Minor League Baseball League Top 10 Prospects: Carolina League

10. Josh Ockimey, 1B, Boston Red Sox

Originally drafted in the 5th round of the 2014 draft, Ockimey had two rough seasons to open his minor league career. He made some changes in fall instructionals in 2015 and exploded in 2016, finally tapping into his enormous left-handed power.

Ockimey has an impressive amount of power in his swing, though he does have some significant load to his swing and struggles some with pitch recognition, though he’s tremendously improved his zone recognition. That is what has led to seeing Ockimey develop his walk rate to the point of walking nearly 100 times this season.

On the 2017 season, Ockimey played most of his season with Salem before a promotion for the last month of the season with AA Portland. With Salem, he hit .275/.388/.438 with 20 doubles, 2 triples, 11 home runs, and a 66/110 BB/K ratio over 349 at bats.

Ockimey is not going to play anywhere but first base defensively, but he’s really taken his contact skills to the level of being a quality power threat from the left side with an adjustment in his set up that has allowed him to hit anything within the strike zone and really working hard to become very skilled in strike zone recognition.

Ockimey will likely open 2018 with Portland, but he is a guy to follow as his impressive power could push him forward quickly in the organization.

9. Luis La O, 3B, Texas Rangers

Somehow flying under the radar this offseason was the Rangers’ signing of La O, a talented Cuban infielder with solid contact skills that left Cuba at age 22.

He missed two seasons of play, so the Rangers opened La O at Down East, and he hit .290/.334/.397 in his first exposure to minor league pitching. He showed an extremely quick bat through the zone and impressive ability to put bat to ball.

La O is limited by an average-at-best power tool and, while he has plus speed, he struggles with reading pitchers when attempting to steal a base, as evidenced by 11 steals in 21 attempts. However, his contact skills are impressive, and he can place the ball well into gaps and use his speed to generate doubles “power”.

Defensively, La O has been moved around the diamond quite a bit in Cuba, and he’s shown things to like at third, short, and second base. He’s got the arm to handle third and has excellent reactions, which would allow him to eventually play a plus third base. He would likely be an above-average second baseman as well once he worked on his footwork around the bag.

Many thought when he first defected that La O would be able to move quickly to the upper minors and likely be major league ready quickly. By the time MLB cleared him, he will end up spending more time in minor league baseball, likely splitting 2018 between AA and AAA and hitting the major leagues in 2019 once his ultimate position is figured out, however his high-contact skills were evident immediately and should only improve.

8. Trent Clark, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

An elite raw talent when he was drafted 15th overall out of Texas high school, Clark has certainly flashed that talent, but he’s not yet put together the ability to make consistent contact, though he did really step up his strike zone recognition with Carolina this year, leading many to believe that there’s another step coming.

Clark’s .224/.361/.349 line may not impress, but with 21 doubles, 6 triples, 8 home runs, and 37 stolen bases, Clark flashed a blend of power and speed at 20 years old that certainly turned plenty of heads.

While having the raw power start to break through into production is impressive, seeing Clark show off his incredible plus to plus-plus speed on the basepaths along with certain plus defense and a plus arm in the outfield was a huge thing for the Brewers. On the bases, Clark shows excellent instincts, whether it’s running first to third on a single or stealing a base. On the season, he stole 37 bases in 42 attempts for an 88% success rate.

Clark has an unusual grip to his bat, and I’ve always felt that it leads to some instability in his bat path, but when he does make contact, it’s certainly loud contact. Clark played with top draft pick Ray, so he did shuffle around the outfield, though he has definite instincts to be able to be a center fielder.

With the impressive 17% walk rate in 2017 and keeping his strikeout rate below 25%, Clark has shown the zone judgement needed to make improvements with his contact skills eventually, though it may require some swing overhaul for Clark. Being young and with some excellent depth in the outfield ahead of him in the Brewers system, the team may take their time working to get his quick bat more consistent to the ball.

Clark likely will work at AA in 2018, likely for the full season.

7. Isan Diaz, IF, Milwaukee Brewers

Originally born in Puerto Rico, the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Diaz out of high school in Massachusetts in the collective round B in the 2014 draft. When the Brewers traded Jean Segura to the Diamondbacks in the 2015-2016, they made Diaz a significant target of their return in that trade.

Diaz has significant explosive movement in his 5’10” frame, filled out to roughly 200 pounds at this point. He has excellent first step quickness and impressive power due to that quick-twitch explosion present in his body.

Diaz has filled out to the point where he is likely a second baseman long-term, though he still played roughly a 70/30 split of second base to shortstop with Carolina this season.

This season was one of ups and downs for Diaz, with a solid opening to the season before a prolonged slump. Just when he began to come out of the slump with his play in July, Diaz broke his hamate bone and was out for the season. He finished with an overall line of .222/.334/.376, but did have 20 doubles, 13 home runs, and 9 stolen bases with a 13.6% walk rate and 26.6% strikeout rate.

After the injury and the struggles on the season, Diaz may repeat Carolina to open 2018, but he’ll likely work his way to AA, and I would estimate fairly quickly. The ceiling is still very high for Diaz.

6. Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox

Considered a hit-before-defense catcher when he was taken 10th overall by the White Sox in the 2016 draft out of the University of Miami, Collins has struggled to show that hitting, though he’s received high marks on his defensive work.

Playing 87 of the 113 games he played this season behind the plate, Collins caught 40% of base stealers in 2017, though he did have 16 passed balls on the season and 11 errors. At 6’3″ and 220 pounds, Collins is a fairly big catcher, so he will always need to work hard to ensure he’s able to move laterally with his pitchers.

To Collins’ credit, he did have some difficult pitchers to catch in the Winston-Salem rotation, but his biggest weakness behind the plate is still getting lateral movement to get in front of a ball and prevent the ball from getting by him. Still, the high marks he’s received are encouraging.

Collins played nearly the entire season with Winston-Salem, hitting .223/.365/.443 with 18 doubles, 3 triples, and 17 home runs in 426 plate appearances. He did show good patience, with a 17.8% walk rate and a 27.7% strikeout rate.

While the defensive marks have been impressive, and his zone judgement has been good, Collins’ bat has shown to have much more load to the zone, especially with premium velocity on fastballs or hard breaking stuff, and that’s led to much more difficulty handling premium pitching, which is a worry as he works his way up the system.

For now, the improvements in his defense bear well for Collins in his likely destination of AA for 2018.

5. Dane Dunning, RHP, Chicago White Sox

Part of one of the most impressive college pitching staffs in recent memory with Florida in 2016, Dunning was one of a collection of pitchers selected from that staff in the 2016 draft when the Nationals selected him with the 29th overall pick.

Dunning has the physical build that would preclude a durable starter, and his stuff often was overlooked on a staff that had Logan Shore and A.J. Puk, along with underclassman Alex Faedo. Dunning did work as a midweek starter for the Gators, but he was a reliever when tournament time came.

After a strong pro debut where he showed a quality three-pitch mix that should allow him to start, Dunning was traded by the Nationals as part of the Adam Eaton deal. The White Sox assigned Dunning to low-A Kannapolis to open 2017, but he only made 4 starts there before he was bumped up to high-A Winston Salem, where he spent the rest of the season.

Dunning went 6-8 for Winston-Salem over 22 starts and 118 innings, with a 3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a 36/135 BB/K ratio. If you combine his dominant 4 starts for Kannapolis, his season line was 8-8 over 26 starts, throwing 144 innings, with a 2.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a 38/168 BB/K ratio.

Dunning works with a fastball that works up to 95 with excellent movement low in the zone. Dunning gained more consistency with his slider over the season, especially with location, though the break of the pitch still is inconsistent. His change is a fringe-plus pitch with excellent late movement. His excellent command allowed the late movement on all three pitches to get plenty of swing and miss this season.

Dunning is still not a guy to project as a frontline starter, but he’s significantly raised his floor as a starter, with a more realistic option of a mid-rotation starter and the type of stuff that his command could play up to a 2/3 type of pitcher. He’ll open 2018 in the upper minors.

4. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Considered by many as the top talent in the 2016 draft, Ray went to the Brewers at the #5 overall selection. After a career at Louisville, Ray showed power and speed (15 HR, 44 SB in his draft season) along with the skills that led many to believe he could stick in center field.

Ray has struggled with injury since he was drafted, both in his draft year, and in this season, his first full season, which he spent entirely with Carolina, hitting .241/.313/.372 with 30 doubles, 4 triples, 7 home runs, and 24 stolen bases in 112 games.

Ray certainly looks the part of an athlete. He’s built well, flashes plus speed, and he can cover many mistakes defensively with that speed in the outfield.

In watching Ray this season, his ceiling may be changing as far as the player he could be as I see his power playing a bigger part of his future, though he sold out for it in his swing this year without much for home run totals to show for it and a ton of strikeouts (31%) as well.

Ray has the raw athleticism to easily be #1 on this list, but his performance so far is really more like the 9th guy on this list, so call this placing a hedge for now. Ray will likely spend the season in AA for Milwaukee in 2018.

3. Lucas Erceg, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers

Erceg was a guy that many teams were looking at strongly after a big sophomore season at Cal, but academic issues caused him to end up at Menlo, an NAIA school, where Erceg hit .400 against lower-level competition. Questions about the reasoning behind those academic issues led to a number of teams backing off of Erceg in spite of his obvious offensive and defensive skills.

The Brewers thought he was a steal in the 2nd round, and had that opinion enforced by his performance after signing, as he played with their Pioneer League and low-A Midwest League teams, hitting .327/.376/.518 in 68 games with 9 home runs and 9 stolen bases.

Erceg has a quick, powerful swing from the left hand side. He also has above-average speed along with natural athleticism. Defensively, he’s a definite plus defender with a tremendous arm that’s accurate whether moving in on a ball or side to side.

Erceg was part of the Carolina offensive struggles this year initially, but he finished strong on the season, even being brought up to AAA Colorado Springs to finish the season out as they made a run at the playoffs. Erceg finished the year with Carolina with a .256/.307/.417 line with 33 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs, and a pair of stolen bases.

Defensively, Erceg was all he was cracked up to be and more, with an incredibly impressive arm at the hot corner and very good instincts as well.

Erceg will open at AA in 2018, and he is one of the premier 3B prospects left in the minor leagues.

2. Ryan Mountcastle, IF, Baltimore Orioles

Since being drafted by the Orioles 36th overall in the 2015 draft, Mountcastle has done two things – hit and surprise those who thought he couldn’t stick at short.

This season, he took that to another level, hitting .314/.343/.542 with Frederick with 35 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs, and 8 stolen bases. The questions on Mountcastle’s future position all require him to have high level of power in order to make it work. He moved up to AA Bowie for 39 games at the end of the season, and while he was able to put up solid power numbers, the improved plate discipline he showed at Frederick seemed to abandon him.

While he won’t ever be a guy to draw 100 walks, Mountcastle showed the ability to work for his pitch in each at bat rather than leaping at the first thing he could handle. That allowed him to access his natural power much better.

At the plate, Mountcastle reminds me quite a bit of former Rangers (among other teams) slugger Juan Gonzalez. He has an explosive sound off of his bat with the ability to keep a quality batting average at the same time.

From my viewing, the arm is too little for Mountcastle to stick at third, but he could work in left field quite well. He should spend most of the season in AA in 2018.

1. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Almost freakishly thin at 6’5″ and roughly 170-175 pounds, McKenzie has actually gained roughly 10 pounds since he was drafted as a compensatory first round selection in 2015 out of high school in Florida. What has never needed “adding” is his raw stuff. From the point that he struck out 17 while walking 3 over 12 innings with a 0.75 ERA as a 17 year old for most of the season with the Arizona Rookie League in his draft season, McKenzie has been one of the elite arms in the game.

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McKenzie will likely never fill out a ton, with a narrow frame, but he has done well to add positive build to his frame. He has seen his velocity hold deep into games with added strength, ramping up to 96 top end, but working in the 92-94 range with impressive movement and plane.

McKenzie has an incredible curve that gets plenty of swing and miss, and he saw his change take a step forward this season, though it still has plenty of work to go, and it has a habit of “floating”, which led to 14 home runs allowed on the season from a guy who gets incredible plane on his pitches typically.

The thing that impresses one most when watching McKenzie is his composure and adaption on the mound. He really has a feeling of the opposition as a game rolls on, attacking each hitter with something just a little different, whether it’s a different pitch sequence, taking off just a hair of velocity, or simply using his excellent command to put the ball in a spot the batter hadn’t even considered.

McKenzie finished second in all of the minor leagues in strikeouts on the season, and he’s going to end up among the top 5 pitching prospects in the entire game when prospect lists are put together this offseason. He should spend the majority of 2018 at AA as a 20 year old.

Next: 2017 Minor League Awards team

Some of the top prospects who didn’t make the minimum time in the league this season included Michael Chavis, Austin Hays, Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Tucker, Victor Robles, Yordan Alvarez, Corbin Burns, Franklin Perez, and Forrest Whitley. All of those players would have merited consideration for this list, but none had the requisite time for the list.