New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics discussing Yonder Alonso

The Yankees and A’s have reportedly discussed a deal involving first baseman Yonder Alonso. The Yanks have struggled at the position all year, but should declining production scare them away from the Oakland All-Star?

The New York Yankees‘ search for a first baseman is one of many prominent storylines in the weeks heading up to the July 31 trade deadline. It appears as though the Bronx Bombers are making progress in addressing that need. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Yankees have been discussing Yonder Alonso with the Oakland Athletics.

It’s not the most surprising news: The Yanks’ first base woes are well-known and they have been linked to Alonso before. Meanwhile, the A’s are engaged in a rebuild which has already seen them unload a pair of veteran relievers and will likely jettison a couple more of their big-name players by the end of the month. New York certainly has the prospect capital to entice Oakland, who recently had scouts at the team’s Class A Charleston affiliate. It all seems a natural fit on paper.

Alonso was an eyebrow-raising story in the first half of the season. After hitting a total of 39 home runs in his first seven major league seasons, the 30-year-old Cuba native mashed 21 through his first 80 games this year. The unexpected power surge earned Alonso his first All-Star Game appearance and turned the once-middling first baseman into a coveted trade chip.

Overall, Alonso is slashing .268/.366/.555 on the year and his 2.1 fWAR ranks eighth among MLB first basemen. However, the Yankees (and any other interested suitor, for that matter) might be concerned by Alonso’s recent drop-off in production.

Alonso enjoyed a blistering start, batting .291/.391/.657 with 14 home runs and 31 RBI through the month of May. Since the beginning of June, however, he’s hitting a much less remarkable .246/.342/.457 while adding only seven more homers and 13 more RBI to his account. Furthermore, he’s batting just .208 in July.

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Given Alonso’s lack of track record as a bona fide slugger, it’s not hard to argue that he simply played over his head for a couple months and has now fallen back down to earth. In April and May, he managed a 26.4 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) rate that was probably unsustainable for the long haul. From June onward, his HR/FB has fallen to an above-average but more conventional 16.7 percent.

However, given the dumpster fire that has been the Yankees’ production from first base this year, even a regressing Alonso represents a substantial upgrade over what they already have. Yankees first basemen have mustered a paltry .686 OPS, which ranks 29th in baseball. The position has been a revolving door, currently occupied by neophytes Ji-Man Choi and Garrett Cooper.

Even with that in mind, the Yanks should be wary of overpaying for Alonso. Aside from the concerning trends he’s shown of late, he’s also a rental player who will hit free agency at season’s end. With the Yankees in clear need of some rotation help, it’s worth wondering whether their talks with the A’s could expand into a blockbuster including Sonny Gray as well. That would net Oakland a significantly larger prospect return.

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There’s no indication how far along these discussions are, or how likely a deal is. Buster Olney of ESPN believes Alonso and Gray are guaranteed to be traded before the deadline, so both could have new homes in a couple weeks, whether in New York or elsewhere.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.