid of their biggest trade chip this deadline, and the return for him could be franchise-altering. At the same time, the A’s front office likely doesn’t want to wait for other teams to start falling out of the race and become sellers as well. The Rangers or Rays deciding they want to move Yu Darvish or Chris Archer would hurt the Sonny market, so a deal made sooner rather than later just makes sense.