Seattle Mariners starting an important homestand
After their upcoming homestand, the Seattle Mariners play 21 of 28 games on the road, including a grueling four-city, 12-game road trip in the dog days of August.
With a week-and-a-half until the MLB trade deadline, the American League pennant race is wide open. Two of the three divisions in the AL are up for grabs (the AL West is in Houston’s back pocket), and 11 teams are within six games of a wild card spot. At 1.5 games back of the second wild card, the Seattle Mariners are in the mix among these 11 teams hoping to make the playoffs.
Every Mariner fan knows the history: the Mariners haven’t made the playoffs since 2001, which is the longest playoff drought of any MLB team. The last time they made the playoffs was during Ichiro’s rookie year. Ichiro is now 85 (not really; he’s only 43). In addition to this long stretch without a post-season appearance, the Mariners have never been to the World Series.
The team’s attendance numbers have reflected the disappointment of their fans. When the Mariners last made the playoffs during their historic 116-win season in 2001, they led all of baseball in attendance, averaging 43,302 fans per game (92 percent of capacity). They led the league again in 2002 and were second in baseball in 2003. When the non-playoff seasons started adding up, the fans began to stay away. The Mariners are averaging just over 25,000 fans per game this year, around 50 percent of capacity, which is their lowest average attendance since 2013.
A recent good stretch has pulled the Mariners to within 1.5 games of the second wild card spot, even though they are only playing .500 ball for the year. They’ve had an up-and-down season, with six separate winning streaks of four games or more along with four separate losing streaks of four games or more. They’ve also seen every pitcher in their expected starting rotation on the DL at some point this year and one of their best hitters, Jean Segura, missed three weeks in June.
To make the playoffs this year, the Mariners will have to outplay their competitors in the Wild Card race over the final 10 weeks of the season. This is how the wild card race looks now:
51-45 Tampa Bay Rays
48-45 New York Yankees
48-46 Minnesota Twins
48-48 Seattle Mariners
46-47 Kansas City Royals
47-50 Los Angeles Angels
45-49 Baltimore Orioles
45-49 Texas Rangers
43-50 Detroit Tigers
43-55 Toronto Blue Jays
43-52 Oakland Athletics
The Mariners have been better at home than on the road this year. At Safeco Field, they are 27-22 (.551). Away from Safeco, they’ve gone 21-26 (.447). They have a 10-game homestand that starts on Thursday against the team currently holding the second wild card spot, the New York Yankees. Then they face the Red Sox for three games and the Mets for three games, with a home day off between those two series.
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This is a key stretch for the Mariners. They’ve played better at home than on the road and play one of the teams they’re trying to catch in a four-game series to start off the homestand. King Felix Hernandez is on the bump for the opener and he’s facing the Yankees’ best starter this year, Luis Severino.
Hernandez hasn’t been his old self for some time now. His last great year was 2014. From 2009 to 2014, Hernandez had a 2.73 ERA (2.89 FIP) and 1.10 WHIP. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, he’s had a 3.73 ERA (4.24 FIP) and a 1.27 WHIP. This year has been his worst year in a decade (4.20 ERA, 5.07 FIP).
Hernandez came off a two-month DL stint in June and has gone 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA, but his 5.17 FIP suggests he’s still not the ace the team needs him to be down the stretch. His last two starts have been his best two starts since April. He’ll need to keep it going to get the Mariners off to a good start against the Yankees.
This homestand is so important because the team faces a very difficult stretch that starts with a three game series in Texas on July 31. They play nine games against the Rangers, Royals, and A’s, three teams who have combined to go 79-66 (.545) at home so far this year. They follow that with a seven game homestand against the Orioles and Angels where they can regroup and prepare for their most grueling road trip of the season.
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From August 18 to August 30, the Mariners travel across the country to play the Tampa Bay Rays for three games, the Atlanta Braves for three games, a day off, then the Yankees and Orioles for three games each. Those teams are a combined 104-80 (.565) at home. This stretch could make or break the Mariners. Because of the distance the Mariners travel, no other team in baseball has a road trip like this. That’s why this upcoming homestand is so important. They need to get some wins now because they’ll be much more difficult to get later.