Minor League Baseball League Top 10 Prospects: Southern League

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With the minor league baseball season over, it’s list season, and we’ll continue the league top 10 lists with the Southern League

Minor league baseball has concluded its regular season and playoffs at this point in the most part, so we will be starting our series of league top 10 prospects here at Call To The Pen. This series will be keyed by Benjamin Chase through extensive video research and discussion with scouts and those within the game. Certainly, there are other opinions on these players and the order, but this is his list. Each list will start with a review of the season for that league and some of the leaders in each league. One note: to be eligible to be on this list, a player must have qualified for the league stat leaders (2.7 PA/league G for hitters, 0.8 IP/league game for pitchers) in order to be considered.

Season Wrap

The Southern League is one of the most geographically diverse leagues on the eastern half of the country, with teams in Tennessee to Gulf Coast states. With the force of Hurricane Irma bearing down on the Florida-based teams, two of which were in the playoffs, the Southern League chose to finish their championship with co-champions. Pensacola opened the season with a rotation that mostly ended up in Cincinnati pitching for the major league club, and they were tough to beat in the first half, but seemingly limped to the finish. A strong showing from two of their starters helped to propel them to one side of the championship. On the other side, the Chattanooga Lookouts were the best regular season in the Southern League by 15 games, winning 91 on the regular season. They ended up squaring off with the team who finished second in total record behind them from Montgomery, and the result was a well-played 5-game series, won on a walk-off 2-run home run by Chattanooga for their half of the title.

Some of the league leaders:
AVG – Braxton Lee, Jacksonville, .309
OBP – Jonathan Rodriguez, Chattanooga, .414
SLG – Jonathan Rodriguez, Chattanooga, .525
HR – Kevin Cron, Jackson, 25
SB – Johnny Davis, Biloxi, 52

W – Three with 13
SV – Matt Ramsey, Biloxi, 27
K – Deck McGuire, Pensacola, 170
ERA – Grayson Long, Mobile, 2.52
WHIP – Aaron Wilkerson, Biloxi, 1.07

Now to the top 10…

10. Joe McCarthy, 1B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

A polished college hitter out of Virginia, McCarthy was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 5th round of the 2015 draft, McCarthy was a guy who was tagged with a “contact before power” tag and dropped in the draft due to that, in spite of an excellent eye and quality bat-to-ball skills.

While athletic enough to handle the outfield, his arm does not profile well anywhere but left, and even there, it’s a below average arm, leaving 1B as a probable defensive destination for McCarthy, but where he plays on the field has taken a back seat to what he can do in the batter’s box since coming into the Rays system.

In his first full season in 2016, McCarthy played through both A-ball levels, totaling a .285/.399/.429/.828 line with 20 doubles, 3 triples, 8 home runs, and 19 stolen bases. He also showed his excellent batting eye with a 61/68 BB/K ratio over 426 plate appearances.

His hitting took another step forward in 2017 in spite of advancing to an advanced league, as he hit .284/.409/.434/.843 for Montgomery on the season. He had 31 doubles, 8 triples, 7 home runs, and 20 stolen bases while putting up a 90/94 BB/K over 553 plate appearances.

McCarthy works with a smooth, but compact, swing that makes contact work well for him, but he doesn’t always maximize his stout 6’3″ 225-pound frame the way he could in generating power. He certainly can rocket a ball to the gaps, and if he would work for loft in his swing, he could definitely project out to 20+ home runs, but he may sacrifice some of that contact ability and control of the strike zone in making those swing alterations.

McCarthy will head up to Durham in 2018, and his bat could keep pushing him forward to a spot with the big league club sooner rather than later.

9. Grayson Long, RHP, Los Angeles Angels/Detroit Tigers

A big, sturdy righty at 6’5″, 230 pounds coming out of Texas A&M, Long was seen as a 4th starter type that could eat innings at the back of a rotation, but that would likely maximize his ceiling.

Long’s profile works with that 4th starter projection as well, as he has a maintenance-free delivery that pops out a fastball in the low-90s that works well in the zone, touching 95 at its best. He has a slider/cutter hybrid pitch that gets good weak contact, and his change also works well low in the zone with some sink to generate weak contact.

Then he opened the season with high-A Inland Empire before quickly moving to Mobile. He filled up the zone as he always had, but Long’s command took a big step forward in 2017, and while his walk rate wasn’t significantly changed, his difficult to square up certainly was, and hitters had a tough time hitting him well.

Long posted a 2.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with Mobile over 23 starts and 121 2/3 IP, finishing with a 38/111 BB/K ratio. He was traded as part of the Justin Upton deal in August and made just one rough start for the Tigers’ AA club in Erie, but showed plenty this season to think he could settle in to more of a #3 or even a #2 role in a rotation long-term rather than be relegated to back-end duty.

8. LaMonte Wade, OF, Minnesota Twins

Wade is another guy who went significantly under the radar in the draft because his skills really didn’t bring out “flash”. However, he’s really the version of McCarthy of Montgomery but with defensive skill in the outfield.

Wade was a 9th round selection out of Maryland in 2015 by the Twins, and he signed for more than a typical senior sign, so the Twins knew they were getting more than just a filler player. He opened with Elizabethton, but after putting up a 46/34 BB/K over 231 at bats in the Appy League, he finished with low-A Cedar Rapids.

Wade played across both A-ball levels in 2016, not hitting for a ton of power, but showing elite zone and pitch recognition as well as quality contact skills. He combined for a .293/.402/.438/.841 line with 14 doubles, 4 triples, 8 home runs, and 6 stolen bases in 388 plate appearances while posting a 54/44 BB/K.

Bumped up to AA this season, Wade perhaps didn’t flash the power or speed development that some were hoping, but he was still elite in his zone recognition and finished with a .292/.397/.408/.805 line for Chattanooga while playing all three outfield spots.

Wade looks the part of an athlete, and he handles center field well, though his overall skills would likely best be suited for left as his arm is average to a slight tick above-average. He does show very good range and instincts regardless of where he plays in the outfield.

While he hasn’t tallied a high stolen base total in his minor league career, Wade is an exceptional base runner, and his stolen bases actually hint some at that as he’s been around an 80% success rate throughout his minor league career, in spite of not exactly stealing often. However, Wade does have plus speed that he can use very well on the bases and does take an extra base very well once on base.

While not a guy who profiles as a superstar, Wade has the profile of a player who should find his way into a starting lineup and near the top of the order for a number of years, and that’s still plenty valuable.

7. Justin Williams, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

If you want to go from polished to raw at time of entry to minor league baseball, Wade to Williams would be an excellent comparison. An exceptional raw talent in the 2013 draft that the Diamondbacks took in the 2nd round based on his potential double-plus raw power along with the athleticism to possibly profile in center at draft time.

Williams was acquired by the Rays when they traded Jeremy Hellickson to Arizone, and as he’s filled out, he’s lost some of that defensive ability, but the raw skill is still there, and he’s really taken a leap forward the last two seasons after some notable swing adjustments allowed him to cover the zone more fully and access his power more freely.

Just 22 at the end of August, Williams did take some significant time in rookie to low-A ball in his development, but whatever it was that has turned on for Williams has been significant. He missed time this season due to injury, but he put up impressive numbers, going .301/.364/.489 over 366 at bats with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 14 home runs, and 6 stolen bases.

Williams is likely best served in left field as his arm is barely above-average and his range is more average-ish as well, but he does have excellent first step instincts, both in the field and on the bases, which is one reason he was able to steal the 6 bases that he did in the time that I watched him, as his in-motion speed is not elite, but his first few steps are tremendous.

Williams needs a full season of health under his belt in the upper minors, but it wouldn’t surprise to see him in Durham’s outfield in 2018 and pushing for a late-season look.

6. Fernando Romero, RHP, Minnesota Twins

A year ago, Romero was coming off of Tommy John surgery and put up one of the more remarkable walk rates for a TJS survivor that most had ever seen, leading many to wonder if Romero may, in fact, surpass his Chattanooga teammates Gonsalves and Gordon to become the #1 Twins prospect.

His innings were managed this season, and as he got to the end of that limit, it was obvious that he was tired. Still, he finished the season with a 11-9 record over 24 games, 23 of them starts, throwing 125 innings, with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He also posted a 45/120 BB/K ratio. He had maintained a strikeout rate well over 1 per inning until his final four starts, where he struck out just 8 over 19 1/3 innings.

Romero was handled very carefully by the Twins this season, never throwing more than 5 innings after the first of July and keeping his pitch count low, never exceeding 100 pitches on the season (his high being exactly 100 on 6/25 vs. Pensacola).

Romero works with a dominant mix of pitches, featuring a blazing fastball that can bump against triple digits, but routinely sits in the 94-96 range deep into games. His best secondary offering is a wipeout slider that comes in around 90, leaving hitters purely baffled, especially from Romero’s 6′ frame.

Romero is still working on his change, but it is quite good now, and with more polish, he could have the makings of a plus change, giving him three plus pitches to work with. Romero did lose nearly all of 2014 and 2015 in his development, so he will enter 2018 as a 23 year-old pitcher and on the 40-man roster. Most likely the Twins will have him open in Rochester, barring an exceptional spring, and Romero will continue to build up the stamina to go with his stuff and reach his feasible frontline ceiling.

5. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Minnesota Twins

For some unknown reason, Gonsalves gets a reputation as a soft-tosser in many circles, though that couldn’t be farther from the truth. While he doesn’t run up a fastball that eclipses triple digits, he can reach mid-90s pretty consistently, sitting in the 91-94 range in most of the games I viewed on him this season.

Gonsalves got a late start to the season, and he just barely crept in with the minimum innings threshold, but there’s no ignoring the work he did for Chattanooga while he was there. On the season, Gonsalves went 8-3 for the Lookouts with a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 87 1/3 innings, finishing with a 23/96 BB/K ratio.

Drafted in the 4th round out of high school in San Diego, the Twins have moved Gonsalves up step by step through the system, and he’s been showing well at every level. He works from a low 3/4 arm slot, which gives righty hitters fits, and his change from that slot is near impossible for right-handed bats to deal with.

Gonsalves worked with his curve over the offseason to sharpen it up, but he was obviously working with other secondary pitches this season, featuring a slider/cutter hybrid on a number of views that was hard on lefty hitters.

His long, lanky 6’5″ frame, easy delivery, and excellent pitch mix gives Gonsalves a fairly high floor as a back end starter, but if he can see even a touch more grown on the secondary stuff to go with his plus change and plus fastball, he has the opportunity to be a #2/#3 guy for the Twins for years to come.

4. Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves

When teams got scared off of Allard due to back concerns in 2015 coming into the draft, the Braves were overjoyed to have him fall into their laps. Allard has risen quickly through their system to become one of the elite lefty prospects in the game.

The Braves were aggressive with Allard and his 2016 Rome teammate Soroka, opening both at AA as teenagers. Expecting some growth issues as they worked against hitters 2-4 years their senior, neither faltered.

While his 8-11, 3.16 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 45/129 BB/K over 150 innings is nothing to ignore for a pitcher just barely 20 years old, Allard did show a bit more susceptibility to the long ball and found himself perhaps not quite as dominant as his raw stuff would suggest.

In watching games, you really cannot complain about a guy who has a fastball that sits 91-94, touching 96-97, with a tremendous curve, and a change that has come a long way in the last 18 months. However, I noted that at times Allard was perhaps more control than command with his pitches, and while he wasn’t walking batters, he seemingly wasn’t letting his stuff use its natural movement to generate swing and miss, either.

Now, this is nit-picking, and really, all of the top 4 on this list should end up top 50 prospects in the entire game, but to separate them needs to have a distinction, and right now, for me, that’s Allard’s willingness to let go and let the pitches do the work, even if that means they trail out of the zone sometimes.

He should open 2017 in Gwinnett, and it will be interesting the path that the Braves put him on as far as how quickly he gets brought to the majors.

3. Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves

When someone asks about my opinion on pitcher velocity and why I encourage less all-out effort, it’s because pitchers like Soroka exist in this world.

Soroka is a guy who has a very impressive arsenal of his own, with a fastball that can touch 95, but he usually works more around 90 with exceptional movement on the pitch and hard sink. He has a hard curve/slider blend that has tight rotation and makes hitters look silly. His change has some Bugs Bunny to it as he can provide exceptional arm deception.

None of that is what makes Soroka great on the mound, however. Soroka is one of the most cerebral pitchers you’ll ever witness on the mound, quite literally adjusting within the at bat to how a hitter is working and changing his grip or velocity on a pitch to get a hitter to swing through or make weak contact.

Soroka made the jump with Allard to AA as a teenager this season, and his numbers were a hair better with a 2.75 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 34/125 BB/K over 153 2/3 innings, but it was absolutely his mound presence that impressed me to no end. I could honestly go with Soroka #1 and not feel bat about it at all in this league because I really see his future as a quality #2/#3 pitcher in a rotation for a long time. I’ve put Soroka here because his ceiling is a hair lower than the two in front of him, but that’s by the slimmest of margins.

2. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins

This season has taken Gordon from a guy who had many questions yet to answer to a guy who really isn’t going to flash elite in any one skill, but yet will end up jumping up a ton of prospect lists. That can be confusing to the average fan.

Gordon’s father had an explosive fastball and his brother has elite speed, so many assumed Gordon would have a standout tool somewhere in his toolbox. Instead, Gordon has continued to show that while he’s not a guy with any elite tool, he knows how to use all of what he has in a way that makes him an elite player.

Gordon hit .270/.341/.408 over 519 at bats in 2017 with 29 doubles, 8 triples, 9 home runs, and 13 stolen bases. None of those numbers will blow anyone away, but it’s the solid production across the board that continues to impress as Gordon was 21 for the entire season.

The biggest question for Gordon has always been what he would be defensively – whether he would stick at short, move to second, or end up in center field. Of course, center field for the Twins is occupied by arguably the best defender in the league, so that wasn’t happening, but the 2B/SS question was still out there coming into the season.

Gordon showed himself very well at shortstop this season after showing himself very well at second base this spring. He’s spoken to the experience, and he’s said that his experience at second base allowed him to become a much better shortstop by trusting his instincts and understanding positioning so much better.

How Gordon will fit with Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco at the big league level up the middle is questionable for 2018, but he could spend the season in Rochester and take over one of the positions when Dozier leaves after that season.

1. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox

Coming into the season, there were nearly as many questions about the Texan right-hander as there were answers. Kopech has always been known for his blazing fastball, able to top 100 MPH with frequency.

Kopech has come through a pair of on-field issues (suspension for banned stimulant, broken hand due to fight with a teammate) to show himself as an elite power pitcher in 2016 before the White Sox acquired him in the Chris Sale deal with the Red Sox.

Kopech saw all of his stuff work much better as the season wore on and he worked with White Sox pitching development, as his walk rate went down throughout the season, and the polish on each of his pitches improved as well to the point where he enters the offseason as very feasibly the top pitching prospect in the entire game.

Kopech’s fastball sits 94-98, routinely crossing the triple digit line as he reaches back for extra. His slider is his best secondary pitch, a low-90s beast of a pitch that is where Kopech picked up most of his command this season. Locating that pitch has made it an incredible weapon as it has great hard break with the elite velocity. His change took major steps as well, though the pitch is still roughly average.

Kopech has shown himself to be an excellent worker and willing to learn, something that belies the reputation he’s received with his previous incidents. On the season, he went 8-7 for Birmingham in 22 starts, throwing 119 1/3 innings, allowing a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a 60/155 BB/K before making 3 pitches at AAA to close the season.

Kopech will open the season at AAA Charlotte in 2018, but it will not surprise if he pushes his way to the majors by the end of the year.

Next: 2017 Minor League Awards team

Some of the top prospects who didn’t make the minimum time in the league this season included Ronald Acuna, Nick Senzel, Brian Anderson, Max Fried, Tyler Mahle, Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Luiz Gohara, and Touki Toussaint. All of those players would have merited consideration for this list, but none had the requisite time for the list.

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