Midseason MLB Top 50 Prospects: 1-10
As MLB gets on track in the second half, let’s look at how the top prospects have shifted over the first half.
Last offseason, Call to the Pen contributor Benjamin Chase presented a top 125 MLB prospects list, and he will provide a midseason update to that list here.
This list will include recent draft picks, but it will not include the most recent international free agents that were signed on July 2 as there is just too little truly known about those players right now. Of course, as you’ll see, a few players from the 2016 IFA class make the list, and they have had minimal playing time in pro baseball, but that’s still something to view compared to the showcases of those just signed.
We will be releasing the list 10 at a time, with an extra list on Friday of 25 players to watch in the second half of the season that could jump into the top 50 by the end of the season.
This list is compiled by Ben through his own viewings on these prospects and contacts with scouts, team officials, and other writers in the industry who have had a chance to see the players that he has not yet seen to get scouting reports on those guys. In general, most players have 3-5 reports to put together to review.
Players that are in the major leagues and have expired their rookie eligibility or are expected to do such this season are not included in this list, so guys like Bradley Zimmer, Sean Newcomb, and Clint Frazier are not included on this list as they are up for their teams and seemingly in a role that would portend them expiring their rookie eligibility, and Ben wanted to highlight those players who will retain prospect status by the end of the season most likely.
Let’s get to today’s group, the top ten!
10. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
In the 2015 draft, there were a number of college shortstops of interest at the top of the draft, and one high school shortstop. The Rockies chose to go with the high school option at #3 overall. They’ve certainly not been disappointed with the results, even if the guys taken ahead of him have already established themselves in the major leagues while Rodgers is just getting his feet wet at AA.
Rodgers has been blessed with heavy hitting home environments thus far, but, to his credit, he’s take advantage of them so far. In 2016, he was at hitter haven Asheville in the South Atlantic League, and he hit .281/.342/.480 overall with 31 doubles, 19 home runs, and 6 stolen bases. However, if you look at the splits, you see that Rodgers hit .319/.378/.600 in his home environment with 20 of the doubles and 13 of the home runs. On the road, he hit .247/.310/.372.
Coming into 2017, he opened in another hitter-friendly home environment with Lancaster in the Cal League. While he hit .400/.419/.700 in his time in high-A before being promoted with 21 doubles and 12 home runs, it was notable that he hit .495/.522/.883 at home with 14 doubles and 8 home runs. However, his road stats were still good in this case, as he hit .308/.312/.523.
Rodgers has struggled with the bump up to AA, hitting .227/.313/.375 thus far, though he’s flashed his home run power with 4 home runs in less than 100 plate appearances.
Rodgers has shown the ability to handle short if that’s the future for him in Colorado, and his power will be elite at the position. He has work to do in his strike zone recognition, as evidenced by his walk rate being under 4%, though he also is keeping his strikeout rate low. One of the elite young bats, his early struggles in AA should not dissuade away from the elite talent package that Rodgers brings to the table.
9. Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves
A modestly-priced signing out of Curacao in 2013, Albies opened his minor league career with a bang, announcing his presence, as he hit .364/.446/.444 combined between the Braves’ Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League affiliates at just 17 years old.
He moved to low-A Rome and hit .310/.368/.404 in the South Atlantic League as an 18 year old in 2015 before really exploding on the scene in 2016, when he combined to hit .292/.358/.420 between AA and AAA as a 19 year old with 49 extra bases and 30 stolen bases.
Sadly, Albies’ season ended when he fractured his elbow in a freak injury on a swing during the playoffs for AA Mississippi. Standing 5’9″ tall and weighing in at 165-175 pounds, scouts often mistake Albies for a slap-hitting player with minimal ability to generate power. Instead, Albies is able to generate tremendous power with his swing from both sides of the plate, though he focuses on line drive power that generates tons of extra base hits and even home runs in his explosive swing.
As he’s gained health in the elbow this season, Albies’ left-hand swing has really come around. He struggled early as the elbow gained strength after the injury last season. Albies is currently hitting .289/.335/.446 on the season, but since June 1st, Albies has really shown to be healthy, hitting .319/.367/.528 with 6 doubles, 5 triples, 6 home runs, and 7 stolen bases.
Albies’ defense is excellent at shortstop, and he’s shown to be an elite defender at second base, a position he moved to in order to defer to Dansby Swanson, who was at the major league level. He should get a major league trial this year at just 20 years old. Albies has yet to face a pitcher younger than him in his entire professional career.
8. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
The Braves picked up Acuna for a meager $100K signing bonus in 2014 out of Venezuela. Acuna opened his professional career splitting time between the two Braves rookie league affiliates, hitting .269/.380/.438 and drawing rave reviews immediately for his raw power among rookie league scouts along with his tremendous defense.
Acuna’s breakout season was supposed to be 2016, but an injury early in the year limited him to 40 games with Rome in the South Atlantic League, though even then, his .312/.387/.432 performance and batting practice displays left scouts drooling. He then went to the Australian winter league to get more reps, and he had a monster performance in that league, hitting .375/.446/.556.
After a spring training where the 19 year old hung around in major league camp for a long time, performing quite well the entire time, Acuna opened the season in high-A. He struggled out of the gate, something he’s attributed to essentially playing non-stop from the time he returned from his injury at the end of the 2016 season, including the winter league, but he rebounded well, earning a promotion to AA Mississippi, where he tore the league apart, hitting .326/.374/.520 as the youngest player in the Southern League. He was promoted recently again to AAA Gwinnett, and he’s continued to flash power. On the season, Acuna has hit .305/.360/.507 with 20 doubles, 6 triples, 14 home runs, and 33 stolen bases.
He is easily the highest riser in the rankings at the midseason mark, and it would not surprise if he ends up pushing into the top 5 by the end of the season. This is a special, special talent.
7. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox
Jimenez’s name has been in the news as he was the centerpiece return the White Sox received for Jose Quintana. He is certainly a legit power prospect, and at 20 years old, he’s shown tremendous ability to drive the ball already.
Jimenez’s legend began to grow last season when he blasted a monster home run in batting practice (among many long home runs) before the Futures Game in San Diego. He then made an acrobatic catch during the Futures Game and hit another long ball in the 9th inning of the game.
While that display was impressive, Jimenez’s performance at South Bend was less explosive. He hit .329/.369/.532, but his power was exhibited in his 40 doubles on the season, putting just 14 balls out of the park.
This season has been more of a home run show, as Jimenez has hit .288/.370/.514 with 9 doubles, 2 triples, and 9 home runs over 48 games after opening the season on the disabled list. He also put on another power show during the Carolina/Cal League All-Star game.
There’s no denying Jimenez’s power, and it is impressive the work he’s done to trim his strikeout rate to under 20%. However, he is limited to a likely future as a DH because, in spite of his excellent play in the Futures Game, he’s a below average defender. The bat is so good to still rank this highly, but I’m not sure I could justify any higher on the list.
6. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Torres was signed in the same class as Jimenez by the Cubs, out of Venezuela. He was a probable shortstop with an excellent bat and improving plate discipline when the Cubs included him as the centerpiece of the trade last season that brought Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees to Chicago.
Torres is 6’1″ and listed at 175 pounds, though I’d say that’s probably closer to 190ish by now as Torres has added some solid size, especially in his lower half. That added strength has shown up in his ability to drive the ball as well. Between AA and AAA this season as a 20 year-old, Torres hit .287/.383/.480 before a season-ending injury cut his 2017 short. He had already tallied 14 home runs, 2 triples, 7 home runs, and 7 stolen bases in just 55 games. Most impressive was the plate discipline that Torres has developed, as he walked 12.8% of the time and struck out at 20% of the time, which may seem high, but it’s technically a drop for the third straight season for Torres.
Torres has had questions about his defense from the get go, as he’s a wide-built athlete and more long-range speed that quickness. Torres worked extremely hard over the offseason and had refined his shortstop instincts to the point where he was a legit fringe-plus defender at the position, and his plus arm will always work from short. The Yankees did give Torres work at 2B and 3B this season, and he handled both fairly well. With the way he is filling out, I’d wager he’s likely to end up at 3B if he moves off of shortstop as his power plays well at the position.
For now, we will have to wait until 2018 to see Torres again, which is a shame as he likely would have been among the top 2-3 on this list had he not been injured.
5. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
With two picks in the top 5 of the 2015 draft due to not signing 2014 #1 overall selection Brady Aiken, the Astros could not have asked for a better result as #2 overall selection Alex Bregman has turned into the team’s starter at third base already, and Tucker has emerged as one of the top prospects in all of the game as the #5 pick.
Tucker had a brother already in the Astros system when he was drafted, Preston Tucker, but Kyle is much different in many ways from his brother in physical and baseball attributes. Kyle’s long, athletic build at 6’4″ left many to dream on the power he could add, and this season is starting to see that come to fruition. Kyle’s currently listed at 190, but I would wager that he’s probably at least 15 pounds heavier than that now, and there doesn’t look to be much, if any, bad weight to that gain.
At just 20 years old, Tucker opened the year in the Carolina League with Houston’s new franchise in the league, and he was simply terrorizing pitchers in the league, likely causing a celebration when he was promoted up to AA Corpus Christi in the Texas League. Interestingly, it could be argued that Tucker’s hitting as a more complete hitter in AA than he was in high-A, which is scary for the rest of baseball as he’s just continuing to add to his already impressive abilities at the plate.
Tucker’s left-handed swing is a thing of beauty, and he’s been able to use it to generate a combined line of .294/.371/.551 with 22 doubles, 5 triples, 17 home runs, and 19 stolen bases.
As impressive as all of this is, more impressive is that he’s done all this while being shifted around the outfield all year without a real home. While Tucker has the range to handle center and the above-average arm to do such as well, he has been placed with players who are definite CF-only types or are elite CFers, so he’s been playing a mix of all three outfield positions. He does track balls extremely well, which would make any position in the outfield a spot where he could be an asset to the team.
Tucker has pushed his time line forward significantly this season, likely opening 2018 in AAA with a taste of the majors if he does well and taking over a spot in the Astros outfield in 2019.
4. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
One of the more dynamic players in the entire minor leagues, Rosario was originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Mets in 2012. The Mets were aggressive with him, skipping him over the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League, sending him directly to the advanced rookie Appalachian League. He responded by understandably struggling but it would really be the last time he’d truly struggle on both sides of the ball.
Rosario began setting forth his defensive excellence over the next two seasons in the Mets system as he was filling into frame and finding the additional strength an asset at the plate. That additional power showed up in 2016, as Rosario combined between high-A and AA to hit .324/.374/.459 with 24 doubles, 13 triples, and 5 home runs, stealing 19 bases.
It’s been said that there are three types of lies – lies, dirty lies, and statistics. Rosario’s assignment this season is one where you have to put his statistics into context, but even then, he’s continuing to hit very well, as he’s hit .330/.368/.473 with 17 doubles, 7 triples, and 7 home runs with 17 stolen bases in the Pacific Coast League.
Rosario probably isn’t going to be a guy who will ever hit 30 home runs, but his calling card really was never his bat. He is one of the best defenders at short that you will find in the minor leagues – of course, don’t tell the Mets that, as they are rolling out some of the worst defense in the major leagues at shortstop while having Rosario work out at third base in AAA. He should be a guy that is worth the price of admission to watch him work with the glove once he does catch hold in Citi Field, and he’s developed the bat such that he should be a very productive piece of the lineup as well.
3. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays’ jewel of the 2015 international market was bringing the son of one of the most popular players in Canadian baseball history into their organization. Outside of the powerful swing, there’s little that would make you put father and son together physically. While Vlad, Sr. was tall and rangy, while Junior has a stout build, likely sitting around 220 pounds already on his 6’1″ frame, but much of it in the lower half, which helps him generate incredible power.
Initial reports from scouts reported that Vlad Jr. may have to move to 1B or even DH to work on the field, but he’s actually shown to have impressive instincts at the position, even if not great range. He definitely has a monster arm to get the ball across the infield.
The bat has never been a question. The Blue Jays pushed Guerrero up to advanced rookie Bluefield in the Appalachian League in 2016, and he just hit .271/.359/.449 against guys typically 4-5 years older than he was, with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 8 home runs, and even 15 stolen bases.
Guerrero opened in full-season ball this year in low-A Lansing in the Midwest League. After half a season it was clear he was beyond the level, and he’s been promoted to high-A Dunedin in the Florida State League. Combined on the year, Guerrero is hitting .312/.406/.460 with 21 doubles a triple, 7 home runs, and 7 stolen bases.
What is absolutely incredible to watch is that Guerrero has exceptional zone and pitch recognition already at a young age. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in his pro career, and currently, his strikeout rate sits just under 12% for his minor league career thus far. That is remarkably impressive.
Guerrero has established himself as one of the most elite prospects in the entire game, and he very well may rank #1 overall by the end of the season.
2. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
As the Red Sox were selling off pieces to get Craig Kimbrel, then Drew Pomeranz, and then Chris Sale, many were worried about the quality of prospects walking out the door, but one guy that they never put into those deals was Devers, and there’s good reason.
Signed in 2013 out of the Dominican Republic, Devers has always had a reputation for impressive batting practice displays, launching balls with incredible power all over the field and out of the park. His first experience in pro ball in 2014 combined between the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League as a 17 year old led to a .322/.404/.506 slash line with 17 doubles, 5 triples, and 7 home runs in only 70 games.
Devers moved up to full season ball with low-A Greenville in 2015, and he continued to spray hard shots around the park, hitting .282/.329/.443 with 38 doubles and 11 home runs. Bumped up to high-A in 2016, he had similar numbers, with a .282/.335/.443 line with 32 doubles, 8 triples, and 11 home runs, even stealing 18 bases. What was more impressive about his performance with Salem is that halfway through the month of May, Devers was still hitting .197 and went on such a tear to finish the season that he brought his batting average up almost 100 points.
Devers has worked hard to improve on his conditioning and his defense, two flags on him when he was signed. He’s made himself into one of the more rangy third basemen in the minor leagues, though he can get a bit hurried in his throws at times.
With AA Portland this season, Devers was absolutely destroying the ball before a recent promotion to AAA Pawtucket, putting him on the door step of the major leagues. He is hitting .304/.374/.583 with 20 doubles, 3 triples, and 20 home runs in just 83 games this season.
With the major league club having a major need at 3B, it would seem that the only way Devers is part of trade discussions is if it brought in someone who was one of the elite 3B in the league as he has moved to the role of one of the elite prospects in the game.
1. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
One of the most dynamic players to come to MLB from Cuba, Moncada drew interest from nearly every major league team, eventually earning a hefty pay day from the Red Sox.
Absolutely impressive physically, Moncada is built like a football safety, yet has the speed and baseball instincts to allow him to play up the middle defensively. While Moncada’s best position is 2B, he’s got the range and arm to handle third base or any outfield position as well.
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In his first exposure to professional ball, he hit .278/.380/.438 for low-A Greenville in 2015, with 19 doubles, 3 triples, 8 home runs, and 49 stolen bases in just 81 games, but he was just getting warmed up. In 2016, Moncada opened as part of a loaded Salem team, and he was absolutely destroying the level before he was pushed up to AA and the Red Sox attempted to alter his swing. The altered swing did result in more home runs, but it also resulted in a lot higher rate of swing and miss.
Moncada was called up to the big leagues, but he was not receiving consistent playing time and struggled with learning a new position, 3B, on the fly after having played 2B all but 10 games of the minor league season. Combined in the 2016 minor league season, he hit .294/.407/.511 with 31 doubles, 6 triples, 15 home runs, and 45 stolen bases.
In the offseason, Moncada was part of the deal that sent Chris Sale to the Red Sox from the White Sox. He has had some significant slumps with the AAA club in his new organization this year, but his overall stat line still is quite impressive, hitting .282/.377/.447 with 9 doubles, 3 triples, 12 home runs, and 17 stolen bases.
Moncada is still seemingly trying to self-correct the work the Red Sox did on his swing as he certainly does not look natural at the plate in the adjusted swing mechanics. When he swings “his” swing, he has much better contact rates and sprays line drives throughout the field.
The White Sox called up Moncada after the Todd Frazier trade to allow him to play full time at the major league level and get experience with the best.
Anyone that surprised you? Anyone you disagreed with so far? Any of the evaluations that surprised you? Comment below, and come back the rest of the week for the rest of the list!