NL Cy Young Award Contenders

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As we near the month of September, which pitchers have set themselves apart from the rest of the pack in the NL Cy Young Award race?

The NL Cy Young Award race will come down to the health of presumptive favorites Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw, with a handful of other pitchers hopeful for the hardware.

Four of the last six NL Cy Young Awards have been won by Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. Kershaw has three on his mantle and Scherzer has the other, which he won just last season. Scherzer also won the AL Cy Young Award in 2013. If this were a normal year, the race for the NL Cy Young Award would be a two-man battle between these two aces.

This isn’t a normal year. Kershaw has been very good, but hasn’t pitched for more than a month. Scherzer has also been very good but has only made three starts in August. In the meantime, one of Kershaw’s teammates, Alex Wood, is 14-1 with a 2.41 ERA, and one of Scherzer’s teammates, Gio Gonzalez, is 12-5 with a 2.39 ERA, and is second in the league in innings pitched. The Nationals also have Stephen Strasburg in the midst of a good season, giving them three pitchers in the upper echelon in the NL to go with those two Dodgers starters and Dodgers reliever Kenley Jansen.

The Diamondbacks also have a pair of starters who should be mentioned—Zack Greinke and Robby Ray. Greinke has more innings and more wins, while Ray has a better ERA. Not to be left out, one of the few bright spots on the Mets should be recognized. Jacob deGrom leads the NL in innings pitched and is one win away from being tied for the league lead in victories.

With around 30 games left per team, a healthy starting pitcher should get five or six more starts this season. Those starts will make a big difference in who stakes his claim to the hardware by the end of the season. The top two contenders, Scherzer and Kershaw, are on teams that could choose to rest their best players because their playoff spots have already been locked in. This could open the door to another pitcher getting some consideration for the award. Let’s take a closer look at the contenders (using their Player’s Weekend nicknames).

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

12-5, 160.3 IP, 220 K, 2.25 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 0.85 WHIP

Scherzer was on cruise control heading into his start on August 1. The Nationals were playing in Miami. Neither team scored in the first inning. The Nationals got on the board in the top of the second with six runs, three of which came on the first home run of Max Scherzer’s career.

When he came out to pitch the bottom of the inning, something wasn’t right and he was removed from the game with neck stiffness. He came back and pitched well on August 7 and again on August 13, but the neck stiffness returned and he was placed on the DL. He’s expected to start on Monday. If he comes back healthy and pitches another five or six starts, he should win the NL Cy Young Award easily.

Even with just three starts in August, Scherzer is in the top 10 in the NL in innings pitched and wins. He leads the league in strikeouts and is second in ERA. His body of work should be enough to earn more votes than other pitchers who may finish with more wins. Of course, this is all dependent on how healthy he is down the stretch. In fact, even a healthy Scherzer may be used judiciously in September because the Nationals are essentially locked-in to the number two seed in the NL playoff picture.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

15-2, 141.3 IP, 168 K, 2.04 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 0.88 WHIP

Clayton Kershaw last pitched in the major leagues on July 23. He left that game after two innings, then took more than a month off before getting back on the mound for the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City on Saturday. He breezed through five innings and struck out eight batters while allowing just one run on two hits. The Dodgers may activate him from the DL later this week.

The Dodgers lead the NL West by 19 games and are 13 games better than the next-best team in the NL, so a playoff spot and home field advantage throughout the playoffs are a near certainty. With such a commanding lead, they won’t need to push Kershaw. He may get four or five more starts. If he pitches like the Clayton Kershaw baseball fans know and love, he’ll lead the NL in ERA for the fifth time in the last seven years. He also has an outside shot at 20 wins.

Kershaw is 20 innings behind Scherzer right now, but both have health questions. If Kershaw finishes with more wins and a better ERA than the Scherz, that could be enough to give him a fourth Cy Young Award even if he doesn’t pitch as many innings.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

13-5, 168.7 IP, 152 K, 2.40 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.11 WHIP

When it comes to award voting, there is still some partisanship among the voters. There are veteran voters who put more weight on traditional statistics like wins and ERA. There are other voters who consider Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Of all the pitchers in the mix for the NL Cy Young Award, Gio Gonzalez has the biggest discrepancy between his 2.40 ERA and his 3.86 FIP.

The difference is stark between how many runs Gonzalez has allowed and how many his FIP suggests he “should” have allowed. He’s third in the NL in ERA, but 12^th in FIP among pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. Per Baseball-Reference WAR, Gonzalez has been the best pitcher in baseball. By FanGraphs WAR, he’s 16^th.

If Gonzalez continues to get the results he’s had so far, there will be voters who will look at his wins, innings, and ERA (13 wins, 168.7 IP, 2.40 ERA) and put him high on their ballot. Others will look at the relatively low strikeout rate (8.1 batters per nine innings) and high 3.86 FIP and drop him a few spots. Where Gonzalez finished in Cy Young voting is a litmus test for the voters. It will show baseball fans what the electorate values most.

Zack Grienke, Arizona Diamondbacks

15-6, 166.3 IP, 182 K, 3.14 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.08 WHIP

Greinke’s Cy Young case will rely on his innings pitched and wins total. He’s currently tied for the league lead in wins, with 15. He has a shot at 20 wins and could lead the NL in innings pitched. It’s a major improvement over last season, when he was limited to 158 2/3 innings and had a 4.37 ERA. This came in the first season of a seven-year, $206.5 million contract. The Diamondbacks may have felt some regret after last year, but Greinke is earning his pay this season.

Should Greinke win 20 games and lead the league in innings pitched, he’ll get some Cy Young votes, but it may not be enough if Scherzer and Kershaw are healthy for another five or six starts. One thing Greinke has going for him is the likelihood that he’ll be needed by the Diamondbacks down the stretch. Scherzer and Kershaw could be rested because their teams have such big leads in their respective divisions.

Greinke’s Diamondbacks are just a game-and-a-half ahead of the Rockies for the first wild card, with the Brewers three-and-a-half games behind the Rockies and the Marlins a game behind the Brewers. Even if the Diamondbacks wrap up a wild card spot with a week or so to play, they may still be in a battle with the Rockies for home field advantage in the one game playoff. Nobody wants to go to Colorado for a one game playoff, so Greinke could be used right up to the end of the regular season to ensure his team gets the home field advantage versus the Rockies. This could help him in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts.

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

14-7, 172.7 IP, 201 K, 3.39 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.16 WHIP

Jake deGrom’s candidacy is similar to Grienke’s. He’ll need to finish strong, continue to lead the league in innings pitched, pick up wins, and lower his ERA. If he makes all of his scheduled starts over the rest of the season, he’ll get six more times on the bump. To really get strong consideration for the top of the ballot, he’ll need to win all six of his starts and get to 20 wins. That will also likely keep him atop the NL in innings pitched. He can’t give up many runs either, because that 3.39 ERA needs to come down.

It’s admittedly a longshot. The Mets are having a terrible year. They’re 21.5 games behind the Nationals in the NL East and 14 games out of a wild card spot. There’s no reason to push deGrom down the stretch in a lost season. Of course, this is the Mets, so who knows what they might do if deGrom continues to win and has a chance at a 20 victories. Heck, it’s the Mets. They might start him on three day’s rest.

The Cy Young ballots have spots for five names. DeGrom isn’t likely to win the award, but he should appear on a few ballots after Scherzer, Kershaw, and Greinke.

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers

14-1, 123.3 IP, 127 K, 2.41 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.01 WHIP

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Wood started the year by going 11-0 with a 1.56 ERA through his first 14 starts. Despite the impressive numbers, Wood was no workhorse. He pitched as many as seven innings in just three starts. Still, that’s a great beginning to the season if a pitcher wants to be in the conversation for the Cy Young Award.

He lost his first game on July 21 when he allowed seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. Over his last six starts, with that July 21 start included, Wood has a 4.42 ERA in 36 2/3 innings. He was placed on the DL with SC joint inflammation in his left shoulder on August 22.

Because of his general fragility and current injury, Wood is not on the leaderboard for ERA because he hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify. If he had, he would be in fourth place, just behind Gio Gonzalez. In order to qualify by the end of the season, he will need to pitch another 39 innings, which would be six or more starts for Wood. That’s unlikely to happen. If he can start a few more games and pick up a few more wins with a good ERA, he could finish the year 16-1 or 17-1 and get some Cy Young votes.

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

5-0, 35 saves, 58.3 IP, 93 K, 1.23 ERA, 1.24 FIP, 0.69 WHIP

Jansen has been about as good as a reliever can be this season. He’s been successful in 35 of his 36 save opportunities and picked up a career-high five wins along the way. He’s stuck out 42.7 percent of the batters he’s faced, which is the highest rate in the NL. Only AL reliever Craig Kimbrel has struck out batters more often. Jansen also has a microscopic 2.8 percent walk rate. He’s been the anchor for the best group of relievers in the National League.

The Dodgers signed Jansen to a five-year, $80 million contract in January. It was the second-largest contract ever for a reliever (after Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86 million contract with the Yankees). Jansen will likely end this year in the range of 3-4 WAR, which equates to $24 to $30 million in value. It’s still only the first year of the deal, but it’s looking good so far.

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As good as Jansen has been, it will be tough for Jansen to get any traction in Cy Young voting. No NL relievers garnered any Cy Young votes last season. Two years ago, closer Mark Melancon was in the final spot on five ballots. Jansen will likely be good enough to get some down ballot votes like Melancon did, but won’t get much love at the top end of the ballot.

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