NL Wild Card race narrows, which team earns the final spot?

SAN DIEGO, CA - SEPTEMBER 4: Carlos Martinez
SAN DIEGO, CA - SEPTEMBER 4: Carlos Martinez
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DENVER, CO – AUGUST 15: Starting pitcher Kyle Freeland
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 15: Starting pitcher Kyle Freeland /

19 games remain for the NL Wild Card contenders. The race is tight and so much could happen. Which team has the best chance? The St. Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, or Milwaukee Brewers?

Though the NL Central remains up for grabs, the true NL race surrounds the final Wild Card spot. The Chicago Cubs will presumably conquer the Central, leaving both the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals reliant on the Wild Card. Heading west, the Arizona Diamondbacks have surged to a five game separation from the Colorado Rockies for the first Wild Card spot. The Rockies have the current comfort of a NL Wild Card berth, but that could change in a flash.

As it stands today, Milwaukee and St. Louis are three games behind Colorado for the final Wild Card slot. It’s also worth noting that while the Cubs have the most talent in the Central, that they currently hold just a two game lead over the Brewers and Cardinals, which could lead to some interesting games down the stretch.

It just so happens each team has 19 games left on their regular season schedule. So, it’s clearly a fair race, but which team prevails and clinches that final postseason spot and a date with the Arizona Diamondbacks?

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – SEPTEMBER 03: Luke Weaver
SAN FRANCISCO, CA – SEPTEMBER 03: Luke Weaver /

Each game remaining for the Cardinals is against a divisional opponent. This includes seven games against the Cubs, and what could be a make-or-break season finale series at home against the Brewers. The Cards are 4-8 against the Cubs this season and 7-9 against the Brewers. In total, they are 25-31 against their division. St. Louis’ divisional record does not bode well given their remaining schedule.

The Cardinals are known for their steadiness year after year, however, they had drifted from their customary play for much of the 2017 season. St. Louis has been up and down all year. They will go 5-2 one week, and 2-5 the following week. Inconsistency has placed the Cardinals behind the eight ball.

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That being said, they remain in contention for both the division and for the Wild Card. September has always been a friendly month to a Cardinals’ franchise which has a history of playoff success. The same goes for this September. St. Louis is 8-2 so far this month. They are playing great ball at a great time.

Much thanks goes to starting pitcher Luke Weaver, who has been outstanding, going 5-1 in his six starts since returning to the St. Louis rotation. Weaver, along with Lance Lynn, have been crucial to the team’s recent success.

Starting pitching is the backbone of the Cardinals’ squad. Their offense may be hit or miss, but their pitching can carry them to the postseason and beyond. We’ll see how the next 19 games play out, but one thing is for sure: The St. Louis Cardinals are the most dangerous team in the race, and they are certainly the Diamondbacks’ last choice to play in a one-game playoff.

ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 27: Charlie Blackmon
ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 27: Charlie Blackmon /

The Rockies have the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams. After an upcoming four game series with the Diamondbacks, the Rockies will play their next nine games between the Padres and Giants.

They will then play three against the Marlins, and close with three against the Dodgers. Though the Dodgers should have all of their regular season business wrapped up by then, perhaps giving their everyday players a rest, and setting up an opportunity for the Rockies.

The Rockies, however, are just about the polar opposite of the Cardinals. Colorado is led by an elite offense. MVP candidates Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado can take over a game at any time. DJ LeMahieu, Mark Reynolds, and Gerardo Parra are having nice seasons. Additionally, Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez have finally gotten hot of late.

But when the offense goes cold, it places added pressure on the starting pitching staff. The Rockies’ staff has held up this season, though it is not talented enough or experienced enough to carry any sudden weight. This especially applies in the closing month of the season. Thus, it is up to the offense to take Colorado to the postseason.

MILWAUKEE, WI – AUGUST 30: Chase Anderson
MILWAUKEE, WI – AUGUST 30: Chase Anderson /

The Brewers benefit from having 10 of their remaining 19 games at home. Miller Park has helped the Brew Crew to a 39-32 record. A four game home series against the Chicago Cubs from September 21-24 will certainly be interesting given all that will be at stake. The same goes for the aforementioned three game series at St. Louis to finish the regular season. The good news for Milwaukee is that much of their playoff hopes will be in their control.

Unfortunate news broke for the Brewers Saturday morning as they became aware that Jimmy Nelson will miss the remainder of the season. Nelson, who could be considered the team’s ace this season, suffered a rotator cuff strain after diving back to first base.

With the loss of Nelson, the rest of the Brewers’ rotation will be under significant pressure. So far, Chase Anderson and Zach Davies have done their part, but the they’ll need other starters to step up to overcome the absence of Jimmy Nelson.

At this point in the season it is difficult to feel confident in any facet of the Brewers’ game. Their current roster has very little meaningful September/October experience. Though their offense can stockpile runs on any given day, the unit can also go quiet for extensive stretches.

The prize is so close for this young Brewers’ team. With that being said, the stakes are high, and it is essential that each player continues to do their individual job for the benefit of their team. A young and inexperienced bunch often tends to do too much when a win is at its highest demand.

SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 6: Stephen Piscotty
SAN DIEGO, CA – SEPTEMBER 6: Stephen Piscotty /

The St. Louis Cardinals. Colorado and Milwaukee are certainly the feel good stories, however, St. Louis has the makeup worthy of a playoff team. The Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers are on the rise and will have their share of playoff opportunities in the coming years. As of this moment, each team has weaknesses that they will not be able to overcome for a 2017 playoff berth.

Sure, the Brewers just swept the World Series champs and the Rockies just downed the presumptive champs (up until a couple of weeks ago), but as the month wares on, they’ll start to feel the pressure–something the Cardinals are all too familiar with.

Next: Giants 2018 third base options

St. Louis has been the forgotten team in the Wild Card race. The Cards have been the chasers all year, but they are clicking at the right time and they are the most complete of the three teams in play.

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