KISSIMMEE, FL - JANUARY 28: Baseball gloves and a baseball lie in the dirt during the Jim Evans Academy of Professional Umpiring on January 28, 2011 at the Houston Astros Spring Training Complex in Kissimmee, Florida. Jim Evans was a Major League Umpire for 28 years that included umpiring four World Series. Many of his students have gone on to work on all levels of baseball including the Major Leagues. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
KISSIMMEE, FL – JANUARY 28 (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /
As MLB gets on track in the second half, let’s look at how the top prospects have shifted over the first half.
Last offseason, Call to the Pen contributor Benjamin Chase presented a top 125 MLB prospects list, and he will provide a midseason update to that list here.
This list will include recent draft picks, but it will not include the most recent international free agents that were signed on July 2 as there is just too little truly known about those players right now. Of course, as you’ll see, a few players from the 2016 IFA class make the list, and they have had minimal playing time in pro baseball, but that’s still something to view compared to the showcases of those just signed.
We will be releasing the list 10 at a time, with an extra list on Friday of 25 players to watch in the second half of the season that could jump into the top 50 by the end of the season.
This list is compiled by Ben through his own viewings on these prospects and contacts with scouts, team officials, and other writers in the industry who have had a chance to see the players that he has not yet seen to get scouting reports on those guys. In general, most players have 3-5 reports to put together to review.
Players that are in the major leagues and have expired their rookie eligibility or are expected to do such this season are not included in this list, so guys like Bradley Zimmer, Sean Newcomb, and Clint Frazier are not included on this list as they are up for their teams and seemingly in a role that would portend them expiring their rookie eligibility, and Ben wanted to highlight those players who will retain prospect status by the end of the season most likely.
At 6’3″ and roughly 200 pounds, Perez is a built well for starting. The Astros originally signed him out of Venezuela in 2014, and he’s developed quickly physically, which has allowed him to find a hold on his stuff quicker than most that are usually still growing into their body at 19. Perez has a fastball that can touch upper 90s but works best in the 92-94 range with excellent wiggle. He has a change with very good movement as well that pairs tremendously with his fastball.
Perez saw the control on his curve come forward a ton this year, and the pitch was already a plus pitch based on its movement. Add in the added command and control of his slider, which is an above-average, but plays up with the better control, and you can see why people were drooling over Perez early in the year.
Perez seemed to slow down just before his promotion to AA with knee soreness that kept him out almost a month. He’s still not been 100 percent since coming back. The Astros can afford to be patient, however, as Perez is only 19 and will be until December, so if he makes a few more starts at AA to get his feet wet at the level and opens next season at 20 at AA, that’s still plenty ahead of the typical age curve!
Fisher was drafted in the first round of the 2014 draft from the University of Virginia. Much like there is a “Stanford swing” that former Stanford players have to work out of their system in the majors, Virginia players are coached to a certain type of swing that does take a bit of time to work out, and Fisher has seen his swing finally come around fully from that.
In the mean time, his numbers have always been solid, even with the swing getting work. He’s well on his way to his fourth straight 20/20 season, and he’s lowered his strikeout rate to under 20% while improving his contact rate significantly, allowing him to hit for productive average, and while it is in the PCL, his average is not just a product of the PCL as one can see changes in Fisher’s swing over the last three years that have really taken hold this year.
Fisher truly is ready for a big league trial at this point, but the Astros are more than full in their outfield, and while it could be argued that Fisher is better than some of the guys in the lineup currently, the argument could also be made that the Astros have the best offense in the league, so why try to fix what isn’t broken?
That could lead to Fisher being the key piece in a deal for the Astros to bring in an established arm to help their rotation. Regardless, he’s going to be ready to contribute in the second half of the season and certainly as 2018 opens.
Originally signed out of Venezuela by Toronto, Barreto remains the best chance for the Athletics to retain value out of the Josh Donaldson deal. Barreto has an electric-quick bat through the zone, but he has struggled to develop his zone recognition along the way as he’s moved quickly through the A’s system, going from high -A in 2015 to the majors for an audition this season.
Barreto currently has a 5.6 percent walk rate, which is right about average for what he’s done in the minor leagues. Barreto has struck out at a 30 percent rate this year, which is a career high for him. A big part of that is that Barreto has struggled in an effort to generate more power in his swing, altering his swing from the quick, line drive stroke that sprayed the ball all over the field to a pull-heavy swing that has really altered his results.
Barreto has actually shown well defensively this year at short, though I still think his future home will be either at 2B or CF long-term. His value is down some for me right now, but his talent is still elite.
Quantrill was selected out of high school in Canada, but he had a strong commitment to Stanford, where the Padres selected him eighth overall in 2016, even though he did not pitch much of the spring season. His lack of work in the spring allowed the Padres to push his arm a bit more than a typical college arm, having him throw 37 innings across three levels, with a dominating 8/46 BB/K ratio.
The Padres opened Quantrill at high-A this season to put him on a fast track. He just got a promotion recently, and has made only one start at AA, but he will finish out the season at that level. On the season, Quantrill has thrown 79 innings, with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, posting a 26/80 BB/K ratio. All but 5 1/3 innings were at high-A.
Quantrill has an excellent pitch mix with a heavy sinking fastball and a good mix of offspeed offerings, with his change being arguably his best pitch, and arguably among the top 3-5 changeups in all of the minor leagues. He should move quickly, likely seeing some major league time in 2018 for the Padres.
When the Braves drafted Soroka out of high school in Canada in the first round supplemental in 2015, it was known that Soroka was advanced in his feel for pitching. However, when the Braves had the 19 year-old skip over high-A and head straight to AA in 2017, many Braves fans were worried that it could be too fast for the young right-hander.
Instead, Soroka has been incredibly dominant in AA, arguably moving himself to the top of the deep Braves roster of pitching prospects. I still have him second in that group, but that’s no knock on Soroka by any means as he’s shown the ability to alter his low-90s fastball with incredible movement along with utilizing multiple grips on his offspeed pitches to give Soroka often 7-8 looks to batters in a single game, allowing him to go through a lineup three times and still have hitters seeing new stuff that they haven’t seen before, a huge weapon for him.
Soroka’s handled the promotion to the upper minors with such ease that it would not surprise at all if Soroka reached the majors to open 2018 the way he’s going.
Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, Adames was a big piece of the trade that the Tigers made to acquire David Price during the 2014 season. His excellent raw power was assumed to age well in the infield, and very feasibly up the middle, even if he had to move off of shortstop.
Adames has filled out as he has aged, but the Rays have kept working him at short in spite of range decreasing seemingly each year. The Rays have played him two games at second base this season so far, but that’s the most he played outside of shortstop since his first professional season in 2013 in the Tigers organization.
The other issue is that while Adames does well taking a walk, he’s seemed to take a step backward in his swing control and swing path, rather than cleaning things up to improve his contract rate and strikeout rate.
Adames has incredible raw power and bat speed, and he still has that upside to become a legit middle of the order hitter. I do still worry about Adames struggling with big league pitchers with his contact and strikeouts with his swing, but he’s shown the ability to make hard contact even with his adjusted swing.
Arguably the most exciting arm in the entire minor leagues, Espinoza was acquired at the deadline last season from the Red Sox by the Padres for Drew Pomeranz. Espinoza was originally signed by the Red Sox for $1.8M out of Venezuela in 2014.
He’s not the biggest guy, listed at 6’0″ and 160 pounds (which may be a few pounds short, but not a whole lot), but Espinoza has a steady delivery that generates upper 90s heat with tremendous movement. He also has a change that’s incredible and a curve that is a swing and miss pitch as well.
Espinoza has struck out 165 in 166 2/3 professional innings thus far in his minor league career, but he has not yet pitched this season (or he very well may be much higher) due to forearm tightness. Reports have come out that the tightness was not in the elbow or ligament, and at the end of June, Espinoza was starting throwing and hoping to start pitching in competitive games in late July.
Espinoza’s arm is one that’d be rated a top 10-15 player in all of the game if he was still on a productive path, but right now, he’s here as a “hedge” to where he could be long-term vs. not pitching yet this season.
A legit option at the #1 overall selection in the 2015 draft before he had back concerns in his final season of high school, Allard was signed for over slot at #14 in the draft that season.
Allard joined Soroka in the jump over high-A to AA Mississippi this season. The jump hasn’t fazed Allard at all, as he’s thrown 100 2/3 innings with a 3.31 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 37/85 BB/K ratio.
Allard has some of the best stuff from the left side in all of baseball. He sits in the low-90s with his fastball with excellent late movement and the ability to reach back for 95 at the top end. Allard’s curve ball is one of the best in minor league baseball, and his change is a fringe plus pitch as well.
While he’s finding swing and miss a bit tougher sledding in the upper minors, he’s doing very well overall, and could be setting himself up to find his way to Atlanta for at least a trial in 2018.
The Red Sox drafted Kopech out of high school in the first round of the 2014 draft. Kopech has the “Texan righty” prototype, with a wiry 6’3″ build and a fireballing right arm that can touch into the triple digits.
Kopech was set up to have a big 2016 season before he got into a fight with a teammate during spring training and broke his pitching hand. After recovering, Kopech had a big season, reaching high-A, and posting a 2.08 ERA over 56 1/3 innings with a 1.10 WHIP and a 33/86 BB/K ratio.
The White Sox acquired Kopech as part of the Chris Sale deal this offseason. Because of his injury the previous season limiting his innings, Kopech is likely to be managed at around 120ish innings. So far on the season, he’s thrown 84 1/3 innings, posting a 3.84 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with a 55/106 BB/K.
Kopech’s primary weapon is his pure gas, with a fastball that easily tops the 100 MPH mark. He has worked hard on the rest of his repertoire, to the point where he has most scouts fairly certain he’ll be able to make it to the major leagues as a starter. That ascension to the big leagues could take place as soon as this fall for Kopech.
Coming from a baseball family where father Tom is a former big league pitcher and brother Dee is a current speedster second baseman for the Miami Marlins, Gordon was seen as simply the “next in line” in his family when he was taken fifth overall in the 2014 draft out of high school in Florida.
Nick isn’t a diminutive fire baller like his father or a guy with blazing speed like his brother, he’s his own player completely. The trouble for many evaluators has been determining exactly what kind of player that was.
Athletic and possessing a high baseball IQ, Gordon has put to bed any doubts about him playing shortstop full time going forward with hard work in the last two seasons to improve his footwork to allow him to access what is an above-average to plus arm.
Gordon is not going to be a guy who hits 30 home runs or even steals 30 bases in spite of having above average power and speed. He utilizes that power into the gaps, and while his base stealing numbers are not great, he utilizes the speed he has and his baseball smarts to be an exceptional base runner, often taking an additional base when on the base paths, which is just as valuable (or more so) than the base stealing ability.
Gordon is showing well in AA currently, and while he’s not likely to be taking over a starting job in Minnesota by the end of 2017, he’s certainly ready for a big league trial run in the near future.
Anyone that surprised you? Anyone you disagreed with so far? Any of the evaluations that surprised you? Comment below, and come back the rest of the week for the rest of the list!
