Texas Rangers: Andrew Cashner poised for more enjoyable free agency

How will teams evaluate Andrew Cashner’s rebound season when the Texas Rangers starter enters free agency again this fall?

Andrew Cashner was a bit of a lottery ticket when the Texas Rangers signed him to a one-year, $10 million contract last offseason. The right-hander was coming off a relatively ugly season split between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins. He posted a career-worst 5.25 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 1.87 K/BB ratio in 132 innings. A one-year flyer was probably about as good as Cashner could have hoped for.

Fast forward nearly a year, and Cashner has proven to be an excellent value for the Rangers. In 24 outings, he boasts a 3.19 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 1.50 K/BB over 146.2 frames. He’s been particularly effective since the beginning of July, managing a 2.49 ERA in his last 11 starts. His 4.8 bWAR is the highest mark on the team, just edging Elvis Andrus (4.7).

Fans who may not have been paying much attention to Cashner’s 2017 resurgence received a great chance to see him in action during yesterday’s national broadcast against the Yankees. He turned in a fine performance, limiting his opponents to one run on four hits and a walk with four strikeouts in seven-plus innings.

It would have been a scoreless outing (and possibly a win) if not for a hit batter in the eighth inning that came around to score and tie the game. The Yanks plated two more runs in the ninth to secure a 3-1 victory, aided by a strong showing from starter Luis Severino.

While it was a tough-luck no-decision for Cashner, his continued run of success begs the question of what kind of contract offers he might receive during his latest go-around in free agency. With the impressive numbers he’s currently sporting, surely he’ll be in demand, right?

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Cashner will naturally generate interest if he finishes the year with an ERA in the low 3.00s, considerably more than he did last winter. But there are still a few reasons teams might pause about completely buying into his bounce-back campaign.

His 4.35 FIP is more than a full run higher than his ERA, suggesting Cashner may be somewhat fortunate to be where he is right now. He’s issuing 3.2 walks per nine innings and striking out a career-low 4.8 per nine. That kind of ratio typically wouldn’t indicate the best results.

Cashner has typically done a good job limiting home runs in his career (lifetime 0.9 HR/9), but he’s been even more effective in that regard this year, surrendering 0.7 homers per nine. He’s also working a 7.9 percent home run to fly ball (HR/FB) ratio, down from 14.5 percent last season. Interestingly enough, Cashner has thrived at Globe Life Park in Arlington, traditionally a hitter’s venue: He’s put up a 2.23 ERA in 11 outings at home.

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He’s exhibited flashes of potential throughout his eight seasons in the major leagues, but it’s difficult to imagine any team betting on a legitimate breakout by Cashner at age 31. He’s done very well this season and surely won’t have to settle for another one-year deal. But in all likelihood he’s probably looking at a two- or three-year pact when all is said and done.

Considering the unenviable position he was in a year ago, that’s still a significant boost in value he’s overseen in 2017.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.