Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka opt-out looking more likely with each start

After a nightmare beginning to the season, Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka is pitching himself back into opt-out territory.

Entering the season, Masahiro Tanaka opting out of his contract at the end of the year seemed like a no-brainer. Another performance like the one he had in 2016 and the New York Yankees right-hander would surely be one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the free agent market. Then, the worst months of Tanaka’s career happened.

Over his first 12 starts, spanning April 2 to June 6, Tanaka posted a bloated 6.55 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 66 innings. Opponents managed a .913 OPS against him. Though he sported a solid 3.22 K/BB ratio, he served up home runs at an alarming 2.3 HR/9 rate. Long balls have traditionally been a weakness for Tanaka, even when pitching well, but he was particularly victimized by them in the first half of the season.

Suddenly, Tanaka choosing to become a free agent seemed like far less of a sure thing. Only the contrary, it looked doubtful. With an ERA north of 6.00 in the month of June, he’d be hard-pressed to salvage his season enough to where opting out of the three years and $67 million left on his deal was once again a viable option.

However, the tide turned and Tanaka has looked much more like himself over the latter half of his season. In his most recent 14 outings dating from June 12 onward, he boasts a 3.05 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 5.56 K/BB over 88.2 frames. Opposing batters own just a .644 OPS against him in that span, and Tanaka has allowed a far more agreeable 1.2 HR/9.

Is Tanaka’s resurgence enough to put the opt-out clause back on the table, or is it too little, too late? He probably has about five more starts lined up, and if he’s reasonably effective in them he should be able to get his season ERA down to around the 4.25 area, which would be an impressive feat in its own right considering how terribly he started the year.

He’ll have spent over half the season pitching more like a Cy Young contender than one of the worst pitchers in the league, and teams have shown a willingness to put more stock in recent results when it comes to hurlers. (See Oakland giving Rich Hill $6 million based on only four starts in 2015.) Even career mediocre pitchers are getting surprisingly large paydays.

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Assuming Tanaka finishes the year in strong fashion (admittedly not a given), it’s easier to write off a handful of poor outings in an MLB career that has now featured over 100 of them.

Of course, health remains a factor when it comes Tanaka. He famously avoided Tommy John surgery after suffering a partial tear to his UCL in 2014. The injury hasn’t caused any real trouble since then, but it seems like it’s always going to be at the back of people’s minds. As it stands, Tanaka eclipsed 30 starts in a season for only the first time last year, although he has a shot to do it again this season, his fourth in the major leagues.

Even with the injury concerns and Jekyll-and-Hyde performance this season, it seems a real possibility that at least a couple teams would be willing to offer Tanaka more than the three years and $67 million he’d be making on his current contract. The fact that he turns 29 in November also works in his favor.

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But if Tanaka does jump into the free agent pool, his current club might not chase after him. According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the Yankees wouldn’t be comfortable bidding above what he’s already owed on his existing deal. It would be hard to blame them given the variables attached to Tanaka, but his recent run of success is certainly tempting.

It appears there may be tough decisions for both sides in the coming months.

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