With an August trade looking increasingly unlikely, the Cincinnati Reds and shortstop Zack Cozart will need to answer some questions in the offseason.
As the non-waiver trade deadline neared, Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart seemed as viable a trade candidate as any. The seven-year veteran is a free agent at season’s end and enjoying a career year at the plate. Cozart was involved in trade rumors last summer as well, but the Reds suddenly had the opportunity to sell high and likely net a greater return.
However, July 31 passed with Cozart still on the Reds. A trip to the disabled list right before the deadline due to a quad injury may have had something to do with that. However, August is almost over and Cozart doesn’t seem any closer to leaving Cincinnati via a waiver trade. According to Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, a market simply hasn’t materialized for the 32-year-old shortstop.
Cozart’s breakout campaign has been a noteworthy story this season, one that perhaps hasn’t received the attention it deserves since the Reds are once again at the bottom of the standings. Over his first six seasons, Cozart slashed .246/.289/.385 while averaging 10 home runs and 36 RBI per year. In 2017, he’s batting a robust .313/.404/.578 with 17 homers and 48 RBI in 88 games. Unsurprisingly, Cozart earned his first ever trip to the All-Star Game (oh yeah, and a donkey) for his impressive performance.
Cozart’s 151 wRC+ ranks second among all major league shortstops, trailing only Carlos Correa‘s 157. He also remains a plus defender, with three defensive runs saved (DRS) and an 8.3 UZR/150. Overall, Cozart boasts a 4.1 fWAR, which places him third among shortstops after Corey Seager (4.9) and Andrelton Simmons (4.8).
The appeal and interest should be there, but other clubs might be asking the same question some fans are: Given Cozart’s age, is he a genuine late bloomer or a random flash in the pan?
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Cozart has benefited from a .333 BABIP, which is significantly higher than what he’s experienced in the past (career average .281) but not terribly outlandish. He has shown few signs of losing steam, as he’s slashing .286/.412/.643 with five home runs and nine RBI in 12 games since coming off the DL on August 6.
As Buchanan notes, if the Reds don’t end up moving Cozart, they’ll have a decision to make in the offseason. Do they try to work out an extension? Both sides have expressed a willingness before, but it doesn’t really make sense for a rebuilding club to hand out a multi-year deal to a player on the wrong side of 30, regardless of the season he just had. Although Joey Votto is still putting up MVP-type numbers, he has the team more than covered in the “expensive veteran” department.
Cincinnati could also give Cozart a qualifying offer, which Buchanan points out should be over $18 million for next season. If the free agent market is as cool toward the shortstop as the trade market has reportedly been, he very well could take the deal. It would at least give the Reds the chance to keep Cozart around for another year to see if this level of production continues.
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However, with that kind of salary, Cozart would be much harder to trade if the Reds wanted to shop him again at next year’s deadline. It might make the most sense for the team to explore a two- or three-year contract for less annual money with Cozart during the offseason. Such an agreement wouldn’t be entirely damning if he regresses and shouldn’t be impossible to move in a trade either.
Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.