The Milwaukee Brewers fell off a cliff at the start of the second half. Since then they have been clawing their way back into the NL Central race. With the Chicago Cubs coming to town starting tonight, they’ll have their best chance to gain some ground.
To the surprise of everyone, the Milwaukee Brewers have hung around the divisional race to this point in the season. The Chicago Cubs were expected to run away with the Central before the season started, and even though they regained control of the division not long after the second half began, the Brewers righted their ship in time to keep their divisional aspirations within grasp.
Entering play on Thursday, the Brew Crew sits 3.5 games behind the Cubbies in the Central and just one game back of the Colorado Rockies in the NL Wild Card. Suffice it to say, wins are imperative for this club if they hope to make it to the postseason.
At 81-71, their season has already been a success, and with their front office not pulling the trigger on a huge move at either trade deadline, for them to still be in the hunt and have their plentiful prospect bounty to pluck from in the future is a huge bonus.
Early on, the Brewers may have been able to take teams by surprise. Now, the Cubs know what they’re in for. In their most recent series in Chicago, Milwaukee swept the Cubs and outscored them 20-3.
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Tonight, the Brewers will be sending their best current starter to the mound in Zach Davies (17-9, 3.89) to face off with soon-to-be free agent Jake Arrieta (14-9, 3.48). The Cubs are 2-0 when Arrieta faces the Brewers this season and the right-hander has totaled 13 innings and given up three earned in that span. This isn’t exactly a must-win for The Crew if they hope to take the reigns from Chicago, but getting tagged with a loss with Davies on the bump would certainly be a big blow, especially after the Pirates came back last night to steal a win that would have put Milwaukee one game closer.
On Friday it will be the angry veteran John Lackey (11-11, 4.62) against 24-year-old rookie Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 3.28). This will be Woodruff’s first time facing the Cubs, while Lackey has faced the Brewers twice this season, including just a couple of weeks ago when he went seven innings and gave up two earned and struck out nine–in a loss. The now-injured Jimmy Nelson started that game and shut out Chicago in Milwaukee’s 2-0 win.
Saturday will see Kyle Hendricks (7-5, 3.22) take on Brent Suter (3-2, 3.41). Hendricks has faced the Brewers three times this season and is 1-1 with a no-decision to go along with 17 innings pitched and seven runs allowed. Suter, a 28-year-old rookie, was hit around in a relief appearance against the Cubs early this season, surrendering four runs in his inning of work, but in a start at home against them at the end of July, Suter went seven shutout frames and allowed just four hits. While he is only 1-0 this month, he holds a 1.50 ERA in three starts.
In those three starts, Suter has lasted three, three and five innings, so look for the bullpen to be utilized if given the chance.
In Sunday’s finale, Chase Anderson (11-3, 2.74) will take on the Cubs’ big deadline acquisition in Jose Quintana (10-11, 4.27). Quintana’s third start in a Cub uniform came in Milwaukee where he gave up just two earned across six frames, but he ultimately got the loss. That was the start that Suter shut down Chicago.
Chase Anderson has missed some time this season, but he has made four starts this month with the most pertinent being in that series two weeks ago where he held the Cubs to one hit over five scoreless innings.
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While the Cubs don’t necessarily need to have a big weekend in order to stay in the playoff hunt, getting swept by the Brewers for the second time this month would certainly put a lot more pressure on them the rest of the way. After their trip to Milwaukee, the Cubs head to St. Louis and finish up the regular season in Cincinnati. The Brewers will stay at home for three against the Reds and then travel to St. Louis for three to wrap up their regular season in what could be a huge final series depending on how things shake out this weekend in Milwaukee.
If the two teams split, Milwaukee’s focus will likely shift more to the Wild Card hunt, but if they can win three of four, that leaves them with a manageable deficit heading into the final week of the season. Regardless, wins will be of the utmost importance from here on out.