Toronto Blue Jays extend Marco Estrada, signal their intentions this winter

The Toronto Blue Jays sit in the basement in the AL East at 71-80 and are primed for their first losing season since 2013. By reportedly coming to terms with Marco Estrada, 34, on a one-year, $13 million deal, the Jays are signaling that there won’t be a big sell-off this winter.

Yesterday the thought crept into my head that a piece on which Toronto Blue Jays could be on the move this offseason would be a good thing to get up as quickly as possible, being that they’re well out of the playoff picture in the American League and have some talent that could help them kickstart a rebuild.

Adding prospects to couple with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would make for what could be a powerhouse team in just a couple year’s time. With Josh Donaldson and J.A. Happ under club control for just one more season and their bread and butter offense struggling to a 92 wRC+ this season which ranks 24th in the game, looking ahead could be the smart play for Toronto.

Instead, it appears as though they are going to look to make some upgrades this winter while rolling with a lot of the same players. Marco Estrada will be in his age 34 season in 2018 but he has been the third-best pitcher on the staff this year behind Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna. In three starts this month he is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, lowering his season mark to 4.84 across 31 starts.

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According to Spotrac, the Blue Jays have a payroll of just over $199 million, but assuming they don’t bring back Jose Bautista, who has a mutual option for 2018, that would save the team $17 million for next season and give them a little room to work with. Not a whole lot, however, considering that Donaldson will be in his final year of arbitration and will be making somewhere in the neighborhood of $20-22 million with his 2017 salary being $17 million. Donaldson’s injury this season may have cost them on the field, but could save them a few million for next year’s payroll.

I can see why the Blue Jays are looking to compete again in 2018. After many many losing seasons, they’re looking to keep the good times rolling, chalking up 2017 as a mirage.

In reality, they are in a division filled with contenders, particularly the Yankees and Red Sox, who will likely get even better next season and perhaps beyond. With both of those teams clearly being the class of the AL East, that would relegate the Jays’ best hope at a playoff berth as a Wild Card team, which they have had success with before and made it to the ALCS, but outside of a collection of injuries to the rosters from Houston, Boston, New York and Cleveland, it’s hard to fathom Toronto being a legitimate contender next season with such little payroll flexibility.

Of course, there is the trade market, but Oakland isn’t about to give up another Donaldson this winter, and even if the Orioles entertained the idea of trading Manny Machado, the two positions he plays, third base and shortstop, are already filled by guys that make over $20 million a season.

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The American League has room to collect a bunch of wins, with the A’s, Tigers, White Sox all rebuilding, the Royals likely to take a hit with so many pending free agents, and the Mariners likely primed for a letdown with an aging roster riddled with injuries and no farm system. The problem is that none of those teams resides in the AL East, which means that those opportunities are few and far between for Toronto, and ripe for everyone else looking to make a run.

If I was running the Jays, I’d sell what I could this winter and build up the farm system around Bichette and Guerrero Jr., giving the team a longer window of contention than they currently have to work with.

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