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A Wild Card for 2018’s Phillies Rotation

By Tal Venada |
SEATTLE, WA - JUNE 27: Catcher Cameron Rupp
SEATTLE, WA - JUNE 27: Catcher Cameron Rupp
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Is Nola Ready To Be an Ace? Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images.
Is Nola Ready To Be an Ace? Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images. /

If you project the starting staff you have seen so far, legitimate concerns are everywhere after the first two hurlers, and general manager Matt Klentak of the Philadelphia Phillies has probably already begun the search to acquire a stabilizing influence for his young charges.

The Other Option:

During the course of a lifetime, many people have a handful of choices regarding their future, and sometimes one selection is intriguing due to its uniqueness.

To narrow the possibilities, this article begins with the longest shot first; however, the unusual candidate is not currently the favorite.

When Klentak figures out his five-man staff for next summer, he will take into account if he has five hurlers he can count on. He will look for consistency: Four quality outings out of five is management’s expectation according to Mackanin. And if the GM isn’t comfortable with two rotation slots, he will scour 29 other rosters for a veteran arm he can flip to fit between or behind Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff in April. Ergo, a one-season deal.

While Nola has a 10-game streak of dominant pitching, he is establishing himself as an ace and not just in Philadelphia. His run began on June 22. On the other hand, Eickhoff is showing the potential to be a number-two since June 16, but a disabled list stint slightly affected bis progress.

Stats for their most recent performances:

  • Nola, 24: 10 Gms., 68 1/3 Inn., 13 ER and 6-2 with a 1.71 ERA.
  • Eickhoff, 27: 8 Gms., 45 2/3 Inn., 15 ER and 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA.
  • Velasquez, 25: 4 Gms., 21 Inn., 7 ER and 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA excluding his injury-related game.

During a nice evening at the Bank, Nola and Eickhoff, aka Eick, enjoyed the contest from the dugout railing, while they watched Mark Leiter working in long relief. What would you throw that slugger in this 1-2 count, Eick? An up-and-in heater before a low-and-away slider. Another punch out for Leiter!

How many pitches does Leiter have? He has six, Eick, and his out pitch is his splitter. Yeah, and his dad has coached him forever.

As the conversation continued, Nola told his teammate about facing this guy yesterday. Popped him up! Tommy Joseph is running straight for the hurlers; they back away from the railing. Bang! Whoa, it went right off the roof near the Phanatic.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT:   “I get tired of hearing my ballplayers bellyache all the time. They should sit in the press box sometime and watch themselves play.” – Buzzie Bavasi
Don’t Expect Velasquez To Be the Closer Next Year. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images.
Don’t Expect Velasquez To Be the Closer Next Year. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. /

With only two starters penciled in for ’18, the front office switching Vince Velasquez to the bullpen is not feasible. He’s a moundsman with mid-90s smoke, which is now the key for GMs and managers to warrant a long look every fifth day. Currently, his numbers after coming off the DL are the third best on the five-man staff. In other words, he’ll probably have the next 162 to improve, even though the relief corps has three setup men: Hector Neris, Luis Garcia and Edubray Ramos.

Stats for his most recent performances, excluding his injury-related game:

  • Velasquez, 25: 4 Gms., 21 Inn., 7 ER and 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA.

Until he proves he’s healthy next summer, right-hander Mark Appel has virtually no shot to be a Phillie on Opening Day, and no one is counting on him either. This June, another shoulder strain kiboshed him. Additionally, although he was on a good run, he either lands on the disabled list or the success is temporary. Before finishing on the DL, however, he was in seven contests for 41 innings and went 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA.

Stats for their most recent performances excluding Appel’s injury-related game:

  • Appel, 26: 7 Gms., 41 Inn., 10 ER and 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA.
  • Eshelman, 23: 4 Gms., 23 Inn., 12 ER and 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA for July and August.

Regarding the Rule 5 draft, righty Thomas Eshelman won’t require protection until after 2018. So, he’ll return to Triple-A in April for at least two months before a possible call-up. But last month, he was on the disabled list with a strained right hip flexor and had a disastrous return before throwing six frames of one-run ball on August 9.

Will Eickhoff Have a Strong Finish? Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images.
Will Eickhoff Have a Strong Finish? Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images. /

Concerning righty Jake Thompson, he was 2-4 with a 3.28 ERA in July and August for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. In between, though, he had two appearances with the Phils: 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and seven strikeouts for 10 frames. But keep in mind, he allowed three homers, 11 other hits, three walks and an HBP in those opportunities. Ergo, no third start.

Stats for their most recent performances:

  • Thompson, 23.5: 6 Triple-A Gms., 35 2/3 Inn., 13 ER and 2-4 with a 3.28 ERA.
  • Thompson: 2 MLB Gms., 10 Inn., 2 ER and 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA.
  • Lively, 25: 4 MLB Gms., 21 2/3 Inn., 11 ER and 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA.

Waiting at Lehigh Valley is right-hander Ben Lively, who had three straight seven-inning performances and a 3.00 ERA for the red pinstripes. Unfortunately, his last four appearances increased his ERA to 3.80. But he is also having a solid year with the IronPigs: 7-5 with a 3.15 ERA for 15 starts. And while Thompson may not be back this summer, Lively probably will.

WORDS OF WISDOM: “Things happen along the way in our path. Instead of looking at it as a wall that’s being put up in front of us, look at it as as opportunity to scale new heights and to climb that wall – to see and do things you didn’t think you were capable of.” – Robin Roberts
Will Eflin Take Advantage of His Opportunity? Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images.
Will Eflin Take Advantage of His Opportunity? Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Even though Nick Pivetta has the stuff, his excellent performances are less frequent. In fact, he’s had one good outing out of his last six. He is 2-3 with a 8.80 ERA for those appearances: He’s here because he’s a flamethrower. How many starts does he have left with September call-ups around the corner?

Stats for their most recent performances:

  • Pivetta, 24: 6 Gms., 29 2/3 Inn., 29 ER and 2-3 with a 8.80 ERA.
  • Eflin, 23: 2 Gms.,12 1/3 Inn., 6 ER and 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA.

After watching Zach Eflin‘s loss to the New York Mets, many fans don’t realize he’s currently the top candidate for the slot behind Nola, Eickhoff and Velasquez. Recently, he is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA and will be here to season’s end. So, if he’s healthy and wants a rotation spot, he will need decent results in six out of nine potential opportunities.

If you’re not feeling overly optimistic with Eflin, Piveta and Lively, you might have to be creative if you’re an exec with the Philadelphia Phillies. In other words, one pitcher has six extended outings for 30 2/3 innings and allowed 11 earned runs for a 3.23 ERA since June 23. And who gave up six free passes, hit four batters, and recorded 33 punch outs during those games? Leiter.

Despite a Rough Outing, Leiter Could Surprise Everybody Before Season’s End. Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images.
Despite a Rough Outing, Leiter Could Surprise Everybody Before Season’s End. Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Statistics are through August 15.

Pitching:

  • Nola, 24: 19 Gms., 119 1/3 Inn., 9-7, a 3.02 ERA, a 3.14 FIP, a 3.51 xFIP, a 3.68 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
  • Eickhoff, 27: 21 Gms., 116 1/3 Inn., 3-7, a 4.33 ERA, a 4.08 FIP, a 4.73 xFIP, a 4.66 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.46 WHIP.
  • Velasquez, 25: 15 Gms., 72 Inn., 2-7, a 5.13 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.56 xFIP, a 4.70 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.50 WHIP.
  • Pivetta, 24.5 : 17 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., 4-7, a 6.09 ERA, a 5.29 FIP, a 4.63 xFIP, a 4.45 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.45 WHIP.

Eflin, 23:

  • MLB: 10 Gms., 59 1/3 Inn. 1-4, a 5.76 ERA, a 5.85 FIP, a 5.18 xFIP, a 5.00 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
  • Triple-A: 8 Gms., 7 Starts, 43 1/3 Inn., 1-4, a 4.57 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.43 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP.

Leiter, 26.5:

  • MLB: 20 Gms., 4 Starts, 51 1/3 Inn. 1-3, a 4.38 ERA, a 5.45 FIP, a 4.58 xFIP, a 4.07 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.
  • Triple-A: 7 Gms., 5 Starts, 30 Inn., 2-1, a 4.20 ERA, a 3.67 FIP, a 2.49 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.

Lively, 25.5:

  • MLB: 7 Gms., 52 2/3 Inn. 1-4, a 3.80 ERA, a 4.61 FIP, a 5.97 xFIP, a 5.90 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
  • Triple-A: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 7-5, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP.

Thompson, 23.5:

  • MLB: 5 Gms., 2 Starts, 15 Inn. 1-1, a 4.20 ERA, a 6.87 FIP, a 6.01 xFIP, a 5.43 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.80 WHIP.
  • Triple-A: 20 Gms., 105 1/3 Inn., 5-12, a 5.13 ERA, a 4.27 FIP, a 4.68 xFIP and a 1.55 WHIP.

Next: Phillies' Lineup Changes Ahead

Triple-A Pitching:

  • Eshelman, 23: 14 Gms., 94 Inn., 8-3, a 2.78 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.71 xFIP and a 1.03 WHIP.
  • Appel, 26: 17 Gms., 82 Inn., 5-4, a 5.27 ERA, a 5.42 FIP, a 5.24 xFIP and a 1.76 WHIP.
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