Odd home run totals in an MLB league-wide home run boom

MLB is experiencing a huge influx of home runs over the last two seasons. However, it’s not just the league that is seeing odd numbers – it’s players as well.

Since mid-season 2015, there has been a distinct rise in the home run rate across MLB. That led to one of baseball’s highest home run rates in 2016, only to see it bested this season. However, while many are reporting on the league-wide trend and the top of the leaderboard hitters, what seems to be missing is some of the other oddities in player numbers that are popping up in this new era.

League numbers

In 2014, MLB saw 4,186 home runs hit in 4,860 games, for an average of 0.86 HR/G. One player, Nelson Cruz, hit 40 home runs, and a total of 7 hit 35+. To just eclipse 20 home runs was something 57 hitters did in 2014.

Last season, in 2016, that number was up to 5,610 home runs over 4,856 games, for an average of 1.16 per game. The leader was Mark Trumbo with 47, but 8 players had 40 or more home runs on the season, more than hit 5 less home runs just two seasons prior. Seventeen hitters had 35 or more home runs, and 111 hitters knocked out at least 20 home runs, almost double the 2014 number.

Those numbers have all increased again in 2017. There have already been 5,464 home runs hit going into Tuesday evening’s games, in just 4,306 games played, leading to a 1.27 HR/G average across baseball. With 2.5 weeks to go in the season, the leader is Giancarlo Stanton with 54, and while currently only one other player has more than 40, 9 have already hit 35 with 27 over the 30 mark on the season. Tuesday evening, the 100th player cleared 20 home runs on the season as well, and there are still another 20 more with 18 or 19 on the season that could certainly clear that 20 mark easily, let alone players who could go on a hot streak and push themselves from 12-13 to the 20 mark.

2016 oddities

Oddities can come both in positive and negative ways, so there are some who hit plenty more home runs than before in their career and some who hit plenty less:

Hitting for big power:

• While not powerless before, Brian Dozier surged from a career high of 28 to 42 in 2016
• Never hitting more than 11 at any level of the minors even, Brad Miller hit 30 for the Rays
• More of a gap hitter with some 10-15 home run power, Marcus Semien powered out 27 home runs in 2016
• Starlin Castro never topped 14 home runs in 6 big league seasons before hitting 21 in 2016
• Jean Segura had never hit more than 12 in any season, majors or minors, before hitting 20 in 2016
• The other half of the Yankees middle infield, Didi Gregorius, went from never eclipsing 9 in any season to 20 in 2016 (and 21 so far in 2017!)
• Most notable was Freddy Galvis, who 20 total home runs in 1150+ plate appearances before 2016 and hit 20 in the 2016 season
• Jonathan Villar became a fantasy darling when he took a previous major/minor league high of 11 HR in a season and turned it into 19 (with 62 SB)
• Known as a gap power guy, Scooter Gennett couldn’t hold onto a job in Milwaukee, in spite of 14 HR spiking nearly 50% more than he’d ever hit before, leading to his huge 2017 (24 HR so far w/Cincinnati)

The guys who struggled to take it deep in spite of power reputations:

• • The Yankees acquired switch-hitting Chase Headley from the Padres, hoping the short right field porch would bring back his 2012 31-HR season, but for the 3rd year with the team, he had a sub-.400 SLG, with 14 HR in 529 PA
  • Aaron Hill‘s power has always been inconsistent to whether it was gap or home run, but it’s always been there, until 2016, when he dropped to a .378 slugging as the league around him exploded with power
  • Injuries plagued Josh Reddick after a 32-HR season in 2012, but he hit 20 in 2015 before falling off to 10 in 2016
  • The biggest power outage came from one of the most mammoth men on the field in Jason Heyward, whose stature has never quite matched his offensive output, but in 2016, it was at its worst, hitting just 7 home runs with a .325 SLG in 592 plate appearances

Now let’s take a look at some of the players experiencing intriguing numbers in 2017, starting first with those who are hitting for surprisingly high numbers of home runs…