Phillies’ Offseason Expectations
If past is prologue, predicting this winter’s acquisitions depends on the balance of 2017’s performances in the eyes of general manager Matt Klentak of the Philadelphia Phillies.
The 2018 Squad:
With your track record, your direction and decision-making are clear indicators of your approach to demands in your immediate future.
To understand the upcoming offseason, you firstly must dispense with your wishful thinking of inking expensive free agents to capture a playoff berth. Translation: Rebuilding continues. But Klentak’s patterns during the last two winters offer an insight into his plans for November and December.
Restructuring is not an instant turnaround helped by picking up one big bat or arm via a signing or a trade. For instance, what would happen if the star added is a catcher or an outfielder? Well, Klentak would have the so-called good problem he has at first base, second base and shortstop. In other words, the free agent would block young receivers and outfielders; however, the only exception currently would be at the hot corner.
During the final two months, Klentak will monitor players who could be on the Opening Day roster. He will decide on some in August and others in September. But, presently, management is evaluating Nick Williams and Hyun Soo Kim for a corner outfield spot.
Regarding the starting staff, Nick Pivetta and a handful of other young hurlers will be auditioning until campaign’s end for two spots due to Jeremy Hellickson‘s departure. But the relief corps is another matter because no one has a set role for ’18.
Barring an injury, a swap, a monumental slump or any other unforeseen event, Rhys Hoskins and J.P. Crawford will be must-see call-ups. But Hoskins and Cozens could receive promotions before September if they are producing with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. However, both have struggled recently – Cozens in particular. On the other hand, Crawford could see more time if Galvis occasionally slides over to the hot corner.
ONLY YOU: “I would think I drive most hitting coaches crazy. During one single at-bat I used six different stances on six pitches. Oh yeah, I also struck out. So what do I know?” – John “Krukkie” Kruk
In Klentak’s own words, his expectation for offseason pickups is 50 percent. But keep in mind, he is considering production, good health and a return at the July 31 deadline.
For his first winter, Klentak achieved his 50 percent goal. Hellickson went 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA for his best 162 since 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays. On the other hand, Morton had a good start before a season-ending injury in late April.
Adding Kim – Klentak pointed out – gives the team a left-handed bat with plate discipline. And while assistant general manager Scott Proefrock listened, the GM stated the need for another experienced outfielder if he can move Nava. Hey, Kim averaged .305 last summer and he might be worth re-signing. On the other hand, Hellickson went 6-5 with a 4.73 ERA: a draw without getting Kim. And Buchholz – the exec continued – had two poor outings and could finish the season on the disabled list. So, 50 percent.
WORDS OF WISDOM: “I won’t quit on a player who doesn’t quit on himself.” – “Uncle Charlie” Manuel
In the bullpen, Klentak had one hit out of two. Pat Neshek had an All-Star first half for the Philadelphia Phillies, and they acquired three solid Single-A pieces for him with only one requiring a 40-man spot. Unfortunately, Joaquin Benoit was on the other side of the ledger.
Due to a miss with right fielder Michael Saunders, Aaron Altherr claimed a regular role and will continue after a brief DL stint. On the other hand, Howie Kendrick had an excellent first half because he’s playing for a three-year contract: final guaranteed dollars. And Williams, his replacement, is showing all the signs of a man who does not want to return to Lehigh Valley.
Among potential starters – Klentak stated to Proefrock – Hoskins will need more than 10 solid games for an advancement. And Joseph is not blocking but outhitting Hoskins. In the outfield, however, Cozens has an opening like Williams to capitalize on, but he’s in a horrible slump. Yeah, September.
Hitting from July 1 through August 6:
- Joseph: 31 Gms., 117 AB, 30 H, .256, 3 HR and 16 RBI.
- Hoskins: 32 Gms., 119 AB, 24 H, .207, 8 HR and 21 RBI.
- Cozens: 31 Gms., 109 AB, 19 H, .174, 5 HR and 12 RBI.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “All the managers, pitching coaches (are) very sensitive. Look, you can always pick at something, but there’s a broader picture, a grander picture.” – Bud Selig
While the red pinstripes don’t have an everyday star, they do have regulars they can count on at first base, second base, shortstop and three outfield positions if Williams is reasonably productive for the campaign’s balance. So, the only places to add a veteran this offseason could be at the hot corner or behind the plate if everyone else remains dependable. Meanwhile, the healing time for Andrew Knapp might provide a limited opportunity for Jorge Alfaro to shine before the final month. On the other hand, the third sacker might continue there next April and May until a position change involving Galvis or Kingery.
IN MEMORY OF A LEADER: “Jim Fregosi will be deeply missed in the baseball world. Joni and the rest of the family are in our prayers. Fregos was the best manager I’ve ever played for. Our relationship was so special, and he was the one that taught me how to be a leader. Fregos and I could relate to each other whether we were in the clubhouse or on the field. In 1993, The City of Brotherly Love changed the world. Fregos was the driving force!” – Dutch Daulton
Because the relief corps is without Neshek and Benoit, it is audition time for three flamethrowers vying for the closer’s job. Meanwhile, the southpaws and rookies promoted from the IronPigs have their chance now to earn a bullpen seat for ’18. But keep in mind, Klentak will pick up one or two experienced relievers to go with the best five in the pen. Probably, two.
Concerning the rotation after the front three, management has Pivetta and a handful of arms in the hunt for the bottom rung of the five-man staff. But if only those three lock down a slot, Klentak could add a vet with Pivetta in the fifth spot. However, Aaron Nola‘s performances for the rest of 2017 are an important part of the decision-making process. If he excels and a fourth hurler proves he belongs, the GM might not add another starter.
Even though the temptation for the front office will be to acquire a proven commodity they can flip, it could be time for the young starters to stand on their own. But what is the key to the Phillies’ rotation for next summer? Nola!
Here is the link to “Phillies’ Lineup Changes Ahead” from August 10, which is the latest article.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats are through August 6:
- Joseph: K% of 23.1 percent and a BB% of 7.3 percent.
- Hoskins: K% of 15.8 percent and a BB% of 13.6 percent.
- Cozens: K% of 34.4 percent and a BB% of 10.2 percent.
- Kim: K% of 19.0 percent and a BB% of 10.4 percent.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Stats are through August 6:
Pitching as Phillies:
- Hellickson, 30: 20 Gms., 112 1/3 Inn., 6-5, a 4.73 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 0.5 WARP and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Buchholz, 32.5: 2 Gms., 7 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 12.27 ERA, a 4.65 FIP, a 6.38 xFIP, a 5.58 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 2.59 WHIP.
- Neshek, almost 37: 43 Gms., 40 1/3 Inn., a 1.12 ERA, 1 Save, 28 Holds, a 1.93 FIP, a 0.7 WARP and a 0.82 WHIP.
- Benoit, 40: 44 Gms., 42 Inn., a 4.07 ERA, 2 Saves, 32 Holds, a 3.78 FIP, a 0.7 WARP and a 1.14 WHIP.
Hitting as Phillies:
- Kendrick, 34: 39 Gms., 156 PA, a .340 Avg., a .397 OBP, a .454 SLG, 2 HR, 16 RBI and a 1.1 WARP.
- Saunders, 30.5: 61 Gms., 214 PA, a .205 Avg., a .257 OBP, a .360 SLG, a .155 ISO, a .245 BABIP, 6 HR, 20 RBI, a .617 OPS and a -0.7 fWAR.
- Nava, 34.5: 69 Gms., 193 PA, a .311 Avg., a .404 OBP, a .445 SLG, a .134 ISO, a .364 BABIP, 4 HR, 20 RBI, an .849 OPS and a 1.1 fWAR.
- Joseph, 26: 104 Gms., 411 PA, a .249 Avg., a .307 OBP, a .440 SLG, a .191 ISO, a .291 BABIP, 16 HR, 54 RBI, a .747 OPS and a -0.4 fWAR.
Next: The Phillies After July's Trades
Triple-A Hitting:
- Hoskins, 24.5: 111 Gms., 455 PA, a .282 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .574 SLG, a .292 ISO, a .280 BABIP, 27 HR, 84 RBI, a .959 OPS and a 2.4 WARP.
- Cozens, 23: 108 Gms., 442 PA, a .220 Avg., a .305 OBP, a .437 SLG, a .217 ISO, a .289 BABIP, 23 HR, 63 RBI, a .743 OPS and a 1.6 WARP.