The 2017 Houston Astros have a better offense than the 1927 New York Yankees

After adjusting for league and ballpark effects, the 2017 Houston Astros have been better on offense than any team in history, including the 1927 New York Yankees.

When it comes to the greatest hitting teams of all-time, the 1927 New York Yankees are always at or near the top of every list. The team was incredible. That was the year three Yankees finished first, second, and third in home runs in the American League. Babe Ruth hit 60 long balls, Lou Gehrig had 47 and Tony Lazzeri launched 18.

There are other Yankees teams who always rank high among the greatest-hitting teams of all time, including a few from 1930 to 1936. The 1950 Boston Red Sox, one of seven teams to score more than 1,000 runs in a season, are usually part of the conversation. Among teams in the last 25 years, the 1996 Seattle Mariners came up seven runs short of a 1,000-run season and had four 100-RBI guys and five players with 23 or more home runs. More recently, the 2003 Boston Red Sox had a very good season with the bats.

When it comes to evaluating the greatest offensive teams in baseball history, it’s not as simple as using a team’s runs scored or home runs or batting average. The level of offense has gone up and down throughout the history of the game. Many of the teams considered to have the greatest offenses of all-time played in high-scoring eras, times when offense dominated the game.

As an example, it would be unfair to compare the 1930 Cubs, who hit .309/.378/.481 and scored 998 runs, to the 1968 Detroit Tigers, who hit .235/.307/.385 and scored 671 runs. The Cubs played in a much more friendly environment for offense. In 1930, NL teams averaged .303/.360/.448. American League teams in 1968 averaged .230/.297/.339. A look at the raw numbers would say the ’30 Cubs had a much better offense than the ’68 Tigers, no question, but the run-scoring environment was too different to easily compare these teams.

This brings us to the metric that makes adjustments for the league run-scoring environment and the home ballpark of the team. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player or team compares to league average after controlling for ballpark effects. League average is 100. A player or team with a 120 wRC+ has created 20 percent more runs than a league average player or team. Using wRC+, the ’68 Tigers had a better offense than the ’30 Cubs, with a 108 wRC+ for the Tigers to a 107 wRC+ for the Cubs.

By this metric, the 2017 Houston Astros have the best offense in MLB history, (albeit at the two-thirds mark of the season; the next two months will determine where they end up on the all-time list). There were three teams in the infancy of baseball with a higher wRC+ than the Astros, but we’ll set aside the 1875 Boston Red Stockings of the now-defunct National Association, the 1884 St. Louis Maroons of the Union Association, which lasted just one season, and the 1876 Chicago White Stockings, who had the best team in the first year of the National League, back when baseball was a very different game.

I can hear the traditional baseball fan now, scoffing at the idea that this year’s Astros team has a better offense than the ’27 Yankees after adjusting for league and ballpark effects. Let’s call this fan, Chris “Mad Dog” Russo. He would wave his hands around and yell and scream, saying there’s no way the 2017 Astros can compare to the ’27 Yankees. Here’s a sample Mad Dog rant:

I can hear him now. “Are you kidding me?” he would yell. “Oh, jeez, c’mon!” he would add, with a dismissive hand wave. “That’s ridiculous!” he’d scream, as his face gets redder and his hand gestures get wilder. “Get your head out of your spreadsheet and watch a game for once! There’s no way the 2017 Astros have a better offense than the ’27 Yankees!” he would shriek.

And he would be wrong. They do, through their first 109 games. Context is everything and the Astros, in the context of the 2017 American League, have a better offense than the Yankees in 1927, when league and ballpark adjustments are factored in.

Here are the top 10 hitting teams of all-time, based on Weighted Runs Created Plus.

Number 9

2007 New York Yankees, 119 wRC+

94-68, .580, AL wild card, lost in ALDS

.290/.366/.463, .361 wOBA—Yankees

.271/.338/.423, .333 wOBA—League Average

The 2007 Yankees didn’t have a hitter as productive as Babe Ruth on the 1932 Yankees, but they did have the equivalent of 1932 Lou Gehrig in Alex Rodriguez (175 wRC+). By this metric, the 2007 season was peak A-Rod as a hitter. He hit .314/.422/.645, with 143 runs scored, 54 home runs, and 156 RBI. He even added 24 steals at an 86% success rate and won the third of his three AL MVP Awards.

Alex Rodriguez was 31 years old in 2007 and had averaged 159 games played and 47 home runs per year over the previous seven years. Over the next five years, he would average 124 games and 26 home runs per year. Here he is hitting his 53^rd home run of the year.

Other strong hitters on this team were Jorge Posada (157 wRC+), Derek Jeter (125 wRC+), Hideki Matsui (124 wRC+), and third-year player Robinson Cano (119 wRC+). As a team, the Yankees scored 81 more runs than the next-best team and out-homered the next-closest team by 11 big flies. They weren’t just sluggers, either, as they finished fourth in the AL in steals.

Despite their stellar offense, the 2007 Yankees lost to Cleveland in the ALDS. The next year, they failed to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 seasons (excluding the 1994 season that ended in with a work stoppage in August).

Number 8

1902 Pittsburgh Pirates, 120 wRC+

103-36, .741, won the NL (no World Series that year)

.286/.344/.374, .346 wOBA—Pirates

.259/.313/.319, .307 wOBA—League Average

The Pittsburgh Pirates were the best team in the National League each year from 1901 to 1903, thanks in large part to the “Flying Dutchman,” Honus Wagner and player-manager Fred Clarke. The best of these teams was the 1902 version that is the eighth-best hitting team of all-time by wRC+. This team is still the franchise leader in winning percentage in a season and one of only two Pirates teams to win 100 or more games in a season.

Their team stats don’t look impressive, but you have to consider the context of the Dead Ball Era. The Pirates slugged .374 in a league in which the average slugging percentage was .319. They were also much better than league average in batting average and on-base percentage. To get an idea of just how much better the Pirates were than the rest of the NL, consider that they scored 774 runs, while the second-best total was the 632 runs by the Cincinnati Reds. As a per game average, the Pirates scored 5.5 runs per game, while the rest of the league averaged 3.8 runs per game.

Honus Wagner (159 wRC+), Fred Clarke (158 wRC+), and Ginger Beaumont (151 wRC+) were the top three hitters on the 1902 Pirates. They each scored 100 or more runs and had 29 or more steals. The team also had three other regulars and two half-time players who were at least 20 percent better than league average. After winning the National League by 27.5 games, the Pirates went home to work their off-season jobs because there was no World Series yet. That would begin after the 1903 season.

Number 7

2003 Boston Red Sox, 120 wRC+

95-67, .586, wild card winner, lost in ALCS

.289/.360/.491, .364 wOBA—Red Sox

.267/.333/.428, .330 wOBA—League Average

This was the Red Sox team the year before they ended their long World Series drought. This Red Sox team finished second in the AL East for the sixth season in a row, but the offense was not to blame. The main driver of the offense was a league-best .491 slugging percentage, which was .036 higher than the second-best Blue Jays and .063 higher than league average.

Four members of the 2003 Red Sox were at least 45 percent better than league average, including Manny Ramirez (158 wRC+), Trot Nixon (152 wRC+), Bill Mueller (145 wRC+), and David Ortiz (145 wRC+). This was Bill Mueller’s career year. He led the league in batting average and won the Silver Slugger Award at third base, the only time he would do either in his 11-year career.

This was also the last good full season Nomar Garciaparra had with the Boston Red Sox. He hit .301/.345/.524, with 120 runs, 28 home runs, 105 RBI, and 19 steals while playing 156 games for the second year in a row. He would be traded to the Cubs the following season and never play more than 122 games in a season over the last six years of his career.

Number 6

1982 Milwaukee Brewers, 120 wRC+

95-67, .586, lost the World Series

.279/.335/.455, .348 wOBA—Brewers

.264/.328/.402, .326 wOBA—League Average

The Milwaukee Brewers have been in existence since 1969. They started out as the Seattle Pilots before Bud Selig carjacked them from Seattle and moved them to Milwaukee. In the 49 years they’ve been in existence, they’ve made the postseason four times. Two of those years came back-to-back in 1981 and 1982. The 1982 team was led by Robin Yount and is the sixth-best hitting team of all-time, according to wRC+.

Yount had a Hall of Fame career while playing shortstop in the first half of his career and center field in the second half. He was still a full-time shortstop in 1982 and very good with the glove. He also hit .331/.379/.578, with career bests in runs (129), home runs (29), and RBI (114). He was worth 9.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per FanGraphs), which was more than three wins better than his next-best season. He won the AL MVP Award by getting 27 of the 28 first-place votes.

Helping Yount on this hard-hitting squad were Cecil Cooper (140 wRC+), Stormin’ Gorman Thomas (136 wRC+), and Paul Molitor (131 wRC+). Thomas, Ben Oglivie, and Cooper finished first, fourth, and eighth in home runs in the AL. Part-time player Don Money was money. He hit .284/.360/.531, good for a 148 wRC+).

The 1982 Brewers won the AL East by a single game over the Baltimore Orioles, then beat the California Angels in the ALCS, three games to two. They made the World Series for the only time in their history, but lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games.

Number 5

1976 Cincinnati Reds, 120 wRC+

102-60, .630, won the World Series

.280/.357/.424, .357 wOBA—Reds

.255/.320/.361, .314 wOBA—League Average

The 1976 Big Red Machine won more than 100 games for a second straight year and won the World Series for a second straight year with a sweep of the New York Yankees. They make this list by being much better than league average on offense during a low-scoring time in the National League. In a league in which the run-scoring average was 3.98 runs per game, the Reds averaged 5.29 runs per game.

The great Joe Morgan (184 wRC+) was the best hitter on the team and the best player in the league. He won the NL MVP Award for a second straight year. It was also the fifth straight season in which he finished among the top eight in MVP voting. Morgan filled the stat sheet that year, hitting .320/.444/.576, with 113 runs, 27 homers, 111 RBI, and 60 steals. He was Jose Altuve before Jose Altuve existed, both in stature and success at the dish.

Other great hitters on the 1976 Reds included George Foster (150 wRC+), Ken Griffey (144 wRC+), and Pete Rose (144 wRC+). Foster led the team in RBI and Rose led the team in runs scored. Morgan, Rose, and Griffey all had on-base percentages over .400. The Reds had power also. They hit 141 home runs in a league in which the average team hit 92 homers and the St. Louis Cardinals hit just 63.

Number 4

1931 New York Yankees, 124 wRC+

94-59, .614, second in the AL

.297/.383/.467, .387 wOBA—Yankees

.278/.344/.396, .344 wOBA—League Average

The New York Yankees scored 1,000 or more runs in each of the three seasons from 1930 to 1932, with the 1931 team topping out at 1,067. This is still the most runs any team has scored since 1901. Of course, this was a very high-offense era in baseball. The Yankees averaged 6.9 runs per game in a league in which the average team scored 5.1 runs per game. They hit 155 home runs. The other seven teams in the league averaged 60 dingers.

Babe Ruth (206 wRC+) hit .373/.495/.700, with 46 homers and 149 RBI . . . and this was the seventh-best season of his career. Lou Gehrig (184 wRC+) hit .341/.446/.662, with 46 homers and 163 RBI, so the duo combined for 92 home runs, which was more than six entire teams in the AL hit that year. The key members of the rest of the lineup were Ben Chapman (134 wRC+), Earle Combs (126 wRC+), and Bill Dickey (119 wRC+). Chapman was the base-stealer on this squad; he had 61 of them.

As you might expect on a team that scored more than 1,000 runs, there were gaudy totals all around. Six players scored more than 100 runs, with four Yankees finishing in the top five in that category. Four more Yankees eclipsed 100 RBI. Despite this powerhouse offense, these Yankees didn’t win the AL pennant that year. They finished 13.5 games behind the Philadelphia Athletics, who won 107 games.

Number 3

1930 New York Yankees, 124 wRC+

86-68, .558, third in the AL

.309/.384/.488, .388 wOBA—Yankees

.288/.351/.421, .349 wOBA—League Average

Looking at raw OPS, the entire 1930 Yankees team hit about the same as Nelson Cruz is hitting this year. That’s why the numbers need to be adjusted for context. Run scoring in 1930 was much higher than it is in 2017. This Yankees team averaged 6.9 runs per game in a league in which the average was 5.4 runs per game. They were a terrific offense in a high-offense era.

Of course, the top sticks belonged to Babe Ruth (205 wRC+) and Lou Gehrig (198 wRC+). The hit 90 of the team’s 152 home runs (59 percent). Ruth scored 150 runs and drove in 153 runs. Gehrig scored 143 and drove in 174. Those numbers just don’t exist these days. Earle Combs (145 wRC+) was the third-best hitter on this team. He scored 129 runs and led the team in steals. Jimmie Reese (124 wRC+), Bill Dickey (121 wRC+), and Ben Chapman (117 wRC+) all had strong seasons.

Much like the 1931 team, this Yankees squad had a tremendous offense but not enough pitching to win the AL pennant. They outscored the AL pennant winner, the Philadelphia Athletics, by more than 100 runs, but also allowed 146 more runs than the A’s. This left them in third place, which was their worst finish in any year between 1926 and 1939.

Number 2

1927 New York Yankees, 126 wRC+

110-44, .714, won the World Series

.307/.384/.488, .400 wOBA—Yankees

.286/.352/.399, .351 wOBA—League Average

 Here we have the 1927 Yankees, also known as “Murderers’ Row.” This is the gold standard of hard-hitting baseball teams. This was the year Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs and out-homered every other team in the AL. He also had 158 runs scored and 164 RBI, with a .356/.486/.772 batting line. As good as his season was, Lou Gehrig was right there with him: .373/.474/.765, 149 runs, 47 homers, 175 RBI.

The term “Murderers’ Row” was used by a sportswriter in 1918 to describe the Yankees lineup even before Babe Ruth joined the team. Over the years, it has come to stand for the mid-1920s Yankees and, more specifically, to this 1927 team. The first six batters in the lineup make up the core contributors: Earle Combs (141 wRC+), Mark Koenig (83 wRC+), Babe Ruth (212 wRC+), Lou Gehrig (209 wRC+), Bob Meusel (134 wRC+), and Tony Lazzeri (125 wRC+). Koenig was a well below average hitter who still scored 99 runs this season because he hit in front of Ruth, Gehrig, and Meusel. He was the least murderous member of Murderers’ Row, the guy who brought a butter knife to a gunfight.

The 1927 Yankees won 110 games and had a run-differential of 376, still the all-time record. They won the AL pennant by 19 games before sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates in the World Series. When baseball fans talk about the greatest teams of all-time, the 1927 Yankees are always in the conversation and that is due in large part to their big guns on offense.

Number 1

2017 Houston Astros, 130 wRC+ (through Friday, August 4)

70-39, .642, leading AL West by 15 games

.292/.355/.504, .362 wOBA—Astros

.255/.324/.426, .321 wOBA—League Average

I imagine traditional baseball fans will scoff at the idea that the 2017 Houston Astros can compare in any way to the vaunted 1927 Yankees that we’ve heard about for so many years. The Astros don’t have any players close to Babe Ruth or Lou Gehrig, not even the amazing Jose Altuve. What the Astros lack in elite talent (like Ruth or Gehrig), they make up for with depth up and down the lineup. Still, little Jose Altuve is the biggest engine on the Astros hitting machine:

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Jose Altuve (171 wRC+) leads the way with a .365/.425/.575 batting line. He’s joined by George Springer (160 wRC+), Marwin Gonzalez (159 wRC+), and Carlos Correa (158 wRC+) as players having terrific seasons. Yes, Marwin Gonzalez, the same Marwin Gonzalez who came into this season with a career batting line of .257/.298/.389. This year, he’s hitting .311/.388/.578 and has played 10 or more games at five different positions (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF).

The depth continues with Josh Reddick (125 wRC+), Jake Marisnick (124 wRC+), Alex Bregman (121 wRC+), Evan Gattis (118 wRC+), and Yulieski Gurriel (114 wRC+). The Astros have 10 players with 198 or more plate appearances who have been above average on offense. In contrast, the Los Angeles Angels have three.

Not convinced of the Astros’ excellence? Look at the numbers. Set aside your bias in favor of teams from the past. Look at the teams on this list. Do you agree with some or most of the other teams listed? The numbers back up their placement on the list, so why not the Astros?

Next: Yankees desperate for a spark

The Astros are hitting .292 in a league with a .255 batting average. They have a team on-base percentage that is .031 higher than league average and .016 better than the next-best team. They are slugging over .500 as a team. The Indians and Yankees are next, at .441. They have averaged 5.9 runs per game this season in a league with a 4.7 runs per game average. When you factor in the league and ballpark effects, this Houston Astros team tops them all with a 130 wRC+.