American League playoff race: What each team needs to clinch

The New York Yankees

With a deficit of just three games behind the AL East-leading Red Sox, the Yankees still own a reasonable shot at winning the division and control their own American League playoff race destiny. Their schedule favors them with six more match-ups against the Toronto Blue Jays and three with the Tampa Bay Rays. Add in a makeup date with the Royals, and you have 10 games against sub-.500 teams to close out the season.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox play their last four against the AL West Champion Astros. Boston will face the Cincinnati Reds and the Blue Jays in their other seven, but those three against Houston could prove critical if they can’t wrap up the East by Thursday. As they contend with a team still fighting for home field advantage, New York could conceivably feast against the Rays.

As for the AL Wild Card, it would take a catastrophic collapse from the Yankees to lose what they have. New York leads the Twins, the second wild card team, by six and a half games and they lead the Angels and Rangers by nine.

The breakdown

If the Yankees wish to win the AL East division, it will take some work. However, the goal is certainly attainable. Check out this estimate.

Let’s stay relatively conservative and estimate a finish by New York of 7-3. In order to win the East, they’ll need Boston to finish 3-7 or worse. This requires help from the Reds and Blue Jays, who each occupy last place in their division. The Blue Jays do still have a very razor-thin slim shot at the wild card, but they’d need absolute chaos in order to get it. (More about that later)

As far as simply winning a playoff spot, the Yankees don’t need much at all. They can clinch a playoff spot with a 2-8 finish to the season, or with the Rangers and Angels each losing twice. New York also needs the Royals to lose just once to assure they’ll never catch them.

All of this to say, the Yankees will likely pop some champagne this weekend. Granted, they haven’t historically thrown big parties over simply making the playoffs. So the thought of them popping champagne is more figurative than literal. The Yankees sit in great shape and will play beyond October 2 this year.

The Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has flip-flopped back-and-forth a few times with the Angels over the number two AL Wild Card spot. Their performance is a big reason the 2017 American League playoff race has stayed competitive all season.

They have absolutely no shot at winning the AL Central, which the Indians clinched on September 16. But, they are clinging to a two and a half game lead over the Angels and Rangers. Unlike the other contenders, Minnesota still has one more day off on Monday within the season’s final 10 days. Therefore, they have just nine games left. This can be both good and bad, but we’ll get to that later.

The Twins finish the year with six games against the Detroit Tigers and three against Cleveland. Playing the Tigers six times has to sound awesome for Twins fans, but playing the Indians three times likely does not. Playing them at Progressive Field sounds even worse.

There’s no arguing against the Indians’ status as the hottest team in baseball right now. Having lost just once in the last 28 games and with that top AL seed still on the line, Cleveland will come at the Twins with everything they have. So, Minnesota will need some help to get in.

The breakdown

To take the number one wild card spot outright, many things will need to happen. It’s not impossible, but it’s about as close as you can get. If they finish 8-1 to close out the season, they’ll need the Yankees to finish 1-9. Obviously, if the Twins go 7-2, then that means they need New York to end by losing all 10. So, let’s not focus on that so much.

So, like we did with the Yankees, let’s again use a conservative finish estimate for Minnesota. If they end the year by going just 6-3, they only need the Rangers and Angels to each finish 8-2 or worse. This allows for the scenario of a sweep at the hands of Cleveland but taking care of business against the Tigers.

Likewise, a finish of just 5-4 would still require a finish of 7-3 or better from each the Angels and Rangers to eliminate the Twins. That’s why Minnesota still controls their own fate but will need a little bit of help finishing things out.

The Los Angeles Angels

The Angels might require a little divine intervention if they want to take the second Wild Card slot. Like their AL West counterpart Rangers, they have a bit of control on their own side. But with a deficit of still two and a half games, simply winning out may not be good enough.

To close the year, the Angels play seven games on the road, split between the Astros (three) and the Chicago White Sox (four). They then finish with a three game set at home against the Seattle Mariners, whose playoff hopes are currently clinging to life support.

Those three against Houston loom the greatest, though. They’re still battling for a top seed in the American League and will simply go quietly into the night. But if the Angels want to have any hope, they’ll really need to take at least one of those three from the Astros to stay relevant.

The breakdown

Simply passing Minnesota might not get the job done. Since they share an identical record with Texas, they also need the Rangers kept at bay in the final 10 days. So, this means there are a few scenarios to consider.

If we estimate a reasonable 7-3 finish for Los Angeles, they’ll need a 3-6 or worse finish from the Twins. At the same time, they’ll need the Rangers to finish 6-4 or worse.  Finishing worse than 7-3 would make life even more difficult for the Angels. That would mean they need a finish of 2-7 or worse from the Twins and a 5-5 or worse finish from Texas. All this to say, there is still moderate hope for the Angels.

The Texas Rangers

Like Los Angeles, the Rangers also have a two and a half game deficit. Also like the Angels, they have three of their final 10 games against the first place Astros. The biggest difference is, those three will take place at Globe Life Park instead of Minute Maid Park.

Aside from the trio of games with Houston, Texas also faces Oakland a total of seven times. The final four will be at home, which bodes well for the Rangers.

Yes, Oakland is the last place team in the AL West, but this same team was out of contention in August when they swept a three game set against the Rangers. In other words, don’t let their record fool you; Oakland will put up a fierce fight against Texas. Just look at their 6-6 head-to-head record this season against each other.

The breakdown

It’s all pretty similar between Texas and Los Angeles. The Rangers also have to do more than simply pass the Twins. They have to hold off the Angels while gaining ground. Honestly, it’s the beauty of the wild card race, which will take place between teams that don’t face each other.

If Texas finishes 7-3, then they’ll (like L.A.) need the Twins to go 3-6 or worse while the Angels go no better than 6-4. Of course, if both Texas and L.A. finish 7-3 and Minnesota goes exactly 4-5, then we’d be looking at a three way tie for the second AL Wild Card. That could be a lot of fun.

The Kansas City Royals

The situation for the Royals doesn’t look too much different than either the Angels or Rangers. However, they trail both Los Angeles and Texas by a game and their schedule doesn’t do them any favors, either.

In their remaining 10 games, they’ll play the Tigers and White Sox three times each. That actually sounds like a pretty decent schedule, however that still leaves four games. It’s those other four games that will likely separate the Royals from the rest of the contenders.

As mentioned with the Yankees, there’s a single makeup game on Monday, September 25 between the Royals and Yankees. New York will likely still have a shot at the AL East crown at that time and will play to win. That’s just one game, though. Fast forward to the final set and you’ll see that the Arizona Diamondbacks will come to Kaufmann Stadium.

It’s highly likely the Diamondbacks will have the number one NL Wild Card spot locked down by then, but they won’t want to finish the season cold, either. This makes things very iffy for K.C.

The breakdown

If the Royals finish the season 7-3, then they will need a lot of help. They’ll need the Rangers and Angels both to finish no better than 5-5 and they’ll need the Twins to go 2-7. Or, they can hope for things to get really wild and finish 7-3 with Los Angeles and Texas each going 6-4 while the Twins go 3-6. That would lead to an unbelievable four way tie for the final wild card spot.

The Mariners, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays and Athletics

Believe it or not, five other teams still have a mathematical shot at winning that final AL Wild Card spot. That means the American League playoff race consists of 10 teams fighting for the final two playoff spots.

In the case of Seattle, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Toronto and Oakland though, there are just so many teams in front that their scenarios get really messy.

For instance, if the Mariners go 9-0 against the Indians, Athletics and Angels, they’ll need Minnesota to go no better than 2-7, both L.A. and Texas to each finish no better than 6-4, Kansas City to finish no better than 7-3 and Tampa Bay to go no better than 9-1. The same scenario exists for the Rays if you flip-flop them with Seattle.

Baltimore has eight games left with two versus the Pittsburgh Pirates and six against the Tampa Bay Rays. An 8-0 finish would require the Twins to finish no better than 2-7 with the Angels and Rangers each going 5-5 or worse, the Royals going no better than 6-4 and both the Mariners and Rays finishing 7-2 or worse.

Looking at the Blue Jays, they cling to very slim hopes. If they run the table to finish 9-0, they will have to see Minnesota go 1-8 or worse, L.A. and Texas each to go 3-7 or worse, Kansas City at 5-5 or worse, the Mariners and Rays go 5-4 or worse and the Orioles to finish no better than 5-3.

Finally, we have Oakland. They have the biggest list of needs among all contending teams. Literally needing a baseball armageddon, they have no margin for error left. If they go 10-0, they’ll need the Twins to go 0-9, the Angels and Rangers to both go 2-8 or worse, the Royals to finish 3-7 or worse, the Mariners and Rays to each finish 4-5 or worse, the Orioles to finish 4-4 or worse and the Blue Jays to end the season no better than 7-2. Even then, it would just set up a tie between the A’s and Twins.

Next: How to cheer if your team is out of it

So what does this all mean? It means anyone that doesn’t have a dog in this hunt should cheer for an absolute meltdown, which looks like this: Minnesota finishing 0-9, L.A. and Texas going 3-7, Kansas City going 4-6, Seattle and Tampa Bay each going 5-4, Baltimore going 5-3, Toronto going 8-1 and Oakland finishing 10-0. That would create an insanely wild nine way tie for the final AL wild card slot. Now that would be a heck of a finish.