As MLB farm system ranks come out, they are showing a clear division.
In December, Call to the Pen contributor Benjamin Chase looked at the farm systems in MLB and ranked them from 1-30. He also noted something very distinct – that there were seven elite systems, seven notably rough systems, and 16 teams that were fairly fluid in the middle.
Those rankings were such: 1. Philadelphia Phillies 2. Atlanta Braves 3. New York Yankees 4. Milwaukee Brewers 5. San Diego Padres 6. Chicago White Sox 7. Los Angeles Dodgers 8. Houston Astros 9. Toronto Blue Jays 10. St. Louis Cardinals 11. Pittsburgh Pirates 12. Texas Rangers 13. Colorado Rockies 14. Tampa Bay Rays 15. Chicago Cubs 16. Cleveland Indians 17. Minnesota Twins 18. Cincinnati Reds 19. Seattle Mariners 20. Boston Red Sox 21. New York Mets 22. Washington Nationals 23. Oakland Athletics 24. Detroit Tigers 25. Kansas City Royals 26. San Francisco Giants 27. Miami Marlins 28. Baltimore Orioles 29. Arizona Diamondbacks 30. Los Angeles Angels
With the draft, graduations of top prospects and trades, those rankings have changed, but what hasn’t changed is that there is still a distinct separation with the top group of teams, the bottom group of teams and then a very muddled group in the middle.
This seeming “haves” and “have-nots” aspect of the minor leagues currently has really defined the focus of many teams. Some really have put their chips all on the table for the “now” because their farm system will not allow for a replenishment of the team in the near future. Other teams have been less willing to make a “big move” to help their MLB team win because they know they have such depth and talent in the minor leagues that they do not want to simply be taken advantage of due to their depth.
While this list won’t have a complete re-ranking of the entire 30 (that will come this offseason!), we will explore the elite teams, the middle group and the bottom bunch. We’ll start with the elite group.
The elite farm systems
In my eyes, only one team has really changed from that preseason list. The Milwaukee Brewers have graduated a large number of their top prospects and seen those still on the farm have significant struggles and even step-back seasons, so they’ve moved from the elite group at this point to the middle.
In their place, the Houston Astros, a team that was right on the edge in spring, have seen the development of two top 50 prospects, Franklin Perez and Forrest Whitley, and one top 100 prospect, Yordan Alvarez, and have significantly added to the elite prospects in the system.
However, the class of this group is definitely the teams that are the easy top two in MLB right now – the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago White Sox. The Braves have seen their prospect depth not only show itself well, but a number of their best prospects have taken significant steps forward, including Ronald Acuna, who has a legit argument among the top five prospects in the entire game at this point.
The Chicago White Sox system has been pushed up by big trades in the last year, but they’ve also seen a focus change in their drafting that has really brought in much better results from their 2016 and 2017 draft classes. A guy like Alec Hansen could become a top 50 prospect by the end of the season, and he was a guy the White Sox took a chance on in the 2016 draft, not someone that they acquired in their myriad of deals.
The Phillies, Yankees, Padres and Dodgers all remain among the elite groups, in spite of some trading-away of depth by both the Yankees and Dodgers.
Let’s take a look at the middle teams.
The middle
I can see an argument for the ordering of the middle 15 teams in about 100 different ways. There are a few teams that are near the top of the middle bunch and a few that are near the bottom of the bunch, but outside of that, it’s a mix of teams that could be arranged in any way without really a major argument to be had.
The few teams near the top would certainly include Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. The improvements in high-ceiling prospects in both systems is a huge reason for both. Certainly production from top prospects like Brent Honeywell and Nick Senzel helps, but guys like Taylor Trammell and Lucius Fox have been examples in both systems of high-ceiling guys who are playing well and showing that the high-ceiling approach in each organization will have some productive results.
Toward the bottom are two teams that were there before the season as well in Oakland and Washington. The Athletics have seen a number of their top prospects take a step back, though A.J. Puk‘s performance this year has certainly been a bright spot, and the depth in the system is impressive. The Nationals have made acquisitions this season without giving up their top three “stud” prospects in Victor Robles, Juan Soto and Carter Kieboom, but the depth of the system has again been stripped underneath those guys after trading away top guys in the offseason.
In the middle, there are some systems that are certainly on the way up, like Minnesota and Colorado, and other systems that are headed toward that bottom group, especially as upcoming graduations come to their systems, in Boston and the New York Mets.
This winter will be a tough assignment to truly put those teams into an order that makes sense in the middle group!
The “ugly” farm systems
Coming into the season, I had seven teams that were clear bottom teams. While some of the teams in this group have seen some progress in their systems overall, there have been two teams that really drained their farm systems this year and had graduations on top of that in order to expand this group to seven.
The team that moved out of this group and into the middle tier is the Baltimore Orioles. The outstanding development of Ryan Mountcastle and the surprising first season of Austin Hays has really put some impressive players at the top of the Orioles system, which was the big thing they were missing. There is still a lack of depth in the system, but the 2017 draft was very solid and the 2016 draft showed to be a quality one as well.
The two teams that I bumped down into this area are two clubs definitely competing this year, but both have seen some graduations this season and some trades that have left their systems extremely bare – the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners have been a team that has traded plenty with Jerry Dipoto in the GM chair, but they’ve also seen injuries to Kyle Lewis persist, steps back among other top prospects, and multiple pitching prospects lose their “prospect” status as they’ve moved up to the big league club in a musical chairs of pitchers in the final 2-3 spots of the roster this season.
The Cubs are obviously competing for a repeat of last year’s dramatic World Series title. They’re in a battle in the NL Central that has a four-team race currently, and picking up a pitcher like Jose Quintana certainly made sense, but losing really their last few legit nationally-considered prospects in the Quintana and Justin Wilson deals has emptied this system of legit top-end guys beyond their 2017 draft picks, who are just getting their feet wet as professionals.
Teams like Arizona and Kansas City are competing heavily, and being where they are in this list is not the worst thing for them as they are in a competitive cycle, though the Royals’ window will slam shut quickly this winter, but they used their system for what it was intended for.
A team like the Angels that is seemingly in the middle has seen huge growth this year with the players in the system, and they’ve had two very solid drafts (though I’m still not a fan of 2016’s first selection Matt Thaiss).
However, teams like the San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers are in positions as organizations where they are seeing their competitive cycles end through aging of some players and in tragic circumstances. These teams have systems that are in trouble, though the Tigers have seen some significant improvement in their pitching development this season. All are struggling at the big league level without significant help coming from their own farm systems. That’s a scary spot to be as an organization, and that’s when you end up with major divides in the sport for multiple years.
