NL MVP race has several contenders, but one stands above the rest
By Kyle Cardoza
The National League may not have as many teams competing for a playoff spot as the American League, but it has plenty more players contending for the MVP this year. Several guys are worthy of the honor, but there is one who is ahead of the rest this far into the season.
Unlike the American League MVP race, which is essentially down to three players, the National League has more than a handful of contenders. With nearly two months left in the season, there are arguably seven or eight guys that could take home the hardware.
Competitors have struck monstrous home runs, demonstrated their defensive prowess and delivered clutch performances. But only one can prevail, even if multiple players deserve the honors.
This season is unlike any other.
It is rare to see an NL MVP race where one player completely dominates the league to which no one can compare, which is why 2015 was such an outlier. Bryce Harper notched a historic season that year, even though his team failed to make the postseason.
In other seasons, races were much closer. Clayton Kershaw beat out a group of sluggers in 2014, while Andrew McCutchen edged Paul Goldschmidt in 2013.
But in those years, it was typically a two-horse race. That’s why this season is more fun to analyze, and surely heated debates will break out in the coming weeks.
After breaking down how each player won the honors in their respective years, it seems that one statistic overshadows the rest of them: wins above replacement. Ultimately, most categories contribute to a player’s overall WAR, hence why it makes sense to base the voting process on that statistic.
Just look at the winners of the award since 2012 and how they fared against the second-place vote-getter in some categories. (These are all NL statistics.)
(WAR = wins above replacement, OPS = on-base percentage + slugging percentage, RC = runs created)
2016: Kris Bryant (1st WAR, 4th OPS, 3rd RC), Daniel Murphy (13th WAR, 1st OPS, 7th RC)
2015: Bryce Harper (1st WAR, 1st OPS, 1st RC), Paul Goldschmidt (2nd WAR, 2nd OPS, 3rd RC)
2014: Clayton Kershaw (1st WAR, 1st ERA), Giancarlo Stanton (3rd WAR, 2nd OPS, 2nd RC)
2013: Andrew McCutchen (2nd WAR, 6th OPS, 5th RC), Goldschmidt (3rd WAR, 1st OPS, 2nd RC)
2012: Buster Posey (1st WAR, 2nd OPS, 4th RC), Ryan Braun (3rd WAR, 1st OPS, 1st RC)
Of course, there are several other categories that are also used to determine the winner. This just shows how anyone who leads the league in WAR has a higher chance of being deemed the victor.
It makes sense to give the MVP to a member of a winning team. Last year, Kris Bryant just happened to be the best player for the World Series champions.
Voters rarely give the award to players on teams that failed to make the postseason, although they have realized one man can’t make a team. Since 2000, just three MVP winners played for teams that didn’t qualify for a playoff berth.
2015: Bryce Harper
2008: Albert Pujols
2004: Barry Bonds
2001: Barry Bonds
All of this year’s contenders come from winning teams, except one. Nonetheless, all of the players can make a valid argument for why they deserve to claim this prestigious award.
(Note: All statistics used are prior to Aug. 13.)