Don’t count out Mike Trout for AL MVP

Missing 40 games with an injury has put Trout behind in the AL MVP race, but he’s projected to pull even with Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve by season’s end.

It’s easy to write off Mike Trout for the AL MVP award this year. He missed almost seven weeks of the season with a thumb injury and has currently played about 40 fewer games than the other position player contenders. By traditional metrics, he’s 35 runs, 14 home runs and 28 RBI behind Aaron Judge and he trails Jose Altuve in batting average, .361 to .335.

Then again, he has the best on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the AL and has been the best hitter in the league by far based on wRC+, which adjusts for league and park effects. As amazing as it sounds for a guy who has been at an MVP level in each of his five full seasons, he’s been better than ever this year.

Buster Olney had the best analogy when he compared Mike Trout to The Freeze. The Freeze is a masked sprinter mascot for the Atlanta Braves. Between innings during Braves games, The Freeze races a fan from foul pole to foul pole, but he’ll give the fan a significant advantage by waiting four or five seconds before he takes off. The fan starts running, assumes a big lead, then The Freeze tracks him down. It’s like the fan is suddenly running in slow motion and The Freeze is in fast-forward. In the AL MVP race, Mike Trout is The Freeze.

It won’t be easy for Trout to win the award, of course. There are some biases in play. The top four position player contenders for the AL MVP award are Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, and Mike Trout. Currently, Judge and Altuve are on a tier of their own, with Betts and Trout on the next tier down, along with Andrelton Simmons and Jose Ramirez. Trout will likely blow right past Simmons, Ramirez, and Betts, leaving just the Big Three of Judge, Altuve and Trout by the end of the season.

Based on their current stats and their FanGraphs rest-of-season projections, the Big Three’s end-of-season projected stats look like this:

667 PA, 115 R, 47 HR, 109 RBI, 8 SB, .285/.400/.591, 7.2 WAR—Aaron Judge

681 PA, 106 R, 21 HR, 89 RBI, 33 SB, .349/.409/.543, 7.1 WAR—Jose Altuve

491 PA, 85 R, 32 HR, 81 RBI, 19 SB, .322/.443/.649, 7.1 WAR—Mike Trout

And there it is. Even though Judge and Altuve will have a significant playing time and counting stats advantage, Trout is projected to be their equal in Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per FanGraphs). Give Mike “The Freeze” Trout another month or so and he would leave Judge and Altuve in the dust, like the fan in Atlanta who fell on his face.

Of course, the BBWAA doesn’t pick the MVP based on WAR. Some voters use it; others ignore it. Many voters dock players who aren’t on playoff teams and Judge and Altuve are better positioned to get the playoff team advantage. Trout won’t have the traditional statistical numbers voters like to see, even if he’s every bit as valuable as Judge and Altuve despite missing 40 games.

Trout is projected to finish with 113 games played. If he plays in all of the Angels remaining games, he’ll finish with 117 games played. That would equal the total of the 1980 AL MVP, George Brett. Despite playing 40 fewer games than the other top players in the league, Brett led the AL in WAR in 1980, with 9.1. Rickey Henderson (7.8) was second and Willie Wilson (7.0) was third, but they finished 10^th and 4^th, respectively, in MVP voting. Reggie Jackson was 12^th in WAR (5.0) but finished second in the voting. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for a player with so few games played to win the MVP Award, but it is very unlikely.

The wild card in the AL MVP race this year could end up being the AL Wild Card. If the Angels make the playoffs, Trout would get more consideration, especially if he has some key late-game heroics down the stretch. The Angels have won three straight games and are three games back of the Royals for the second wild card spot, with the Rays (half-game back) and Mariners (2.5 games back) between them.

Next: Dodgers pushing for wins record

The Angels are four games behind the Yankees, who own the top wild card spot. If Trout leads the Angels past the Yankees, he wouldn’t lose the playoff team advantage over Judge when voting time comes. Altuve will be a tougher guy to run down because the Astros have such a commanding lead in the AL West, but if anyone can do it, The Freeze can.