Midseason Top 50 MLB Minor League Prospects: 11-20
As MLB gets on track in the second half, let’s look at how the top prospects have shifted over the first half.
Last offseason, Call to the Pen contributor Benjamin Chase presented a top 125 MLB prospects list, and he will provide a midseason update to that list here.
This list will include recent draft picks, but it will not include the most recent international free agents that were signed on July 2 as there is just too little truly known about those players right now. Of course, as you’ll see, a few players from the 2016 IFA class make the list, and they have had minimal playing time in pro baseball, but that’s still something to view compared to the showcases of those just signed.
We will be releasing the list 10 at a time, with an extra list on Friday of 25 players to watch in the second half of the season that could jump into the top 50 by the end of the season.
This list is compiled by Ben through his own viewings on these prospects and contacts with scouts, team officials, and other writers in the industry who have had a chance to see the players that he has not yet seen to get scouting reports on those guys. In general, most players have 3-5 reports to put together to review.
Players that are in the major leagues and have expired their rookie eligibility or are expected to do such this season are not included in this list, so guys like Bradley Zimmer, Sean Newcomb, and Clint Frazier are not included on this list as they are up for their teams and seemingly in a role that would portend them expiring their rookie eligibility, and Ben wanted to highlight those players who will retain prospect status by the end of the season most likely.
Let’s get to today’s group, #11-20.
20. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
When the Indians were making bold moves last season to attempt to make a World Series run, there were two guys that the team seemed most hesitant to move. One was Bradley Zimmer, who is now at the major league level, challenging Byron Buxton and Billy Hamilton on speed leader boards via statcast. The other was McKenzie.
McKenzie was selected with a first round comp pick in 2015, #42 overall. With an August birthday, he was still 17 when drafted, one of the youngest in his draft class. He threw very well in his draft year in the Arizona Rookie League, posting a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings, with a 3/17 BB/K ratio.
McKenzie came out on fire in the New York-Penn League in 2016, with a 0.55 ERA over 49 1/3 innings before being promoted to the low-A affiliate in the Midwest League, where he continued to dominate in BB/K, even if his ERA wasn’t as sparkling. Overall on the season, he threw 83 1/3 innings, with a 1.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 22/104 BB/K ratio.
McKenzie is 6’5″ and he’s very lean, listed at 165, which may be a touch light, but not much. He has a fastball that sits in the low 90s but can touch up to 96 and has excellent plane and late movement. His curve and his change are both pitches that are fringe plus to go along with the plus fastball.
McKenzie continues to build his confidence in using his change in all counts and to all handed hitters, but pushing him to high-A this season at 19 has allowed McKenzie to really push forward in his overall pitching, and he could work his way to AA by the end of the season as he’s currently made 17 starts, throwing 96 2/3 innings, with a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an intense 34/124 BB/K ratio.
19. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
When the Pirates drafted Keller out of high school in Iowa in the second round of the 2014 draft, they assumed they were getting a long term project of a pitcher that would take a number of years to work his way to the major leagues with a fastball that had velocity, movement, and control coming out of high school, but he needed to work on secondary pitches heavily.
Outside of injuries that slowed him in 2015, Keller has been on a fast track instead during his minor league career. He dominated in low-A in 2016 with his elite control and surprising development of his secondary pitches, and he took that forward to this season.
In 2016, with West Virginia in the South Atlantic League (and one start in high-A), Keller made 24 starts, throwing 130 1/3 innings with a 2.35 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 19/138 BB/K ratio. This year in high-A (and a couple rehab starts after he missed some time with injury), Keller has made 14 starts, throwing 62 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 19/57 BB/K ratio.
Keller’s fastball features a ton of sink and some horizontal movement that he’s shown an ability to vary on the pitch based on his grip of the pitch, working in the 92-95 range, topping out around 96-97. The curve has an 11-5 shape and has very good spin to it, making it a definite strike out pitch, but if any pitch loses the strike zone for Keller, the curve is it.
I would probably see Keller getting a handful of starts in AA this year, which would put him on pace to be in AA/AAA at age 22 and making a push for the 2019 rotation.
18. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
A four-tool prospect (his arm is below-average), Meadows has been considered among the elite athletes and prospects in all of the minor leagues since he was drafted #9 overall in 2013. However, if health was a tool, Meadows would be in trouble.
In spite of the injury issues in his career, Meadows’ production pushed him all the way to AAA by age 21 last season, so he’s moved quickly in his career, even though he’s been hurt. This offseason saw Pirates superstar and “face of the team” Andrew McCutchen shopped in the trade market, and a big reason was that Meadows was up to AAA in 2016 and didn’t make a terrible showing.
I noted in 2016 that the smooth, line drive swing that made Meadows such a tremendous hitter in his minor league career previously seemed to be replaced by a swing seeking more loft. That has seemed to hurt Meadows’ contact rate, though his excellent zone recognition has kept him from seeing his strikeout rate going through the roof.
Health will be the biggest thing for Meadows, as he doesn’t seem to have any one issue that repeats, but he seems to find a new one every year, and that is concerning as injuries have certainly derailed the careers of many brilliant talents in the history of the game.
17. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Anyone watching the Futures game understands that Honeywell has moved into the realm of one of the top pitching prospects in the entire game. Honeywell is throwing well in AAA and while he has seen his ERA go up, it is in large part due to BABIP issues.
Honeywell has multiple pitches at his disposal, led by his mid-90s sinking fastball. Honeywell’s change is easily a plus pitch, and sometimes it gets mistaken for his trademark screwball, a pitch that only a few pitchers in all of baseball even throw at this point.
Honeywell throws a cutter, a curve, and he’s even toyed with a straight slider in the last year as well. While the curve and slider are fringe-average pitches, mixing them in with the plus fastball, plus screwball, and plus change along with an above average cutter and plus control, and Honeywell has an entire arsenal of weapons at his disposal against hitters.
In the majors, he may be asked to cut down to 4-5 pitches each game, though he could keep all his pitches in use in general. Honeywell should be able to get to the majors this year, if just for a September call up and could challenge for a 2018 spot, likely encouraging a trade for the Rays this offseason.
16. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Reyes was considered a top 2-3 prospect in the entire game coming into the season before Tommy John surgery ended his season. Reyes has a blazing fastball that can easily top triple digits along with a hard curve that is a major swing and miss pitch. His change had taken a huge step forward in the last few years, working in the upper 80s/lower 90s with excellent movement that he threw in his time in the major leagues in 2016 with success.
The surgery has certainly put a damper onto Reyes’ future. While most assume TJS is a one-year delay and then return to previous elite production, many pitchers never make it back to their previous level and some never make it back at all.
Whether Reyes will return as a starter again or end up working in relief is unclear, but hopefully he can return to the guy he was before his surgery.
15. Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Brinson was originally drafted in the first round by the Texas Rangers in 2012 as an extremely toolsy outfielder. The tools have always been present for Brinson, but he struggled out of the gate initially as he polished his batting approach.
Blessed with incredibly quick wrists, Brinson can make up for mistakes in his swing with his wrists, committing to a pitch and able to still use his quick and powerful wrists to flick the ball into the outfield with his lower half committed, something very few hitters have the physical ability to do.
Brinson has plus game power that can flash even double plus in batting practice or when he gets everything dialed all together on a pitch. Due to his focus as a top-of-the-order hitter typically, he’s focused more on contact and let the power play rather than focusing on maximizing the power.
Brinson is also a plus runner that is blessed with exceptional instincts in the outfield that should allow him to be immediately an impact defender in center field once the Brewers settle him into the position. Currently, Brinson is tearing up AAA and waiting for the opportunity to show his stuff at the big league level, which he should get some opportunity to do this year, with a likely shot to take over in center in 2018.
14. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
I’ve been called a Senzel “hater” for my ranking on him in the offseason, and there are some who will probably say this is even too low. My opinion on Senzel since day one with him was that he was what he would become when he was drafted as there was minimal physical projection to his body and his swing was near-perfect for what it was, so the Reds weren’t going to mess with it much, if at all.
My projection with Senzel has always been as a guy who can hit for very good average and a ton of gap power, but that will likely not clear more than 20 home runs annually (though of course, the current major league home run surge throws all sorts of normal projections out of whack).
So far in his minor league career, Senzel has shown good contact ability along with tremendous ability to send the ball into the gaps, with a .306/.384/.493 line over his minor league career with 56 doubles, five triples and 14 home runs over 154 minor league games, giving really the time frame of a typical major league season.
Senzel’s defense at third base has impressed me much more than it did in what I saw in college. While his instincts are still average, he makes up for that with quick, smooth hands and an accurate, strong arm across the infield. His ability coming in on balls is one of the better ones you’ll see at the hot corner in the minor leagues.
Reds fans shouldn’t be expecting a guy to come in and suddenly hit 30 home runs, but I could see Nick Senzel having a very similar career to Matt Carpenter once he gets to the major leagues, which could be as soon as opening day 2018.
13. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Buehler was a huge prospect in college in 2015 at Vanderbilt before injuring his elbow and falling to the Dodgers at #24 overall in the draft. He came back from Tommy John surgery, and the Dodgers handled him very carefully last year, and are continuing to ease him back this year.
It’s easy to see why they’d take such care with Buehler. The overall package is absolutely elite, with a fastball that sits around 93-95 in action this season and can bump against triple digits in short bursts. His curve and slider have become ridiculous weapons, and his change has taken a significant step forward to where many view it as a fringe-plus pitch. He’s even taken to gripping his slider different at points to give it more of a cutter look, giving him a fifth look for hitters.
Many worry on Buehler’s size and keeping that sort of arsenal as he’s built slight at 6’2″ and 175-185 pounds, but he’s extremely athletic, and I’ve been incredibly impressed in my viewings of him this year in his general ease in which he’ll throw a ball into the upper 90s, seemingly not taxing his delivery to generate the additional velocity.
Regardless, the Dodgers do continue to handle him carefully, and it’s very feasible that he is moved to relief to manage his innings this year, but that could mean a move to the major leagues to use his dynamic arm out of the bullpen down the stretch for the Dodgers, which would be incredible to watch. Outside of an appearance in the bullpen, Buehler has held his own in AA thus far and seems on track for a mid-season look at the major league rotation in 2018.
12. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Easily the top catching prospect in the game at this point, Mejia has made the top 10 prospects in the entire game on a few different lists. Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, Mejia has always had a solid contact tool, but he really began to get plenty of notice during his 50-game hit streak last season.
Mejia has a quick swing that generates more power than you’d expect when you see him at the plate, though his power is primarily gap power with some occasional pull power on either side of the plate as a switch-hitter.
Behind the plate, Mejia has an absolute cannon of an arm, but a lot of the other aspects of catching are still very raw. He’ll flash a very confident and mature approach in one game and the next game, he’s jumpy and not staying steady for his pitcher as he’s busy worrying about runners or blocking or other aspects.
That hurdle in his work behind the plate is really the last thing he needs to polish before he is truly major league ready, but for many, that can be a 2-3 year process to develop those skills. Mejia has the raw abilities, and offensively, he’d immediately be one of the elite offensive performers in the entire league at the position.
11. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
In a game this last week, one of Baseball America’s writers epitomized everything that has Robles as high as #11 for me and also has him still out of the top ten for me. Robles took off on a bunt and made it to first base out of the right-handed batter’s box in 3.67 seconds, which would be faster than Byron Buxton’s leading number for the fastest time in the major leagues in 2016 by a right-handed hitter by 0.05 seconds.
Then, in the same game, Robles tracked a ball over his head and took his time making a “pretty” over-the-shoulder catch when he could have used that speed to get into position to get behind the ball and into position to make a throw, and a runner on second base was able to tag, not stop running, and make it all the way home for a run scored on Robles’ lackadaisical play.
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There is no doubt that Robles has the raw tools. He’s got plus grades from MLB Pipeline in the offseason on every tool but his power, and they even mention that it’s raw plus power, but currently not plus game power, so that’s a profile of a guy with five plus tools. The problem is that the tool that isn’t measured is often the one that matters most, and that’s the one that sits above the shoulders.
Robles could arguably have the most impressive pure baseball tools of any minor leaguer. He has legit ability to handle center field with excellent reads on balls and an arm that could be given double-plus ratings. He has legit 75-80 grade speed. He has plus bat speed and contact ability along with the raw power. However, right now, he’s struggled in my viewings in being consistent with his effort from play to play.
That all said, all reports are that the Nationals love his work ethic and makeup, and perhaps he has the ability to turn it on with the team guys around that I don’t get to see, but taking plays at 75% effort shows up fast once you get to the upper minors and especially the major leagues.
Robles is likely 2-3 years from that point, with a year at AA and a year at AAA still in his future, but he should be making a major league appearance at some point in 2019 and possibly vying for the starting center field job in 2020.
Anyone that surprised you? Anyone you disagreed with so far? Any of the evaluations that surprised you? Comment below, and come back the rest of the week for the rest of the list!