Dodgers could finish in the top 10 all-time in single-season wins

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a good chance to join an elite group of teams with 108 or more wins in a single season.

Through their first 107 games, the Los Angeles Dodgers have 75 wins, giving them a winning percentage of .701. They are six games better than the next-best team in baseball, the Houston Astros, and hold a 14-game lead in the NL West. This is true despite the Dodgers losing a game in which they had the lead for the first time since May 15 when they lost to the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday. Before that loss, they had a major-league-record streak of 53 wins in games in which they led at any point. For two-and-a-half months, when they had a lead, they held the lead.

As good as they’ve been this year, the Dodgers have a big hill to climb to pass the all-time record of 116 wins in a season. The 1906 Chicago Cubs (116-36) and 2001 Seattle Mariners (116-46) have the most wins in a season, with the 1998 New York Yankees (114-48) sitting just two wins behind. Here are the top 11 teams with the most regular season wins:

116-36, .763—1906 Chicago Cubs (won World Series)

116-46, .716—2001 Seattle Mariners (lost ALCS)

114-48, .704—1998 New York Yankees (won World Series)

111-43, .721—1954 Cleveland Indians (lost World Series)

110-42, .724—1909 Pittsburgh Pirates (won World Series)

110-44, .714—1927 New York Yankees (won World Series)

109-53, .673—1961 New York Yankees (won World Series)

109-53, .673—1969 Baltimore Orioles (lost World Series)

108-54, .667—1975 Cincinnati Reds (won World Series)

108-54, .667—1970 Baltimore Orioles (won World Series)

108-54, .667—1986 New York Mets (won World Series)

The Dodgers’ current .701 winning percentage would put them in the ballpark of the 1998 New York Yankees. That being said, taking a team’s current winning percentage and projecting them to continue to win that many games going forward is the optimistic fan approach and it’s not the best way to project a team’s final win total. Generally, teams that play well will regress “down” toward .500, just as teams that play poorly will regress “up” toward .500.

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One example of a team playing at an incredible level before regressing is the 1984 Detroit Tigers. They had one of the hottest starts in recent history. They started the year 35-5 and looked unbeatable, with an astonishing .875 winning percentage. Over the rest of the season, they were 69-53, a .566 winning percentage.

The two most recent teams on this list, the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, each slowed down over the final two months of the season after torrid starts. The Mariners didn’t slow down much, though. They were 77-30 (.720) over their first 107 games, putting them on pace to win just over 116 games. They went 39-16 (.709) over the rest of the season, which is still a sizzling pace. That’s how they equaled the all-time record of 116 wins in a season.

Amazingly, the Mariners really should have won 117 games that year. On August 5, 2001, they took a quick 12-0 lead over the Cleveland Indians and had a 14-2 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh. Then Cleveland made an incredible comeback and won the game in 11 innings. Two of the main contributors to the Cleveland comeback were Kenny Lofton and Omar Vizquel. It seemed like they were on base every inning over the last part of that game.

The 1998 New York Yankees had a better record than the 2001 Mariners through their first 107 games. The Yankees were 79-28 (.738), putting them four games ahead of the current Dodgers. The Yankees went 35-20 (.636) over the rest of the season and ended up with 114 wins.

For the Dodgers to set the all-time single-season record for wins, they would need to go 42-13 (.764) down the stretch. They recently ended a stretch in which they went 40-6, but to continue to play at that level is very unlikely, especially with Clayton Kershaw on the DL. Yu Darvish was a nice pickup at the trade deadline, but he’s no Clayton Kershaw.

A more realistic goal would be to join the 11 teams in the 108-win club shown above. The Dodgers would need to go 33-22 (.600) to get to that mark, which happens to be exactly what the FanGraphs Depth Charts are projecting for the Dodgers. If they snag an extra win somewhere along the way, they can get to 109 wins and in the top 10 for most wins in a season.

Winning 108 games is elite territory and the teams that have won that many games previously have been very successful in the postseason. Among that group, only the 2001 Seattle Mariners failed to make it to the World Series. Eight of the remaining 10 teams won the title. The two teams who lost the World Series lost in stunning defeats—the 1969 Orioles losing to the Miracle Mets and the 1954 Indians getting swept by the New York Giants.

Next: Padres believe they still hold winning Hand

The Dodgers are long shots to break the single-season record for wins, but a historic season is well within reach. They started the year with 35 wins in their first 60 games, a winning percentage of .593. Then they had that amazing 40-6 stretch to run their record to 75-31. If they can play as well as they did before the hot streak, they’ll get to 108 wins and be among the top 11 winningest teams in baseball history.