The remaining schedule for each AL Wild Card hopeful will play a big role in determining who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t.
The MLB season is just past the three-quarters point and there are still nine American League teams within five games of the two wild card spots. It’s even tighter at the top. The Yankees have a 3.5-game lead over the Twins for the first wild card spot, but it’s a dogfight for the second spot, as five teams are within a game of each other.
With such a tight race, there are many things that could happen to alter the final outcome. Key players could get hurt, like Miguel Sano of the Twins right now, and teams can get on a good run to push ahead of the pack. The Texas Rangers, for example, have won seven of their last 10 games, including their last two games against another wild card hopeful, the Los Angeles Angels.
This is how the race shapes up, with win-loss records, where they are in the wild race and run differential for each team (run differential is an important marker of how good a team is).
68-58 New York Yankees (1st wild card, +124 run differential)
65-62 Minnesota Twins (2nd wild card, -37 run differential)
64-62 Kansas City Royals (0.5 GB, -26 run differential)
65-63 Los Angeles Angels (0.5 GB, 0 run differential)
65-63 Seattle Mariners (0.5 GB, -12 run differential)
64-63 Texas Rangers (1.0 GB, +33 run differential)
63-66 Tampa Bay Rays (3.0 GB, -14 run differential)
62-65 Baltimore Orioles (3.0 GB, -44 run differential)
60-67 Toronto Blue Jays (5.0 GB, -83 run differential)
The Yankees, with that big run differential and a 3.5-game lead over the Twins for the first wild card, are in the driver’s seat. The Rangers also have a positive run differential, which suggests they are better than their record shows.
Another big factor is the remaining schedule for each team. One of these teams will play 67 percent of their remaining games at home, while others will play around 44 percent of their games in front of the hometown fans. Most teams have a better record at home than on the road, so where they play their remaining games is likely to play a big factor in determining the outcome of this wild-and-wooly wild card race. Let’s take a look at the contenders.