MLB Postseason: Breaking Down the AL Wild Card Chase

4 of 9

The American League Wild Card hunt is a tangled mess. Which of the contending teams will end up making the MLB postseason?

All a team needs is a chance.

Once the MLB postseason rolls around, it does not matter how the playoff teams reach October. The only thing that matters is that they are there. How often does a team that just barely finds there way into the postseason go on a run, either posing a serious challenge to one of the top teams, or finding themselves in the World Series.

In the American League, there are several teams vying for that chance. Eight teams are within five games of one another, making the the Wild Card spots hotly contested. Even though there is a month left in the season, the postseason picture is still murky when it comes to the Wild Card.

At this point, it is anyone’s guess as to which teams will capture those final two spots. Inconsistency, injuries, and just the sheer volume of teams in contention make this a tough race to call. The Wild Card could well go down to the final games of the season before being decided. But we can take a guess as to which teams will still be in the hunt at that point.

Let us take a look into our crystal ball and see which teams will make their way into the Wild Card game, and punch their tickets to the MLB postseason.

*records current as of 8-31

Kansas City Royals: 65-67

The Kansas City Royals have been almost as schizophrenic as one of my ex-girlfriends. Just when they appeared as though a return tot he postseason was possible, they have fallen off the pace.

It is hard to believe that just a month ago, the Royals were buyers. They brought back Melky Cabrera to solidify their lineup, and fortified the bullpen with Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter. Trevor Cahill was expected to solidify the back of the rotation, with the mistake that was the Travis Wood signing being sent elsewhere. The Royals were making one last run.

For as high as they were riding as the calendar flipped to August, the opposite has been the case this month. Kansas City has been a disaster, as they went 10-18 in August. They were absolutely destroyed by the Cleveland Indians, likely ending any hopes they entertained of winning the AL Central. Jason Vargas has become mortal, and Mike Moustakas has gone more than two weeks without a homer. The Royals have also been beset with injuries, leading to another miserable Eric Skoglund Experience.

And yet, despite their miserable performance this month, the Royals are just four games out of the Wild Card. Granted, they have quite a few teams to get past, but the Royals have defied the odds before. After all, both of their runs to the World Series involved improbable comebacks. Could this Royals team have one more in them?

The Kansas City Royals are still mathematically in the chase for the postseason. Realistically, they are in the dying days of their second run of relevance.

Seattle Mariners: 66-68

You have to give Seattle Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto credit for refusing to give up.

Despite a relatively bleak outlook in regards to this year’s postseason picture, DiPoto has continued to change over his roster. Those moves have continued into August, with the Mariners bringing in Yonder Alonso and Mike Leake to strengthen the roster. Coupled with their moves this offseason, the Mariners are a vastly different team than they were this time last year.

One does have to wonder if those moves have made a major difference. Seattle came into Thursday’s action two games under .500, and four back int he Wild Card. With DiPoto aiming to bring the Mariners back to the postseason for the first time since 2001, that record is not what they had hoped for.

It certainly does not help the Mariners cause that they are missing two of their top starters. Felix Hernandez may not be the ace he was, but he has still been a solid innings eater. James Paxton had emerged as a star before being placed on the disabled list. Those losses may be too much for Seattle to overcome.

The Seattle Mariners are a vastly different team than they were last year, but are they better? Either way, this does not appear to be the year that the postseason drought comes to an end.

Tampa Bay Rays: 67-68

For most of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays were a great story. However, as the calendar flipped to August, they have cooled off.

Heading into the season, it was difficult to imagine that the Rays would compete. In fact, their moves, including the signings of Wilson Ramos and Nathan Eovaldi, appeared to be with 2018 in mind. However, the Rays offense outperformed expectations, as they were slugging their way to victory.

In addition to that offense, the Rays starting rotation performed well. Chris Archer appeared to be an ace once again, and rookie Jacob Faria took the majors by storm when he was called up. Even with the Rays bullpen issues, they were in good shape. That is, until this month. The offense had gone ice cold, and Faria was placed on the disabled list. Jake Odorizzi, who came off a stint on the DL himself, has been awful since his return.

And yet, even with an atrocious August, the Rays are still hovering around .500 and in the chase for the Wild Card. With their pitching staff, and a vastly improved bullpen, it is not outside the realm of possibility that they will continue to contend this year. If the offense can get back to what it was in the first half of the season, the Rays could well surprise.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been a surprise team for most of this season. Even though their window of opportunity may open in 2018, they still have a chance this year.

Texas Rangers: 66-66

One could understand if the Texas Rangers did not expect to be in this position a month ago.

Heading into the trade deadline, the Rangers were 50-55, 19 games out of the American League West. They had parted ways with Yu Darvish, sending him to the Dodgers for a package highlighted by Willie Calhoun. Although they were mathematically in the postseason picture, a run seemed unlikely.

In this case, the unlikely happened. The Rangers caught fire in August, pulling themselves to the .500 mark. Although the AL West was still out of the question, they had managed to work their way back into the Wild Card chase. Rougned Odor, Mike Napoli, and Joey Gallo continued to hit home runs, although they failed to do much else. But strangely, that has been enough.

This resurgence makes one wonder if the Rangers regret trading Darvish. For as good of a run as Texas has been on, having that top of the rotation arm could make a tremendous difference. In a race that could come down to the final weekend, Darvish could be missed, despite the haul he brought back.

The Texas Rangers likely did not expect to contend after their slow start. And yet, as the calendar turns to September, they are in the midst of the postseason chase.

Baltimore Orioles: 68-65

Dan Duquette and Peter Angelos refused to sell at the trade deadline, resulting in derision. As it turns out, they may have been right.

Throughout the month of July, the biggest source of drama involving the Baltimore Orioles involved whether or not they would sell. The Orioles were not going anywhere, and with a limited window of opportunity, could have replenished their farm system. Instead, they were buyers, bringing in Jeremy Hellickson in a move that defied explanation.

At this point, Diquette, Angelos, and the Orioles are the ones laughing now. Baltimore has had an impressive month, going 17-11 heading into last night’s action. With that surge, they have pulled to within 1.5 games of the Wild Card, and are within 2.5 games of overtaking the New York Yankees.

Possessing one of the best bullpens in the game, and with a formidable lineup, the Orioles are making a run. The biggest question will be whether or not the starting rotation can do enough to keep Baltimore in contention. One more strong month could vindicate Duquette and Angelos even more.

The Baltimore Orioles are going on that unforeseen run. They may even have the chance to let Zach Britton actually appear in a postseason game.

Los Angeles Angels: 68-65

The fact that the Los Angeles Angels are on the cusp of making the postseason is close to miraculous in it’s own right.

This season, the Angels have been battered by injuries. Virtually the entire bullpen was on the shelf at one point in time or another, leading to Bud Norris becoming the closer. Then Norris himself became injured. The starting rotation has also been a giant M.A.S.H unit, with only the mediocre Ricky Nolasco on pace to get 30 starts. To make matters even worse, Mike Trout missed time, which was thought to be the death knell for the Angels season.

Yet, every time a player has gone down, someone has stepped up. Eric Young Jr. did an impressive Trout impression when brought up. Parker Bridwell has been a solid addition to the rotation. And the aforementioned Norris looked like a legitimate closer while the Angels bullpen was a collection of castoffs.

Even though they are missing Matt Shoemaker and Garrett Richards, the Angels have continued to impress. Now that Trout is back, and posting his typical MVP caliber season, Los Angeles could find their way in the playoffs. Just imagine if they had anyone in the lineup that could provide Trout with actual protection.

The Los Angeles Angels have refused to fade away. With a resurgent Trout and some key pieces coming back, the Angels could find a way back to the postseason.

Minnesota Twins: 69-63

The Minnesota Twins have a negative run differential, and are outplaying their Pythagorean record by four games. They should, based on performance, be behind the Rays. And yet, they hold down the second Wild Card spot.

This performance is difficult to understand. Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios are the only starters with an ERA better than average, and Berrios is still wildly inconsistent. They took a gamble on Bartolo Colon, who appears to have become that strike throwing machine he was before heading to Atlanta. Even Dillon Gee has been a viable piece since being forced into the rotation.

The bullpen and lineup have had strong performances from unexpected sources as well. Despite striking out fewer than six batters per nine, Brandon Kintzler has been a good closer. Joe Mauer has turned back the clock and become a solid batter once again. Bryon Buxton is starting to look like that elite prospect, and Miguel Sano has been a powerful presence in the lineup when healthy.

A look at the overall makeup of the Twins would not suggest a playoff team. And yet, they may well be a sum greater than their parts, a true team able to find a way to beat anyone on any given night. Despite being left for dead several times, Minnesota just keeps coming. Right now, that has led to the second Wild Card spot.

As unlikely as it may seem for the Minnesota Twins to make the playoffs, it could happen. The Twins have defied the odds this season, so why not a run into October?

New York Yankees: 70-62

The New York Yankees were running away with a playoff spot before their recent struggles. Now, they are struggling at the worst possible time.

More from Call to the Pen

These struggles can be tied directly to several of their stars. Aroldis Chapman, who had been automatic as a closer, has been surprisingly mortal. Perhaps it is due to his usage in the 2016 postseason, but he has not looked right all season, and is working as a mop up pitcher.

On offense, a pair of young stars are trending in the wrong direction. Gary Sanchez will miss time due to his actions during the Yankees brawl with the Tigers. Aaron Judge has had a couple of days off recently to get himself a mental break. After looking like the first player since Ichiro Suzuki to win the AL Rookie of the Year and MVP award in the same season, he has been average at best.

Fortunately for the Yankees, they had added depth. Sonny Gray gives New York an excellent compliment to Masahiro Tanaka, and David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle may be a part of the deepest bullpen in baseball. With the Yankees lineup getting healthy, they could find their way back to the playoffs.

Next: Best players to never appear in majors

If a team is going to take out the New York Yankees, this may be the time. Otherwise, the Yankees could make some noise come October.

Home / MLB Playoffs