In the 2016 postseason, the Cleveland Indians rode the relief work of Andrew Miller to a revolution in how teams are looking at young arms. Who could be the next MLB arms to fill that role?
From the time that Tony LaRussa began structuring his bullpens with match up relievers and one-inning closers, the build of a bullpen has changed drastically. Many older fans (or fans of less pitching changes) hearken for the days of power-armed relievers who could handle 2-3 innings when called upon, dominating the opposition’s lineup.
When Andrew Miller moved into the bullpen with the Boston Red Sox in 2012, he immediately saw his career take an upswing. He was the hottest item on the 2014 midseason trade market, and after continuing his dominance for a season with the Yankees, he was traded in 2016 at the midseason mark to Cleveland, who immediately altered how the reliever would be used. No longer would he be a guy who would come out to throw just one inning at a time, sometimes 2-3 days per week. Instead, he would be used 1-2 times per week, but for multiple innings, building him up for a playoff run when Miller was the ALCS MVP along the way to throwing 10 postseason games, pitching 19 1/3 innings, and posting a 1.40 ERA and 0.88 WHIP along with a crazy 5/30 BB/K ratio.
This season has seen a few teams adopt somewhat of a similar strategy as the Houston Astros have employed Chris Devenski in a similar manner, the Chicago Cubs have effectively used Mike Montgomery as a fill-in starter when he’s not being used in a similar way out of the bullpen, the Dodgers have sent out Ross Stripling in a familiar way, and the Arizona Diamondbacks were utilizing both Archie Bradley and Randall Delgado in that manner for quite some time this season.
So who could be the next pitchers to dominate a postseason in this manner? First, we should look at what exactly we’re looking for when reviewing the pitchers who make good candidates.
Pseudo Requirements
Many former top relievers are “failed” starters, so that’s not exactly a requirement, but in the cases of most of the players who have succeeded in this role, their value as a starter was not completely lost, but due to an issue with maintaining health or keeping their delivery over 5 innings, starting became clear as not the future path.
With most of the guys this works best for, the commonality is height. Part of that issue with keeping consistent mechanics is that it occurs very frequently with pitchers who are 6’6″ or taller. Miller is 6’7″, and while none of the guys mentioned previously are THAT tall, none is shorter than 6’3″ either.
Last, but not least, a dominant secondary pitch to go with a fastball that plays up in short bursts. Miller’s is his sweeping slider, but it could be a killer change up or a nasty split finger or a knee-buckling curve. Whatever it is, the pitch tends to get a load of strikeouts at the minor league level.
So let’s take a look at some of the young pitchers who could be filling this role in the near future, starting with one who is getting his feet wet in the role already…
The long legs, long arms, and long flowing hair would lead one to think Hader’s actually taller than he is, but he still stands in at 6’3″. The 23 year-old opened the season with the Brewers’ AAA club in Colorado Springs, where he had a rough 5.37 ERA, after finishing with a similar 5.22 ERA at the level in half a season there last year.
On his third organization after originally being drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 19th round of the 2012 draft, Hader got to Milwaukee as part of the deal that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to Houston. He absolutely dominated AA in the first half of 2016, but he ran into a buzzsaw at AAA. Many thought he would bounce back as Colorado Springs is a difficult pitching environment, but instead, he slipped further, seemingly forcing the Brewers’ hand on whether he would remain a starter or transition to he bullpen.
Hader has a similar arsenal to Miller, with a fastball that can run up to the upper 90s and sits in the 92-95 area most of the time. From the bullpen that moves up even further on the velocity scale, as he can bump up against triple digits on the top end. He also uses a nasty slider that is difficult for hitters to pick up from his low 3/4 arm slot, often compared in his arm slot and angle to fellow left Chris Sale.
While Hader would have the upside of a front line type of starter in the rotation, moving him to the bullpen was looked at as a short-term move, but he’s taken so well to the role that he may be there for the long haul. Hader has posted a 1.85 ERA over 30 appearances and 39 innings, with a 1.03 WHIP and a 21/55 BB/K ratio. There is still some wildness, but he is so difficult to square up in short bursts that Hader could have incredible value out of the bullpen for his career.
Very feasible that Glasnow was the top-rated pitching prospect in preseason prospect rankings that you saw, depending on when they came out – either before or after the Alex Reyes injury.
Glasnow was originally drafted in 2011 in the 5th round by the Pirates, and he was known to need more development time than most due to his long, lean frame at 6’8″. He’s filled out to 220-230 pounds, but he’s still quite lean in that long frame, and he can get off in his mechanics with his long levers.
Glasnow won a starting spot out of spring training with excellent work throughout the spring, but he simply could not keep the ball over the plate without it leaving the ballpark seemingly while in Pittsburgh. He posted a 7.89 ERA in 13 starts with 13 home runs allowed and a 5.53 BB/9.
Sent down to AAA Indianapolis, he showed again the tremendous talent in his right arm, posting a 1.93 ERA over 15 starts, with a 3.09 BB/9 and a 13.5 K/9 over 93 1/3 innings.
Glasnow is a prime example of a guy would fit perfectly due to mechanics issues. He had his mechanics in line in AAA and spring training and was excellent. He got off in MLB and couldn’t get anything right. Glasnow features a fastball that comes in up to 99 MPH, and his curve is incredible.
Whether the Pirates will take this step with Glasnow in 2018 or attempt one more season as a starter seems to point to the same final role, a dominant reliever who could go multiple innings.
Coming out of high school, Garrett had the talent to be recruited to play college basketball as well as be drafted by major league baseball, and the Reds were willing to allow him to do both, so he did both, focusing on baseball solely as of 2014.
That leaves Garrett a bit older than the average prospect, but it also means he’s a significantly better athlete than most pitchers as well. The issue with his mechanics throwing off his control really is not the same as most, who have issues with consistency of their lower half getting into the same spot each time. Garrett does a good job of getting to the same spot in his lower half, but he has a bad habit of having his release point wander with his arm, and that is where he finds control issues.
Garrett works from the left side with a fastball that can run up past the mid-90s, clocked as high as 96-97. Putting him in short stints consistently could allow for even another tick of velocity. His slider is sharp and comes from a tough angle due to his 6’5″ height, making being able to square up Garrett seem impossible in short stints.
Garrett won a starting role in Cincinnati and made an impact initially, but as the season wore on, he seemed to get tired and really struggle in that arm slot more than he had before. He ended up posting a 7.59 ERA at the major league level and even had an ERA of 5.72 at AAA.
The Reds showed with a number of pitchers this season that they could use bullpen pieces in flexible ways, and it would surprise no one if they did the same with Garrett this coming season as he’s already 25 years old.
Originally drafted 23rd overall in the 2011 draft by the Washington Nationals, Meyer is now on his third organization after being traded twice and fighting through a load of injuries to this point in his career.
When healthy, there’s no doubt about his raw stuff. From his 6’9″ frame, Meyer can unleash a fastball that bumps against triple digits along with a knuckle curve that seems to leave hitters baffled when he’s really on top of the pitch.
After time with the Nationals and the Minnesota Twins, Meyer has seen a significant change to his mechanics with the Angels, as they’ve worked with him to get to more of a true 3/4 arm slot to even a high-3/4 slot. That has allowed his curve to play up especially, but it’s also allowed his fastball to get much more late life low in the zone.
Meyer had a nice season in the Angels rotation when healthy this season, posting a 3.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and striking out 10.02 K/9. However, he also had a nasty 5.61 BB/( and only made 18 starts total between the majors and minors on the season. With Meyer turning 28 before next season, he’s really beyond the time to still be attempting to “develop” into a starter.
A move to a multi-inning reliever role would allow him to use his two fastballs and curve to get through the lineup once over if need be while still dominating and having that full triple digit velocity to fire at hitters.
Staumont has two very distinct things to know about him. First, he can throw 100 miles per hour, seemingly with ease. Second, he often struggles to know where it, or any of his other pitches, are going.
One of the shortest pitchers we’ll discuss on this list, Staumont stands 6’3″, but he’s quite athletic at that height. He was originally drafted by the Royals out of Azusa Pacific in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft. He had an incredibly impressive 3.67 ERA in his final college season in spite of walking over 7 BB/9.
Staumont led the minors in 2016 in walks with 104, and he followed up by walking 97 in 2017. He also struck out 167 and 138 in those two seasons in full-season ball. The Arizona Fall League in 2016 really exploded Staumont’s prospect stock, leading to him being ranked as the #1 prospect in the Royals system by multiple ranking services.
Staumont’s fastball is straight, but it can tough up to 102 in short stints, sitting in the upper 90s as a starter. He has a two-seam fastball that really gets swings, but it is even harder to keep in the zone, so the Royals have had him focusing on his four-seam heat. Staumont’s curve has 11-5 shape and is an absolute out-pitch, arguably a 70 grade pitch if he could consistently keep the pitch within the zone.
Staumont’s highly productive time in the Arizona Fall League was when he was used in shorter stints, primarily out of the bullpen. Staumont would be very impressive in that same role with the Royals, arguably bringing in a new generation of dominant Royals bullpen arm.
Incredibly tall and lean when he was signed in 2010 as an 18 year old, Gregorio was already 6’7″, but he was barely 170 pounds. He was extremely raw, having just learned to truly pitch rather than just throw.
Gregorio has filled out to a still-lean 200ish pounds on the mound now, and he’s worked his way up the Giants system, building up arm strength to the point where he’s now working in the low-90s with a fastball that has excellent plane that can touch mid-90s as a starter, and would likely work up to more like sitting 93-95 and touching 96-97 with both his two-seam and four-seam fastball.
Gregorio has an excellent slider, though personally I’m more impressed with his change working off of his two-seam fastball, so he could work with a mix of his two fastballs and change to be very effective in a relief role while sprinkling in the slider.
Gregorio was suspended mid-season this year for performance enhancing substances, so even though he exhibited excellent numbers at AAA (3.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP over 74 IP) as a starter, he’ll likely be looking at a bullpen role as he’s going to be 26 before he’s back on the mound again.
Gregorio will be eligible for minor league free agency this winter, so it will be interesting to see if the Giants choose to keep him with the suspension hanging over him or let him go. If he’s put onto the market, someone could end up with a very useful piece for their bullpen.
Another “late” international signee like Gregorio, who was signed to his contract at 18 years old, Kilome also is another long, gangly arm that hadn’t really even mastered working with his fastball when he was signed, let alone anything else.
Kilome is a long-limbed 6’6″ on the mound with a fastball that can touch upper 90s but sits around 95. He gets excellent plane on the pitch with his long limbs and height. He has two curveballs, first a spike curve that he struggles to get in the zone and second a more traditional curve.
Kilome’s change is still a significant work in progress. He’s made some progress this season on the pitch, but it’s still definitely a below average pitch. He’s improved his location on the pitch significantly, but it still has work to go in repeating arm speed and getting action on the pitch to make it effective as a starter.
Though Kilome reached AA as a starter in 2017 with decent results, there is a significant group of high-end arms coming behind him in the system. He could have a very significant career working as a multi-inning reliever.
With a fastball that can work to triple digits and a frame that could even add more, Perez is one of the most interesting arms in the entire Yankees system, which is saying quite a bit.
Perez was signed by the Yankees in 2014 at 18 years old in 2014 during the signing period when the Yankees handed out nearly $20M in bonuses, but they got Perez for a mere $10,000. He was extremely raw due to his wiry frame at 6’8″ and roughly 175 pounds at signing. He’s added 15-20 pounds, but he’s still very lean in his build.
Perez operates with a fastball that sits 93-95 and can touch 98-99 with tremendous late life and his long arms and frame give him unique plane on the pitch. He works with a curve and a change, but his change is much more of a dominant pitch, showing surprising ability to repeat his arm speed and get as much as 20 MPH variance in speed.
Perez has only just reached full season ball in 2017, though he had a tremendous year. He made 24 starts, with a 2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 45/117 BB/K over 123 2/3 IP. The Yankees could choose to keep working Perez as a starter for now, hoping his curve and change catch up to allow him to reach the majors as a starter, but he’s already 21, and his raw stuff could allow him to accelerate to the major leagues and to be incredibly effective once he arrived in the multi-inning reliever role.
The Braves drafted a number of pitchers projected as future relievers in the 2015 draft and worked with them as starters, seeing a number of them show well as starters while others have found their way back to the bullpen. Sadly, Weigel is the one so far that found his way to the disabled list with Tommy John, likely out most of 2018.
When he’s healthy, Weigel has a powerful right arm. The Braves initially brought him in through the 7th round of the 2015 draft out of Houston, which was his third school in college and where he was a reliever. His velocity was present in his pro debut with Danville, but not much else.
Then he went to Rome in 2016 and really took to the tutelage of pitching coach Dan Meyer, who worked with him to use his breaking balls and change up effectively. His fastball has topped triple digits in short bursts and has good life to it. His two breaking pitches are really about even in effectiveness, as he can use a hard slider and a sweeping curve to get three different velocity planes going.
Weigel showed well with AA Mississippi this season before earning a promotion to Gwinnett. A pair of really bad starts altered his AAA numbers, but his overall line on the season was 15 starts, 78 1/3 innings, with a 4.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 28/68 BB/K ratio.
Weigel’s 6’6″ frame allows him to get excellent angle on his pitches, and he should work very well as a multi-inning option with his fastball and breaking pitches as a three pitch arsenal in the role.
