Who would win the NL Wild Card matchup: Arizona or Colorado?

As of now, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies would qualify for the two Wild Card spots in the National League. They have each won six games against the other so far this year, but who would win in the bright lights of October?

October is a ways away but it looks like the playoff situation in the National League could already be set. With the Dodgers absolutely creaming every team in their way, the Rockies and Diamondbacks won’t be able to play catch-up much longer.

That leaves the two Wild Card spots. Unless another team, specifically the Brewers, makes a push, you could be looking at the matchup. Two newer managers, two powerful offenses and two hitter-friendly ballparks.

It would be a lot of fun. If it does happens, who would win?

Starting Pitcher

Barring some sort of injury or a plague of dehydration, Zack Greinke would get the call in a Wild Card Game. That’s bad news for any opponent.

The right-hander has enjoyed a bounce-back season after a disappointing campaign in 2016. He currently owns a 2.92 ERA and has whiffed 140 hitters, ranking 14th in the league.

Here’s the kicker: Greinke is practically unbeatable at home. He has yet to lose at Chase Field this year, accumulating a 10-0 record and posting an impressive 2.39 ERA. On the road? He’s 2-4 with a 3.75 ERA, which still isn’t that bad.

But Coors Field can make any ace look like they’re Mike Pelfrey on the mound.

Greinke has had some success against Colorado in the past, but it’s not stunning. He owns a stable 4.00 ERA against them in 24 appearances – 23 of those were starts. Even at Coors, he’s somehow managed to accrue a 4.14 ERA despite having a WHIP above 1.50.

Unless he’s pitching in an AL East stadium – he possesses a 6.53 ERA in games pitched there – Greinke is always going to be tough to beat.

There’s no telling who Colorado manager Bud Black would hand the ball to in this situation.

The Rockies stamped “ace” onto Jon Gray’s back before the season began, but after a lengthy stint on the disabled list, he hasn’t looked the same. Kyle Freeland has been the most reliable starter on paper, even though he doesn’t boast overpowering stuff.

German Marquez has been a quality-start machine this month, but he’s still allowing multiple earned runs a game. With a club’s season on the line, all it takes is one run to thwart their playoff efforts.

No matter who Black throws on the bump, it would be hard to come out on top over a seasoned veteran in Greinke, who also has a terrifying offense to back him up. Whoever would get the start, Black would likely utilize his bullpen early.

Advantage: Arizona

Bullpen

Arizona’s pitching staff overall has been a huge surprise this year. Maybe the biggest shocker of the year.

The bullpen squad hasn’t disappointed either. Relievers own a combined 3.56 ERA, sixth best in the league. That’s with Fernando Rodney as the team’s closer, which is just a bit insane – he has a 5.08 ERA this year.

Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin headline the relief corps, and they have delivered nothing but zeroes in most of their appearances. Bradley, who had a rough go as a starting pitcher, has found his niche in the pen, posting a 1.53 ERA, ninth-best for relievers with more than 30 innings.

If anyone was Torey Lovullo, they would keep Rodney out of late-innings situations. It probably wouldn’t be a terrible idea.

Colorado’s bullpen is capable of shutting down opponents. It did so early this season. A rejuvenated Greg Holland, combined with an effective Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee, made it difficult for any team to make a last-minute comeback.

Relievers haven’t been as good since the All-Star break for the NL West club, combining for a 6.98 ERA in 38 2/3 innings. Only Mike Dunn and Holland have been reliable.

If the Rockies ever take a lead into the ninth, surely Black wouldn’t be nervous, given that Holland is 31-for-32 in save opportunities this year. Still, the bullpen has been too shaky as of late. Holland can’t notch a save if there’s no lead.

Advantage: Arizona

Offense

Neither of the two teams struggle scoring, as each rank within the top 10 in runs and slugging percentage.

Each team boasts a top-heavy lineup. Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb and new addition J.D. Martinez have torn the cover off the ball this year, each hitting at least 20 home runs. Martinez and Goldschmidt are hitting .300 or better.

More from Call to the Pen

But other guys, like Chris Owings and David Peralta, have upped their game at the dish and proven themselves as productive hitters. At home, Arizona might be the best offensive team in the league. The only team with more runs at home is Colorado – shocker.

The D-Backs haven’t been quite as imposing on the road or against the Rockies’ pitching staff. Arizona’s offense ranks 25th in runs scored and batting average on the road. Against Colorado, players have hit .248 with 14 homers.

Black’s battalion of hitters have been impressive, as they are every year. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado have been stellar again. Blackmon is making a case for MVP consideration, hitting .326 with a near-1.000 OPS. Arenado leads the league in RBI.

Like the Diamondbacks, the Rockies have had a few surprises. Mark Reynolds hasn’t had as great a season as someone like Ryan Zimmerman, but he’s exceeded expectations by pretty much any analyst. He’s got a .284/.373/.519 line, which is fantastic for a guy supposedly past his prime.

There have also been some major disappointments in Colorado, however. Carlos Gonzalez has had a dismal season, hitting .227 with just six home runs. The lefty hit at least 20 bombs in six of the past seven seasons.

Shortstop Trevor Story has been in a sophomore slump for much of the year. He hasn’t reached his 2016 form yet, and he may not before the season ends. The young slugger has hit 14 home runs, but is hitting .234 with the most strikeouts on the team.

Both teams boast an intimidating offense that can punish any opposing pitcher, even Greinke.

Advantage: Neither

One game would determine whether these teams could make a playoff run. They are similar teams, both possessing game-changing hitters and a few reliable pitchers here and there.

Both teams’ managers are new to their scene, as they are each in their first campaign with their respective clubs. But the major difference in the game could come down to who’s on the mound.

Next: D-Backs giving Murphy another chance in the bigs

I think anyone would agree that Greinke and Arizona’s bullpen are much more dependable than anyone Black can throw out there.

For that reason, the Diamondbacks would be more likely to win, even though the Rockies’ offense could change that with a few swings of the bat. I guess we will have to wait until October to find out, at least if both teams earn playoff berths.

Home / Arizona Diamondbacks