Midseason Top 50 MLB Prospects: 31-40
As MLB gets on track in the second half, let’s look at how the top prospects have shifted over the first half.
Last offseason, Call to the Pen contributor Benjamin Chase presented a top 125 MLB prospects list, and he will provide a midseason update to that list here.
This list will include recent draft picks, but it will not include the most recent international free agents that were signed on July 2 as there is just too little truly known about those players right now. Of course, as you’ll see, a few players from the 2016 IFA class make the list, and they have had minimal playing time in pro baseball, but that’s still something to view compared to the showcases of those just signed.
We will be releasing the list 10 at a time, with an extra list on Friday of 25 players to watch in the second half of the season that could jump into the top 50 by the end of the season.
This list is compiled by Ben through his own viewings on these prospects and contacts with scouts, team officials, and other writers in the industry who have had a chance to see the players that he has not yet seen to get scouting reports on those guys. In general, most players have 3-5 reports to put together to review.
Players that are in the major leagues and have expired their rookie eligibility or are expected to do such this season are not included in this list, so guys like Bradley Zimmer, Sean Newcomb, and Clint Frazier are not included on this list as they are up for their teams and seemingly in a role that would portend them expiring their rookie eligibility, and Ben wanted to highlight those players who will retain prospect status by the end of the season most likely.
Let’s get to today’s group, #31-40.
40. Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox
Considered one of the best prospects to come out of Cuba in raw tools, argued as possibly even more toolsy than Yoan Moncada, Robert did not get the same exposure in Cuban ball that Moncada did, but in international competitions, he had established himself as an elite talent.
Robert is a 6’3″, 185-pound player that offers legit double-plus speed, plus arm, and plus raw power. Most consider his defense in center field as plus and his contact tool to be plus as well, which would give him a legit five plus tool combination.
The White Sox won a bidding war this spring for Robert and placed him in the Dominican Summer League as his visa issues are worked out, and he has flashed his brilliant athleticism in a league quite a bit below his competition level. He has stolen eight bases in 17 games and walked more than he’s struck out at this time.
Robert has the legit skill set to be a top 10 prospect, but he’s yet to come state side in competition at this point, so I’ll still withhold some reservation as many future Cuban stars have fizzled as they’ve hit the upper minors or major leagues, but Robert is a ridiculously talented player.
39. Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Probably the most unfortunate player of the spring was Kelly, when it was announced that long-time All-Star catcher Yadier Molina had signed an extension with the Cardinals, essentially blocking Kelly just as he’s on the cusp of the major leagues.
Kelly was originally a third baseman when drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft out of high school in Oregon. The Cardinals moved him behind the plate, and many felt that his power bat would play well with his athleticism behind the plate. What happened is that Kelly has actually become an exceptional defensive catcher, but instead of clubbing the ball, he’s developed into a contact-driven hitter with excellent zone recognition.
In many organizations, Kelly would be working into the starting lineup this season, plotting out his 2018 move to the primary catcher for the organization. Instead, he’s in AAA Memphis for the Cardinals, either working as prime trade bait or as the next “super flex” player that the Cardinals may work at catcher as well as other positions to get him 300-450 plate appearances a year. However, with Kelly’s ability behind the plate and the emphasis on catchers who can handle the position defensively and provide something (anything!) at the plate, Kelly’s value would be maximized with the tools of ignorance on rather than off.
38. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
One of the most elite athletes to come into the MLB draft in many years, Greene is a rare player who would be a legit top-five player in most drafts as a high school and pitcher and a legit top 15ish hitter as a shortstop.
In a season that had multiple two-way players in the MLB draft, none had a ceiling as high in both directions as Greene, who can exceed triple digits off of the mound and has legit light-tower power and clean defensive actions as a shortstop.
Greene will be working as a pitcher in the Reds system because, frankly, 102 MPH doesn’t just grow on trees. He has work to do on his secondary offerings, but he has flashed the ability to have both a plus change and plus breaking pitch.
Greene will have a lot of eyes on him as one of the most hyped players in recent draft memory.
37. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
The guy considered to go #1 before the 2016 college season and fell to #6 due to inconsistency, Puk can say that he has already faced struggles entering pro ball, which is a positive compared to most high draft picks.
Puk has the size (6’7″, 220 pounds), raw stuff, and just enough deception in his delivery that he should absolutely dominate players. He threw sparingly in the New York-Penn League last year after a full college season, but he flashed his brilliance, with 40 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings.
The Athletics bumped Puk all the way to the hitter-friendly Cal League this year, and while he struggled some with his location, he was so dominant that he could overcome it, as he threw 61 innings, with a 3.69 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and struck out an astounding 38.6 percent of batters he faced.
The promotion to AA has not been as kind to Puk as his control issues have been more costly, with a 4.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings over four starts. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly as upper minors hitters have been forcing Puk to hit the plate with his stuff rather than chasing his wicked slider.
Puk certainly still has the stuff to be an elite starter if he can get the control put together, but one scout told me last fall that the path of Puk’s future was paved by another similarly tall lefty with a wipeout slider, Andrew Miller, and that scout felt Puk could have as much or more future value in that role as he will as a starter due to the scout’s belief that Puk will struggle to develop his third pitch enough with control to work through a lineup multiple times.
36. Chance Adams, RHP, New York Yankees
While the New York Yankees system has received plenty of recognition in the last year or so, it seems that Adams has flown under the radar, in spite of putting up some of the best numbers in that system the last two seasons.
Adams was part of a talented Dallas Baptist staff that yielded multiple top draft picks in 2015, including Adams in the fifth round. In his draft year, Adams pitched through three levels, making it up to high-A, throwing 35 1/3 innings, with a 1.78 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 9/45 BB/K ratio.
In 2016, his first full season in the organization, he split the season nearly evenly between high-A and AA, throwing 127 1/3 innings, with a combined 2.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 39/144 BB/K ratio.
This season, he opened with AA Trenton and has jumped up to AAA, and it really hasn’t slowed him down. He’s now thrown 97 1/3 innings on the season, with a combined 1.94 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a 41/99 BB/K ratio.
Adams has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s without a ton of movement, but he locates the pitch very well, and he plays his change well off of it. His slider has rated as a plus pitch and has only gotten better, bumping on a double-plus pitch as it’s a hard, tight slider. He also adds in a curve that’s an average pitch as well.
The four pitch mix has Adams ready for a big league trial, but with New York in the playoff hunt, there may not be a spot this season for such a trial as the team needs someone to give consistent innings in the rotation right now and may not have the patience for a rookie going through growing pains with rookie Jordan Montgomery already in the rotation. That could mean Adams is prime trade bait for the Yankees as they seek a pitcher in the trade market, or that he finishes the year in AAA, hoping for his shot in 2018.
35. Kevin Maitan, SS, Atlanta Braves
The most highly regarded traditional IFA prospect since Miguel Cabrera, Maitan had been on the radar for MLB teams since he was 13-14 years old due to his impressive power, tremendous arm, and quick bat.
Maitan really impressed scouts at fall instructionals, showing plus power from both sides of the plate with excellent zone recognition and contact skills that would also rate as plus. Maitan did show up as larger than originally listed at signing, as he was listed at 6’1″ and roughly 180 pounds at signing, and he’s been estimated at 6’3″ or taller and likely over 200 pounds of almost pure “good” weight, as Maitan is an impressive physical specimen.
Maitan is never going to be an elite runner, but he’s still athletic enough that he can handle short for now, though his increased size likely indicates a move to third base is in his near future, though that was fairly expected.
Maitan has already earned a promotion to the advanced rookie level at 17 years old after hitting .314/.351/.400 in nine games in the Gulf Coast League. He could be a guy that by the end of the season is getting some top 15-20 buzz in the game.
34. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
There are few teams that draft and develop as well as the Dodgers, and Verdugo is a prime example of just that. A player out of high school who was as touted for his work off the mound as at the plate, Verdugo was considered raw at either when taken in the second round in 2014, but the Dodgers chose to have him go to the outfield.
A stocky build at 6’0″ and 205 pounds, you’d expect the lefty swing of Verdugo to generate some tremendous power, but instead Verdugo has some of the best bat control in all of the minor leagues that he pairs with tremendous strike zone and pitch recognition to be arguably the best future leadoff hitter in the minor leagues at the moment.
Verdugo’s never going to be a guy who hits 30 home runs or steals 30 bases for a team, but he’s got above average power that he uses to pepper the gaps to the tune of 20 doubles and four triples in 83 games so far this season. He’s also got above-average speed that allows him to play a very good right field and be quite successful on the bases (8/9 in SB attempts on the season).
The real jewel of Verdugo’s defensive profile is his throwing arm. He made 21 assists in 2015 before word got out about his arm and he had “just” 13 last season. This year year’s already totaled eight on the season, in spite of teams knowing not to challenge him.
Verdugo’s in the unfortunate situation of having a lefty bat in an organization with an offense needing a righty bat, which could lead to him being trade bait, but he has shown in AAA this season that he could be ready for a major league trial very soon.
33. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
One of the best athletes in all of the minor leagues, Alford’s story has been a fun one to track over the years. Drafted out of high school in 2012 in the third round, Alford was a certain first round talent, but he intended to play college football, and that intention drove many teams away.
The Blue Jays were willing to work with Alford as he enjoyed a college football career before choosing in 2015 to focus solely on baseball. The results were immediate, as he hit .298/.398/.421 with 25 doubles, seven triples, four home runs, and 27 steals between low-A and high-A.
Injuries stalled him last season at high-A Dunedin, but he was dominating this season at AA, even earning a trip to the major league club as an injury replacement before injuring himself. He’s just getting back onto the field, but in 33 games this year at AA, he’s hit .325/.411/.455 with seven doubles, three home runs, and nine stolen bases.
Alford is just 22 years old and is considered an incredibly hard worker and very coachable from anyone who talks about him, which makes it all the more fun to see him succeed. He’s working in a rehab assignment currently and should be back soon to full strength to hopefully earn at least a September call up back to the big league level.
32. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
This is one of the most difficult rankings to do on the entire list. There are perhaps two or three arms in the entire minor leagues that are on par with Sixto’s at this point in raw velocity and stuff. However, Sixto is in low-A ball and just 18, and so much can happen to a pitcher along the way that it’s hard to put a guy too high with so much risk still out there.
Sixto was originally signed as an outfielder by the Phillies out of the Dominican Republic for just $35,000, Sanchez was immediately converted to the mound, and his first season in the Dominican Summer League was less than impressive.
He then came stateside to the Gulf Coast League in 2016, and the impression was much, much different. Sixto put up a 0.50 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 8/44 BB/K ratio over 54 innings last season in the GCL. Even more impressive were the reports on his raw stuff. He was bumping against the triple digit mark with his fastball with frequency, could locate his change extremely well, and had a curve that was a perfect pitch for weak contact or swing and miss.
This season has seen Sanchez tick up everything another notch. The fastball is frequently topping 100 in starts, late into starts as well. The curve has more bite and is generating a lot more swing and miss. The change is still pinpoint in location.
Sanchez won’t turn 19 until the end of July, and he’s already enjoying a dominating full season, with a 2.88 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 6/54 BB/K ratio in 56 1/3 innings with low-A Lakewood in the South Atlantic League. He could spend the whole season there, or he could even bump up a league. This is one of the elite pitching prospects in the game, but he is still in low-A and 18 years old.
31. Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlanta Braves
I don’t do draft rankings of prospects, preferring to attempt to place players with teams as how a player ranks really matters on each team’s idea of developing a player and all sorts of bias brought into such things, but if I had put together such a ranking coming into the 2017 draft of my personal rankings, Wright would have topped the list.
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He checks a lot of boxes that portend to a successful major league future – good college competition in the SEC, good pro repertoire with a fastball into the mid 90s along with good offspeed stuff, and the type of frame that can stand up in the pro game at 6’4″ and 200 pounds.
Wright’s early season struggles at Vanderbilt had some backing away from him, but he’s even admitted that he was overthrowing his fastball, which caused it to straighten out. He typically gets excellent late movement on his fastball when he sits in the 92-94 range with the pitch, and can reach back for 97 as needed.
His hard curve and his slider/cutter combo are his two primary off-speed pitches, but he has used a change at times in college and has good feel for the pitch, so that should be something he can adapt to well.
Whether there is an elite, “ace” starter here, or a really good #2 type, Wright should move quickly to the major leagues and be a quality starter for an extended time at the level.
Anyone that surprised you? Anyone you disagreed with so far? Any of the evaluations that surprised you? Comment below, and come back the rest of the week for the rest of the list!