Albert Pujols is on track to have fifth-worst 100 RBI season ever
Only four players in history have knocked in 100 RBI in a season while being worth less than -1.0 WAR; Albert Pujols could become the fifth.
Albert Pujols recently hit his 610th career home run, which makes him the MLB leader in home runs by a foreign-born player. He passed Sammy Sosa and is now eighth on the all-time home run list, with Jim Thome just two long balls away. It’s a tremendous achievement and those 600-plus home runs will look very nice next to 3,000 hits on Pujols’ career resume. He’s likely to get hit number 3,000 sometime next season. He also has a chance to knock in his 2,000th run next season.
Despite the impressive career milestone Pujols just achieved with that historic home run, and the milestones still ahead, he’s having the worst season of his career by far. In his prime, Pujols was a consistent 8 WAR player (FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement). As he’s aged into his late 30s, he’s gone from an above-average player to league average to below average and, finally, to below replacement-level this season. And yet, he’s on pace to knock in more than 100 runs this year.
Through the Angels’ first 127 games, Pujols has 79 RBI. If he continues at this rate, he’ll finish with right around 100 RBI. This matches up well with the FanGraphs Depth Chart projection of 22 more RBI, which would also peg him to finish with 101 RBI for the season.
In the history of MLB, only four players have had 100 or more RBI and finished with a lower WAR than Pujols is projected to have this year. With his combination of poor hitting, mediocre base running, and no value on defense, Pujols is projected to finish the year with -1.2 WAR. Only one position player has a lower WAR than Pujols this year (Carlos Gonzalez).
The biggest problem is the bat. Pujols has a career .387 on-base percentage and .564 slugging percentage. This year, he has a .276 OBP and .382 SLG. His 74 wRC+ places him well below the average hitter (100 is league average). In that metric, he ranks 140th out of 153 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, right between lightweights Yolmer Sanchez and Jose Reyes.
Should Pujols get 100 RBI this year, he’ll join the following players with 100 RBI in a season and a WAR below -1.0.
1993 Ruben Sierra, Oakland Athletics (101 RBI, .233/.288/.390, -2.6 WAR)
Coming off back-to-back All-Star years, Ruben Sierra had a brutal 1993 season with the A’s. He didn’t hit much at all, with a 79 wRC+ (21 percent below league average). He was also the worst outfielder in baseball, according to Total Zone.
Despite his impotent bat, he had most of his plate appearances out of the third spot in the lineup. He was able to drive in 101 runs because he had Rickey Henderson and his .471 OBP hitting in the leadoff spot for 83 games and Brent Gates (.387 OBP) in the second slot for 70 games. Sierra took advantage of the base runners by hitting .243/.338/.462 with runners in scoring position. Without runners in scoring position, he hit .218/.255/.343.
1999 Dante Bichette, Colorado Rockies (133 RBI, .298/.354/.541, -2.1 WAR)
To understand how a hitter can hit .298/.354/.541 and drive in 133 runs and still finish two wins worse than replacement-level, you have to remember what Coors Field was like in 1999. For starters, the 1999 season was one of the highest-scoring seasons ever. Teams averaged more than five runs per game. Also, the park factor for Coors Field was 122. Dante Bichette’s home park gave him a big advantage in compiling good numbers. After adjustments for league and ballpark are factored in, Bichette was a league average hitter.
His defense is another story. He had one of the worst fielding seasons of all-time. He played mostly in left field, where he made 13 errors and had a .952 fielding percentage. By Total Zone, Bichette had -34 runs saved. The chart for Total Zone considers -15 to be “awful” and Bichette was more than twice as bad as “awful.” You can come up with your own word for whatever is twice as bad as awful. The favorable hitting environment and brutal defense helped Bichette have the second-worst 100 RBI season of all-time.
1990 Joe Carter, San Diego Padres (115 RBI, .232/.290/.391, -2.0 WAR)
Joe Carter isn’t at the top of this list, but he’s a frequent flier on the 100-RBI but still below-average list. He had three seasons with 100 or more RBI that were below replacement-level and three more that were league average or worse.
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In 1990, he drove in 115 runs despite a .232 batting average and a .391 slugging percentage. He split most of his time between the fourth and fifth spots in the batting order and most often batted with Bip Roberts, Roberto Alomar and Tony Gwynn getting on base in front of him. He was also much better with runners in scoring position, hitting .268/.364/.432. In other situations, he hit .212/.247/.343.
Carter was a below average hitter (80 wRC+), but the bigger issue was his defense. The Padres started the 30-year-old outfielder in center field in 106 games and he turned in the worst defensive performance of his career. He also played left field and first base. By Total Zone, he was the second-worst fielder in baseball among those who qualified for the batting title, only topping Atlanta Braves third baseman Jim Presley, who made 25 errors in 133 games.
1997 Joe Carter, Toronto Blue Jays (102 RBI, .234/.284/.399, -1.4 WAR)
Carter’s second-worst 100-RBI season came in 1997 with the Blue Jays. He had a similar overall triple-slash line as his 1990 season, but the level of offense was higher so his 72 wRC+ was even worse than the 80 he put up in 1990. He also elevated his game with runners in scoring position, hitting .263/.338/.468. Once again, defense was a problem. Carter was 37 years old and started 42 games at first base, 41 games in left field and 10 games in right field. When he wasn’t in the field, he was a DH.
Next: Pujols becomes foreign-born HR king
As bad as Pujols has been on offense this season, he has been able to hit better with runners in scoring position, with a .269/.329/.485 batting line. That hasn’t made up for how bad he’s been as a hitter overall or his lack of defensive or base running value. Pujols is a great guy who in his prime was one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball over the last 50 years, but that time is long gone.