Where have all the stolen bases gone in MLB?!
MLB players are stealing bases at a particularly low rate this season. How does this rate historically?
With things like Statcast able to measure and recognize speed, one would think MLB teams would understand how to best utilize their fast players, but thus far it seems that teams are going away from the stolen base more than increasing their stolen bases. Is this a historically low stolen base rate?
2017 stolen base rates
To this point, major league teams have stolen 1,850 bases on 2,537 attempts (a 72.9 percent success rate). Two teams (the Angels and Brewers) have stolen 100 bases, with two more (the Rangers and Reds) at 90 and 89, respectively. They’re likely to eclipse 100 with roughly 45 games left in the season for each team, meaning they have played roughly 75 percent of their season. Four more teams (Diamondbacks, Nationals, Red Sox and Mariners) would all have reasonable shots at getting to 100+, with two (Astros and Royals) having a more distant shot. The league average is currently 62 stolen bases.
At an individual player level, only two players have eclipsed 40 stolen bases and none have passed 50. Based on the current totals, only one player really has a shot to reach 40 with roughly 25 percent of the season left, and that is Trea Turner, who likely won’t return for a few more weeks from the disabled list.
How does this rate historically?
While no one is expecting a return to the rates of the 1980s, this has the feel of a trend away from stolen bases. Let’s look at these stats over the last five seasons:
2016: 2,537 total steals (71.7 percent), 9 teams with 100+ (leader 181), team average 85, 2 50+ players (leader 62)
2015: 2,505 total steals (70.2 percent), 6 teams with 100+ (leader 134), team average 84, 2 50+ players (leader 58)
2014: 2,764 total steals (72.8 percent), 13 teams with 100+ (leader 153), team average 92, 3 50+ (leader 64)
2013: 2,693 total steals (72.8 percent), 12 teams with 100+ (leader 153), team average 90, 1 50+ (leader 42)
2012: 3,229 total steals (74 percent), 19 teams with 100+ (leader 158), team average 108, 0 50+ (leader 49)
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On an individual level, there are going to be players reaching 50, and as seen in 2012, and there have been seasons without individuals reaching 50. However, at a team level, there is a notable trend. Even in 2012, when the major league individual stolen base leader had only 49, each team averaged 108 as a team, so teams were stealing bases at an average level that is likely to be roughly 30 more bases per team than the average team will achieve in 2017.
On a team level, this is historically low. It would require an uptick in stolen bases across the league to reach 2,500 steals as a league. Since the league expanded to 30 teams in 1998, the league has stolen at least 2,500 bases every season.
The average of 84 stolen bases per team in 2015 is the lowest since the early 1970s, when the league returned to stealing bases.
One thing to note is that starting with the “Murderer’s Row” lineup in New York in the late 1920s, baseball went through a dearth of stolen bases that did last until the 1970s, when the steal came back into the game strong.