Phillies’ Dollars and Sense
During the first half of 2017, promotion speculation began in mid-April because the first baseman and the catcher of the Philadelphia Phillies struggled offensively.
Rebuilding Reflections:
When you take a difficult path, you should expect depressing lows, exhilarating highs and a calm between extremes.
After the 1965 campaign, baseball instituted the draft and awarded the top picks to losing organizations. And several clubs built winning squads because of a handful of those selections with one leading to the 1980 Phillies. Unlike today, however, the front office didn’t have a structured plan, and luck played a bigger part in management’s success.
On the 25-man roster of the ’80 Phils, three core members arrived through the pipeline, and the ace came via a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. They had their first full campaigns between 1970 and 1973 because basically no one was blocking them. So, the key ingredients began suiting up during that three-year period.
Prior to the championship of the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, the higher-ups had added free agents to some talented players, before their cornerstones completely advanced to the majors. But the effort came up short, and the general manager was the scapegoat when the red pinstripes only finished in second place and were just shy of 90 victories. That stated, fans demanded a new exec for 2006 to put on the finishing touches and sit atop the NL East.
For these Phillies, two had to split time with veterans during their first complete 162. And when you examine the timeline, the promotions for the homegrown stars to considerable playing time went from 2001 to 2006. The starting-limited stars were regulars the following summer due to a swap and an injury respectively. Moreover, the important final piece, the number one, arrived in ’06 and needed a few seasons to shine in ’08.
During the last few campaigns, terms like tanking have a connection to rebuilding franchises because they deal away their high-priced regulars for multiple prospects. Depending, of course, on the available player – like a Cole Hamels – they can receive one or two blue-chippers. But front offices have no guarantee they’ll be stars or the secondary talent will be a pleasant surprise. No way to know.
ON THE OTHER HAND: “They (Expos fans) discovered ‘boo’ is pronounced the same in French as it is in English.” – Harry Caray
While the Phils dropped to the bottom in 2015 and received the first pick in the MLB Draft, many potential legends from 2008 changed their employment address. Then, Maikel Franco from their Triple-A affiliate and Odubel Herrera, a Rule 5 selection, demonstrated the unpolished talent currently experiencing growing pains. Incorrectly, the feeling was the worst was over because of a hot streak to begin the second half.
Last April and May, the Phils topped out at seven games over .500 and picked up where they left off with a fully recovered Franco in the lineup again. And even though the winning didn’t last, the faithful had thought about a Wild Card berth. In the meantime, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff were showing they could be 40 percent of a rotation. If healthy.
While Franco spent the first half figuring things out, Tommy Joseph proved 2016 wasn’t a fluke and gave the squad a cleanup hitter with power. And since Joseph had his April difficulties, the first sacker is batting .273 with 14 homers and 38 RBI. Simultaneously, Aaron Altherr has exceeded expectations with his average and his pop, while he’s held his own in any lineup slot.
After heeding the skipper’s challenge to live up to his potential, Nola has been dominant during his last six performances. He is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA for 42 1/3 innings since talking with Mackanin. Additionally, if Eickhoff – since he heard from the manager – has two more quality starts, he’ll have four good appearances out of five: the 80 percent goal. And others on the five-man staff have also excelled enough to warrant more opportunities.
Based on his track record, general manager Matt Klentak will go with a rotation of Nola, Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and a free agent hurler to provide needed experience for the young staff. And while Nola with his dominance and Eickhoff with his bulldog mentality will provide the consistency, Velasquez and Pivetta have the stuff GMs are looking for at the front of the starting five. Meanwhile, you can expect the smoke-throwing relievers to compete for the final three frames, and Klentak will add a seasoned arm or two to the pen during the winter.
Barring trades, injuries or unexpected events, Herrera, Franco, Joseph, Altherr and the double-play combo of Hernandez and Galvis will be in the Opening Day lineup. And Nick Williams is also a solid possibility, but he obviously must produce longer than 16 contests and 57 at-bats. Yet if anything is apparent this 162, the red and white have regulars who are still improving.
From the standpoint of players with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, you might see second baseman Scott Kingery next June – currently hitting .279 – if he convinces management he’s ready after 300-400 ABs. And receiver Jorge Alfaro with a solid first two months could get a shot if the organization is not comfortable with their current catching tandem. But keep in mind, right fielder Dylan Cozens is also waiting for a chance if Herrera, Altherr or Williams struggle or are on the disabled list.
CURVE BALL: “Purists maintain that if you go to a baseball game you will almost always see something you have never seen before. Unfortunately, it usually takes place in the stands.” – Joe Queenan
If you read the posts of fans at different sites, you’ll notice the blame-related parallels for the pitching coach. They should fire him, what are they waiting for? He’s ruined the starters; their injuries are all his fault. Fire him!
No, the coach isn’t currently on the hometown nine, and it happened in 2005 during the first of his 11 years with the Atlanta Braves. The problem was Atlanta enjoyed success from 1991 through 2004, and they took a healthy five-man staff for granted. Translation: Winning never ends!
As for Phillies sites, many locals have voiced the no-brainer moves expected. For instance, if he doesn’t swap Joseph – one fan posted – I’ll be angry (not his word). And – another pointed out – Joseph won’t be on the club when they are competitive again (the supporter either felt 20 months older than Rhys Hoskins is a major drawback or made an assumption).
The problem is that in April Hoskins hit .338 with six home runs and 12 RBI to Joseph’s .179 average with one long ball and seven RBI. But since the opening month ended, no fan has openly changed their mind. In other words, when you consider the reaction and expectations of paying customers – gate or cable – you can understand the reluctance of any franchise to a lengthy rebuild. Translation: The losing never ends!
When a writer examines the difference between Joseph and Hoskins – keep in mind – a .300 hitter can average .400 for the first two months and then .200 through July. However, a general manager decides more on recent stats; for instance, Williams’ advancement was due to a need and his last six games with the IronPigs. Of course, if Klentak doesn’t trade Joseph and promote Hoskins, the GM will receive the faithful’s scorn. But what has Hoskins done to force the issue? Well, he was batting .305 after the game on June 24 to .279 currently because he has a .198 mark for his last 22 contests. Ergo, now is not the time.
Stats from May 1 through July 21:
- Joseph, 26, 68 Gms., 249 AB, 68 H, .273, 14 HR and 38 RBI.
- Hoskins, 24, 72 Gms., 255 AB, 69 H, .271, 15 HR and 58 RBI.
- Cozens, 23, 71 Gms., 262 AB, 70 H, .267, 18 HR and 45 RBI.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine.” – Pat Conroy
If you look at the other Lehigh Valley hopefuls, Kingery is a long way from 100 games, and Alfaro will only be a September call-up because he’s on the 40-man roster. On the other hand, Cozens could hit his way to Philly shortly if he has a hot streak. However, he’s batting .229 with four bombs and 10 RBI for July.
From the management side of restructuring, the purpose isn’t to keep acquiring prospects for regulars because the team is losing. And the club won’t sign expensive free agents without winning at least half of their contests because even one big slugger won’t lead to serious October baseball. In other words, Klentak won’t bring in costly players to make Philadelphia attractive to high-priced stars.
Because restructuring isn’t cut-and-dried, the organization has to see what it has first. So, obviously, swapping minor leaguers for one household name would also be counterproductive. And although rookies add excitement, interest and an energy boost, they also make more mistakes.
NICE CATCH: “Some coaches believed they could judge a player’s performance simply by watching it. In this they were deeply mistaken. The naked eye was an inadequate tool for learning what you needed to know to evaluate baseball players and baseball games. Think about it. One absolutely cannot tell, by watching, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .275 hitter. The difference is one hit every two weeks. The difference between a good hitter and an average hitter is simply not visible-it is a matter of record.” – Michael Lewis
Next: The Pros and Cons of Phillies' Trading
Rebuilding is a trial-and-error process to find dependable starters, regulars and relievers out of a loaded pipeline, and with luck a few gems will also develop. But if the red pinstripes have a reliable player to count on, what is the one thing they won’t trade or replace him for? A maybe!