San Diego Padres believe they still hold a winning Hand

The San Diego Padres surprised some people by keeping Brad Hand past the trade deadline, but they’re confident the decision will pay off.

In the days following the MLB trade deadline, it seems we talk as much about the deals that didn’t get made as the ones that did. For weeks it appeared all but certain that the San Diego Padres would move left-handed reliever Brad Hand. He’s having a great season, and everyone remembers the prospect haul the Yankees received for Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller last summer. Surely the Friars would take advantage of the high demand for dominant bullpen arms among contending teams.

But when the 4:00pm deadline passed on Monday, Hand remained in San Diego. He wasn’t the only buzzworthy relief pitcher to stay put, as the Orioles also chose to hold on to Zach Britton (another decision that is being debated by fans and media). However, many other prominent relievers did switch teams, including Justin Wilson, David Robertson, Addison Reed and Brandon Kintzler.

The Padres traded a couple of their other bullpen residents by sending Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter to the Royals, but Hand surprisingly did not follow them out the door.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller “worked right up until the deadline,” but ultimately did not find a deal he was comfortable with, per Dennis Lin of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Preller said that Hand’s free agency timetable had a lot to do with the decision to keep him for now:

“When you look at a player that we have control over for the next 2 1/2 years, there was no rush for us to reach out and do anything. If we got to a point where I was able to go to ownership and to our fanbase and find a player or group of players that I felt bring more value than an All-Star-caliber reliever, that’s what we were going to examine. Anything short of that, from our standpoint, we were very content moving forward with Brad.”

Yes, Hand is under team control through the 2019 campaign, so the Padres weren’t exactly forced to trade him now at risk of losing him for nothing over the winter. But as Lin explains, it’s unlikely the 27-year-old’s value will get much higher than its current level. Hand’s big-league breakout occurred last year, when he posted a 2.92 ERA in a league-high 82 appearances. Before that, he managed a 4.71 ERA over five seasons as both a starter and reliever.

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Hand is doing a convincing job in 2017 of proving that last year’s success was no fluke. He boasts a sparkling 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 5.14 K/BB ratio in 55 frames. He’s struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings since the start of last season, after averaging just 5.9 K/9 before that. Hand is also stifling left-handed hitters to the tune of a .169 batting average this year.

From the look of things, San Diego may have overplayed its hand in marketing its lefty reliever. (Pun may or may not be intended.) The early word was that the Padres were holding out for a king’s ransom in exchange for Hand. As July 31 drew closer, reports surfaced that they were gradually lowering their asking price. Preller’s initial demands may have pushed interested teams to turn elsewhere, and by the time he compromised it was too late to really get anything done.

The trade deadline tends to be an ideal time to shop relievers. Contenders are more likely to overpay when they’re in the heat of the race and have seen their bullpen vulnerabilities up close. There are exceptions, as the Padres shipped Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox during the 2015 offseason for a package of prospects including Manuel Margot. But as Lin points out, that’s not a perfect comparison given Kimbrel’s more well-established resume and reputation at the time.

Next: August waiver trade candidates

It seems inevitable that the Padres will trade Hand eventually. When they do, they will hope to look wise for keeping him at this year’s deadline rather than having squandered a great opportunity.

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