MLB is experiencing a huge influx of home runs over the last two seasons. However, it’s not just the league that is seeing odd numbers – it’s players as well.
Since mid-season 2015, there has been a distinct rise in the home run rate across MLB. That led to one of baseball’s highest home run rates in 2016, only to see it bested this season. However, while many are reporting on the league-wide trend and the top of the leaderboard hitters, what seems to be missing is some of the other oddities in player numbers that are popping up in this new era.
League numbers
In 2014, MLB saw 4,186 home runs hit in 4,860 games, for an average of 0.86 HR/G. One player, Nelson Cruz, hit 40 home runs, and a total of 7 hit 35+. To just eclipse 20 home runs was something 57 hitters did in 2014.
Last season, in 2016, that number was up to 5,610 home runs over 4,856 games, for an average of 1.16 per game. The leader was Mark Trumbo with 47, but 8 players had 40 or more home runs on the season, more than hit 5 less home runs just two seasons prior. Seventeen hitters had 35 or more home runs, and 111 hitters knocked out at least 20 home runs, almost double the 2014 number.
Those numbers have all increased again in 2017. There have already been 5,464 home runs hit going into Tuesday evening’s games, in just 4,306 games played, leading to a 1.27 HR/G average across baseball. With 2.5 weeks to go in the season, the leader is Giancarlo Stanton with 54, and while currently only one other player has more than 40, 9 have already hit 35 with 27 over the 30 mark on the season. Tuesday evening, the 100th player cleared 20 home runs on the season as well, and there are still another 20 more with 18 or 19 on the season that could certainly clear that 20 mark easily, let alone players who could go on a hot streak and push themselves from 12-13 to the 20 mark.
2016 oddities
Oddities can come both in positive and negative ways, so there are some who hit plenty more home runs than before in their career and some who hit plenty less:
Hitting for big power:
While not powerless before, Brian Dozier surged from a career high of 28 to 42 in 2016
Never hitting more than 11 at any level of the minors even, Brad Miller hit 30 for the Rays
More of a gap hitter with some 10-15 home run power, Marcus Semien powered out 27 home runs in 2016
Starlin Castro never topped 14 home runs in 6 big league seasons before hitting 21 in 2016
Jean Segura had never hit more than 12 in any season, majors or minors, before hitting 20 in 2016
The other half of the Yankees middle infield, Didi Gregorius, went from never eclipsing 9 in any season to 20 in 2016 (and 21 so far in 2017!)
Most notable was Freddy Galvis, who 20 total home runs in 1150+ plate appearances before 2016 and hit 20 in the 2016 season
Jonathan Villar became a fantasy darling when he took a previous major/minor league high of 11 HR in a season and turned it into 19 (with 62 SB)
Known as a gap power guy, Scooter Gennett couldn’t hold onto a job in Milwaukee, in spite of 14 HR spiking nearly 50% more than he’d ever hit before, leading to his huge 2017 (24 HR so far w/Cincinnati)
The guys who struggled to take it deep in spite of power reputations:
The Yankees acquired switch-hitting Chase Headley from the Padres, hoping the short right field porch would bring back his 2012 31-HR season, but for the 3rd year with the team, he had a sub-.400 SLG, with 14 HR in 529 PA
Aaron Hill‘s power has always been inconsistent to whether it was gap or home run, but it’s always been there, until 2016, when he dropped to a .378 slugging as the league around him exploded with power
Injuries plagued Josh Reddick after a 32-HR season in 2012, but he hit 20 in 2015 before falling off to 10 in 2016
The biggest power outage came from one of the most mammoth men on the field in Jason Heyward, whose stature has never quite matched his offensive output, but in 2016, it was at its worst, hitting just 7 home runs with a .325 SLG in 592 plate appearances
Now let’s take a look at some of the players experiencing intriguing numbers in 2017, starting first with those who are hitting for surprisingly high numbers of home runs…
Built as a long, lean ideal shortstop that can range with good ability to use that frame to pound the gaps with good long legs to run on balls to the gap, I don’t know of a single scout who had Lindor as a guy who would have much power as a big leaguer. Even when he hit 15 last season in his first full season, many scouts were surprised. Tuesday night, Lindor connected for his 30th of the season!
Certainly the “Mighty Mouse” of this group (though that nickname is reserved for Jose Altuve), Andrus had a total of 35 home runs in nearly 5200 plate appearances coming into this year, but the Rangers shortstop has erupted for 20 this season.
Originally a highly touted prospect in the Texas Rangers system, Smoak reached the majors with the Rangers, only to be traded to the Mariners. A 6’4″ guy with a big frame, he never put up the power that his size would indicate, topping out at 20 home runs in a season in 2013. This season, however, he’s made a drastic shift, and he’s powered out 37 home runs while also maintaining a .280 batting average as well.
Once nearly as famous for his Twitter account as his baseball skills, LoMo has always had the power projection in his bulky 6’2″ frame, but his previous high was the 23 home runs he hit in his first full season with the Marlins. This year with the Rays, he’s not hitting for a terrific average, but he’s still knocking balls out of the park at a tremendous rate, with a season total of 36 so far.
One of the more impressive college swings you’ll ever see when he was at the University of Miami, Alonso came into professional baseball with the expectation that he would hit for both average and power. While he hit for the average, ht didn’t give enough power to keep on the field, topping out with 9 home runs in 2012. Though he was hurt in the second half, Alonso has his 25 home runs on the season in just 478 plate appearances.
Ramirez has gone from a utility man to an incredibly vital piece of the 2016 Indians World Series run to a legit 2017 AL MVP candidate, and a big part is the fact that he’s gone from a career high of 11 home runs in 2016 to 26 so far in 2017, along with an isolated power number almost 100 points higher than he’s posted at any level in his career (.257).
While Shaw has always had power in his lefty swing, he’s never really been able totap into it, with a previous single season high of 16 at any single level over a season and 21 for combined levels in a minor league season. He’s got 29 in his first season with the Brewers this year.
Heading into free agency after this season and coming off of a major injury in 2016, Moustakas knew he needed to have a big year in 2017. He has already tied the Royals single-season record with 36, but most impressive is that he’s keeping his strikeout rate low as he has now eclipsed his previous career high of 22 HR in 2015.
The former #1 overall draft pick was always known for his breadth of athleticism, but he never seemed to be able to put it all together at the plate, but he was finally doing it with the Rays before a mid-season trade to the Orioles, and he’s gone off since the move. Never having more than 9 at any one level in a season, Beckham now has 21 on the 2017 season.
A quality middle infielder over his career, Taylor simply could do enough to crack a big league starting lineup at any position, peaking in the minor leagues with 7 home runs. This season he has 19 for the Dodgers in a super utility role.
Merrifield lost out on the opening day second base job, but once Raul Mondesi struggled, he came up, and he’s been arguably the Royals MVP on the season with his performance, including powering out 17 home runs when he’s never topped more than 8 home runs at any level in a single season before this year.
And now to the hitters who have seen their big bats go dry this season:
In his fifteen years in MLB, Miggy has hit 30 or more home runs 11 times, slugged .500 or more 13 times, and had an ISO of .200+ 13 times. This season he will fall short of all three of those marks. Cabrera is currently sporting his worst batting average, OPS and SLG of his career. He’s striking out over 20% of the time for the first time since he was 21 years old. It’s not that Cabrera has been slowly aging and this is simply a next step down, as Cabrera his .316/.393/.563 with 38 home runs just last season.
Of course as I write this, Gonzalez finally breaks out with a pair of home runs in the same game, but that has not been the case for Gonzalez all season. When healthy, Gonzalez has consistently been a guy who hits 25+ home runs with a .200 ISO. In 2017, Gonzalez has a .153 ISO and he has 12 home runs, even playing 122 games on the season, so he’s been relatively healthy throughout the season while producing rough hitting numbers.
Pence’s impressive aggressiveness in all he does withing the game has often caught up to him in nicks and dings that leave him laid up, but he’s always produced as a solid gap hitter with 20-25 home run power when he was at the plate – until this season. He’s played around injuries this season as well, but he’s put up a career-worst .118 ISO and .378 SLG while hitting just 11 home runs over 490 plate appearances.
Once the greatest-hyped prospect on the internet, with his own Chuck Norris facts sort of website, Wieters has developed into a power-hitting catcher before he went through Tommy John surgery. Then he came back in 2016 and hit 17 home runs with a .165 ISO. Even in his early seasons as he struggled, he never got as low as the .120 ISO and .352 SLG he’s posted this season, with just 9 home runs in 421 plate appearances.
If Wieters had the most hyped prospect status, around the same time, Gordon had the highest regard of any prospect in the game, considered to be a likely power hitter with speed and solid defense at the hot corner. Third base didn’t work out, but Gordon has developed into an elite defensive left fielder, consistently hitting 15-20 home runs with good gap power. Instead, as the rest of MLB was blowing up with home runs, Gordon has hit 6 all season in 2017 with a .094 ISO and a .300 SLG.
After a career that has seen over 300 home runs, a .200+ ISO for his career, and a nearly .500 career SLG, Adrian Gonzalez seems to be hitting a wall offensively. Gonzalez has missed some time on the field this year, which is what opened the door for Cody Bellinger to have a huge season in 2017. Gonzalez has hit just 2 home runs over 243 plate appearances with a .099 ISO and a .341 mark.
Are there more that you’ve noticed in the last year? Comment below!
