There are only a few days left for the Texas Rangers to decide what to do with Yu Darvish. What is weighing on the mind of GM Jon Daniels? What are the pros and cons of keeping Yu Darvish?
The MLB trade deadline is only a few days away. Many dominos are left to fall, some which we fully expect, and others that will startle us. The most intriguing piece on the market is Texas Rangers ace, Yu Darvish. Not only is Darvish the most talented pitcher on the trade market, but he is also the biggest question mark.
The Rangers’ front office has shown no certainty in their intentions with Darvish. One day GM Jon Daniels will seem open to trading Darvish, and the next day he’ll seem hesitant. It doesn’t help that Texas is 4-6 in their last 10 games and still flirting with a wild-card berth.
What also doesn’t help is Yu Darvish’s inconsistency. Darvish is 0-2 in his last four starts with a 4.78 ERA. His inconsistency can simply be illustrated by his last two outings. Darvish logged eight innings and struck out a season high 12 Tampa Bay Rays last Friday. He followed that outing by pitching 3.2 innings, giving up a career high 10 earned runs against the Miami Marlins Wednesday night. Perhaps the outing was a result of the surrounding trade rumors. Wednesday’s start may make Yu Darvish less attractive, but more expendable.
Ultimately, the decision boils down to Darvish’s current team, as they have the final say. Jon Daniels must weigh the pros and cons of keeping/trading their long time ace.
Pros
Playoff Push
The idea of making a championship push is the sole reason Yu Darvish hasn’t already been shipped away. Texas obviously needs their ace if they want to make the playoffs, and they need their ace if they want to compete in October. Forfeiting Yu Darvish would essentially mean forfeiting the season.
As tempting as a rebuild may be, it’s difficult for any team with a fighting chance to completely abandon their seasonal goal. Jon Daniels has implied he intends to live in the now and go for it. Daniels expressed his stance on his team’s current position in a Dallas Sportsday article:
"We are confident that we can play well for an extended period. I know they are confident they can, too. I look at the competition for the wild card and I think we stack up well."
The Texas Rangers have become a feared team over the last decade. They have customarily acted as buyers in recent trade deadlines and they have grown to the expectation of championship or bust year after year. Moving Yu Darvish would break that tradition.
Shohei Otani
Surely you’ve heard of Shohei Otani by now. Otani is the two-way Japanese phenom better known as the “Japanese Babe Ruth”. Though, rumor has it, he is a substantially better athlete than the Great Bambino. However, like Babe Ruth, Shohei Otani both hits and pitches.
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Otani is known to be equally impressive at the plate as on the bump. He hits tape measure home runs and can also light up the radar gun. You could imagine why so many MLB teams are looking to break down the door to meet with him once negotiations are allowed.
What does this have to do with Yu Darvish? Simply put, Shohei Otani is said to idolize Yu Darvish. The Rangers seem to think a union with his idol might be a convincing factor. It certainly gives Texas an unmatched bargaining chip. That is, if they keep Yu Darvish.
A Sign of Loyalty
All of this Yu Darvish trade talk is a result of his pending free agency. Darvish will be a free agent at the end of the 2017, therefore, he would be a two-month rental for any team he may land with. No matter what happens by July 31st, Darvish will have his freedom of choice in a matter of months. He can go anywhere, even back to Texas.
The Rangers have a tremendous opportunity to show their faith in their longtime ace. Through all the gossip, holding onto Darvish for the remainder of the season could really play to Texas’ favor come the offseason. Ownership would still have to bring the bank, but maybe Yu Darvish would take a loyalty discount to come back to Texas.
Cons
Pending free agency
Yu Darvish could return to the Rangers in the offseason, however, the Rangers will be swimming with 29 other fish in the sea. Additionally, keeping Darvish through the trade deadline would mean passing up an opportunity for a generous rebuild.
A chance to move an all-star, cream of the crop player such as Yu Darvish does not come along often. It is a given that Darvish will return at least a couple elite prospects if the Rangers are to deal him. Texas could take a major step towards the future if they unloaded him.
Worst case scenario, the Rangers keep Yu Darvish for the rest of the year, but lose him to free agency. The lone benefit to that concerning scenario is that the Rangers could save some cap space for 2018. If they don’t trade Darvish this week, that scenario is likely to come to fruition.
Big Game Struggles
Enough trade/free agency talk, let’s get back to the field. Say the Rangers were to keep Darvish to make a playoff push, would he be worth it? If you base the answer off recent history, then no.
Yu Darvish has struggled in the closing months of the regular season throughout his career. He posted a 2-2 record with a 4.40 ERA between September and October in 2016. Likewise, in 2014, Darvish was 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his closing month of the season (he missed 2015 due to Tommy John Surgery). To his defense, the Rangers were nowhere near contention in 2014.
Despite the Rangers’ playoff frequency, Yu Darvish has minimal playoff experience. Darvish experienced a three-year lapse between playoff starts prior to last year’s appearance. And last year’s appearance did not go well. The Ranger ace pitched five innings against the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing five earned runs, including four home runs. Granted, the Blue Jays are the Rangers’ kryptonite, however, it is the ace’s job to triumph the kryptonite in high pressure moments.
History is not in the Texas Rangers’ favor if they are to run with Darvish to close out the season.
Is he even a true ace?
Yu Darvish is certainly known and respected as an ace. He is a prominent strikeout pitcher who’s engrossed fans ever since he came to the states. But aces eat innings and earn wins. Those are two things Darvish has struggled with, especially this season.
He is averaging 6.2 innings per start and has a very poor 6-9 win/loss record. Wins are not the all-telling statistic that they used to be, however, it’s not characteristic of an ace to have a losing record.
Darvish will seek a payday comparable to the premier aces around the league this offseason. Therefore, let’s compare him statistically to the premier aces around the league.
Red Sox’ Chris Sale is 13-4 and is averaging just over seven innings pitched per appearance. Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians is 8-3 in just 16 starts this season. He is averaging 6.75 innings pitched per start. Though injured for most of the year, Astros’ Dallas Keuchel is 9-0 and has notched nearly seven innings per start.
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Point being, Yu Darvish has not helped his team the way that true aces have helped theirs. Darvish’s talent is without question, but in the sixth year of his MLB career, he still has not developed the coveted “it” factor that the league’s top-tier starting pitchers have. The lack of the “it” factor will cause shoppers to hesitate. If a team does acquire him at the deadline, they will be risking a lot for an unproven postseason pitcher.