MLB: The 10 worst free agent signings before this season

Of all the MLB free agent signings before this season, these are the 10 worst.

Every offseason, MLB teams look to the free agent pool to acquire players to help them in the future. Some free agent signings are expensive blockbuster acquisitions, like a stud starting pitcher or a power-hitting outfielder, but others don’t make any headlines, like signing a lefty setup guy to a one-year deal. The 2016-2017 offseason didn’t have any huge contracts, like Zack Greinke’s six-year, $206.5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks prior to the 2016 season, but it had some $15-$20 million per year contract signings.

Among the big names signed before this season were Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Turner, and Kenley Jansen, all of whom re-upped with their previous teams. There were three big money relief pitchers signed—the aforementioned Kenley Jansen along with Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon—all making at least $15 million per season for four or five years. Big bats included Cespedes and Turner, and also Edwin Encarnacion. Dexter Fowler further stoked the Cardinals-Cubs rivalry by switching from Cubs blue to Cardinals red.

With any free agent class, there are some winners and losers. Some contracts work out very well, some are just okay, and some are spectacularly bad (from the team’s point of view). Of course, it’s not entirely fair to judge a long-term signing after just one season, but I’ll do it anyway.

This list of the 10 worst free agent signings in the offseason is based on the player’s production in 2017 and the cost of his contact. For that reason, many low-cost, one-year free agents didn’t make the cut. The Rangers signed Mike Napoli to a one-year, $8.5 million deal. He’s been bad, but it’s just one and done. The Rangers will recover. The Rockies, who still owe Ian Desmond at least $60 million over the next four years, are likely feeling more regret.

Here are the 10 worst MLB free agent signings last offseason:

Number Ten

SP Derek Holland, Chicago White Sox, 1-year, $6 million

7-14, 135 IP, 6.20 ERA, 6.44 FIP, 1.71 WHIP

-0.9 WAR (FanGraphs)

-1.6 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

Derek Holland didn’t cost the White Sox much, but he was so bad that he earned a spot on this list despite the relatively inexpensive contract. In fact, he was so bad, the White Sox released him in early September after he went 7-14 with a 6.20 ERA. That’s the fourth-worst ERA of any pitcher with more than 100 innings this season. And it’s not like he was unlucky. His 6.44 FIP is the worst of any pitcher with more than 100 innings pitched in 2017.

Holland was bad in all the ways a pitcher can be bad. He didn’t strike out enough batters and he walked too many. Only three pitchers with more than 100 innings have a higher walk rate than Holland. He also gave up more than two home runs per nine innings, ranking in the bottom six in that category. Along the way, he had 10 starts in which he allowed five earned runs or more and pitched fewer than six innings. In his four worst starts, he allowed 29 earned runs in 9.7 innings.

He’s only 30 years old and throws left-handed, so Holland will get more chances to pitch in the big leagues, but he’s unlikely to get another contract for 2018 like he did this year. Coming off a three-year stretch with a 5.50 ERA in 301 innings, Holland may be looking at a spring training invite in 2018.

Number Nine

SP Travis Wood, Kansas City Royals, 2-years, $12 million

4-7, 94 IP, 6.80 ERA, 5.90 FIP, 1.73 WHIP

-0.6 WAR (FanGraphs)

-1.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

Fresh off of a World Series victory with the Chicago Cubs in 2016, Wood signed with the Kansas City Royals in February. He’d been superficially good with the Cubs as a lefty reliever with a 2.95 ERA. His FIP was 4.54, so that ERA had some good fortune attached to it. The Royals started Wood in the bullpen and he struggled for the first three months of the season. At the end of June, he had a 6.28 ERA as a reliever.

The Royals moved him to the rotation in July and he allowed 12 earned runs in 13 innings across three starts, an ERA of 8.31 as a starter. That got him traded to the San Diego Padres, along with Matt Strahm and minor leaguer Esteury Ruiz. The Padres sent three arms back to Kansas City, including Brandon Maurer, who had been the Padres’ closer, albeit a closer with a 5.72 ERA (but a 3.23 FIP).

Wood has remained a starter with the Padres. In 11 outings, he has a 6.71 ERA and 6.99 FIP. While the Cubs look are headed back to the playoffs to defend their first World Series victory since 1908, Travis Wood is getting hammered in the rotation of the fourth place Padres. What a difference a year makes.

Number Seven

 C Matt Wieters, Washington Nationals, 2-years, $21 million

119 G, 452 PA, .226/.285/.347, 43 R, 10 HR, 52 RBI

-0.2 WAR (FanGraphs)

-0.5 WAR (Baseball Reference)

It feels like a long time ago that Matt Wieters Facts was a thing. Back in 2009, Wieters was Baseball Jesus, ready to hit like no catcher had ever hit before. He crushed Double-A pitching in 2008, with a .365/.460/.625 batting line, and would need only a half-season in Triple-A before joining the Orioles as a 23-year-old demigod in 2009. With all of the resultant hype, Matt Wieters Facts were everywhere:

“Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning . . . there were no survivors.”

“The sun rises when Matt Wieters decides to wake up.”

“Matt Wieters once framed a pitch so perfectly that it counted as two strikes.”

Wieters didn’t live up to the hype because no one could live up to the hype he faced. He was a good player, though. By FanGraphs WAR, he was the most valuable catcher in the American League from 2010-2013 (Joe Mauer and Mike Napoli had more WAR, but neither were regulars at catcher for all four of those seasons). Unfortunately, after averaging 3.3 WAR per season during this stretch, Wieters missed much of the next two seasons because of injuries.

He came back in 2016 to play 124 games and had a 1.8-WAR season for the Orioles, but that was it. The Orioles let him go and he signed in February with the Washington Nationals for two years and $21 million. So far, it hasn’t gone well. Wieters is having the worst hitting season of his career. He’s still good behind the dish, but his anemic bat has made him a below replacement-level player.

Number Six

DH Carlos Beltran, Houston Astros, 1-year, $16 million

126 G, 498 PA, .230/.283/.386, 59 R, 14 HR, 51 RBI

-1.1 WAR (FanGraphs)

-0.7 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

Carlos Beltran has had a good, long career that includes a Rookie of the Year Award and nine All-Star game nods. He had a very good season with the Yankees and Rangers last year at the age of 39. The Astros signed him in December with talk about “veteran leadership,” but they surely wanted some hitting to go along with it. Instead, he’s having the worst season of his career.

It’s always a risk signing someone as old as Beltran and, so far, it’s not working out for the Astros. Beltran has been bad in general and he’s been bad even when compared to other older players. There are seven position players age 38 or older who have 100 or more plate appearances and Beltran is hitting the worst of the bunch.

The last two months have been particularly bad. Since August 1, Beltran has hit .203/.254/.317. The Astros have already punched their ticket to the postseason, so Beltran’s lack of production hasn’t hurt them in the regular season, but they’d like to see something from his bat in the playoffs. He has a history of good production in the postseason, with a .323/.432/.646 career line, but much of that was when he was younger and better. If he can recapture the magic of his youth for the month of October and lead the Astros to a title, maybe they won’t regret the $16 million he cost this year. We’ll see how that plays out.

Number Five

OF Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays, 1-year, $18.5 million

152 G, 667 PA, .204/.310/.365, 90 R, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 6 SB

-0.3 WAR (FanGraphs)

-1.8 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

In what was almost surely his last home game for the Blue Jays on Sunday, Bautista was 2-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI. The fans cheered him throughout, from when he took the field before the rest of his teammates to when he was removed late in the game for a defensive replacement. He gave the Blue Jays and their fans many good years of production.

Before heading north to Canada, Bautista struggled to even have an MLB career. He played for four different teams before finding success with Toronto. Five years into his career, Bautista was a .239/.324/.398 hitter. Even in his first full year with the Blue Jays, Bautista hit just .235/.349/.408.

The light flipped on in 2010 when Bautista led the AL in home runs and slugged .617. He led the league in home runs again in 2011 and again slugged over .600. Those two seasons were the apex of his career, but he continued to play well enough to be an All-Star four more times while regularly getting on base at a good clip and hitting for power.

The 2016 season was the beginning of a steep decline for Bautista, as he hit the age of 35 and was limited to 116 games. He became a free agent in November, but the market was flush with power hitters who had defensive limitations and Bautista re-signed with the Blue Jays for $18 million and a $500,000 buyout for the 2018 season, which the Blue Jays will exercise.

Bautista has been awful this season. He’s been a well below average hitter for the first time since 2008. He barely has his batting average over the Mendoza line and is slugging just .365. There’s a significant discrepancy between his FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR, which can be attributed to his defense. They both have him below average, but Baseball-Reference has him significantly below average. Baseball-Reference also has him as the worst position player in the game.

Number Four

RP Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants, 4-years, $62 million

1-2, 11 SVS, 30 IP, 4.50 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 1.43 WHIP

0.4 WAR (FanGraphs)

0.1 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

Melancon, along with Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, was one of the big three relievers who signed hefty contracts before this season. Only Jansen earned his keep. Chapman has been okay, but not the lights-out closer he’d been before. He has his lowest saves total since he became a full-time closer. Melancon has been worse, thanks to injuries that have limited him to 30 innings.

To be fair, the Giants still have three years for this four-year deal with Mark Melancon to work out. In the first year of the deal, though, his injuries prevented him from providing much value to the team. He hasn’t pitched since September 5 and won’t pitch again this year, but will enter next season as the team’s closer.

In the 30 innings Melancon pitched, he gave up home runs at nearly double the rate as last year. His ERA and FIP were over 3.00 for the first time since 2012. And he’ll be 33 years old heading into next season. The good news is that he had similar strikeout and walk rates as he’s had the last couple years and his fastball velocity was as good as ever. He didn’t earn his keep this year, but if Melancon can come back and be the lockdown closer he was before, Giants fans will be happy.

 Number Three

 DH Kendrys Morales, Toronto Blue Jays, 3-years, $33 million

147 G, 496 PA, .248/.307/.442, 66 R, 27 HR, 82 RBI

-0.7 WAR (FanGraphs)

-0.4 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

The Blue Jays signed Kendrys Morales just a couple weeks after the end of the 2016 World Series. He was an early signing among the bat-only crowd. Ostensibly, he was signed at least in part to replace the production of Edwin Encarnacion, who had been granted free agency. Encarnacion signed with Cleveland for almost twice as much as Morales. He ended up being worth his price, while Morales is having a below-replacement-level season

On the surface, a 27-HR, 82-RBI season looks pretty good, but Morales’ batting line has produced a 96 wRC+, which means he’s been four percent worse than the average hitter when league and ballpark effects are taken into account. For a player who offers no value on defense and negative value on the bases, the bat has to be better than that.

He’ll be 35 years old next year and is still owed $23 million for the next two years. That’s too much money to be paid after the year he just had. The Blue Jays will be hoping for a rebound, but Morales was just under a 1.0 WAR player in 2016 so it’s hard to expect much more than that as he gets another year older.

Number Two

1B Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles, 3-years, $37.5 million

143 G, 598 PA, .235/.289/.399, 79 R, 23 HR, 65 RBI

-1.1 WAR (FanGraphs)

-0.5 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

In a different era, Trumbo would have received a much bigger deal than the 3-year, $37.5 million he got from the Orioles when he re-signed with them in January. He was coming off a 47-HR, 108-RBI season, with those 47 homers being the most in the American League. A generation ago, he would have been a highly desirable commodity.

With the advances in player valuation, teams didn’t break the bank for Trumbo. He ended up singing a relatively modest deal with the Orioles. Despite all those home runs, Trumbo was about a league average player in 2016 because he had negative defensive value and didn’t provide anything on the bases.

This year, he still has negative defensive value and still doesn’t provide anything on the bases and his bat has gone limp. He’s slugging under .400 for the first time in his career (other than an eight-game sample in 2010) and his on-base percentage is under .300. He’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did in 2016, as his hard hit percentage has dropped from 39 percent to 30 percent. He went from 16^th in the league in that metric in 2016 to 114^th in 2017. And the Orioles still owe him $26 million for the next two years.

Number One

OF Ian Desmond, Colorado Rockies, 5-years, $70 Million

90 G, 355 PA, .275/.323/.370, 43 R, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 14 SB

-0.9 WAR (FanGraphs)

-1.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference)

This signing was odd at the time and looks really bad now. Desmond was a shortstop for many years with the Washington Nationals, then moved to left field and then center field after signing with the Texas Rangers in 2016. He had a good year with the Rangers and re-entered the free agent market as an above-average hitter who could handle two premier defensive positions. Then the Rockies signed him to be their first baseman and everyone said, “Huh?”

As it turned out, Desmond was beaned in a spring training game and broke the second metatarsal in his left hand. He missed almost all of April. When he got back on the field, he didn’t hit much in May, June, and July, then injured his calf and missed another month. He came back at the end of August and has played regularly for the last month, but still isn’t hitting. With just a week left in the season, he’s having the worst year of his career.

Next: Judge catching fire at right time

The way Desmond’s contract is structured, he was only paid $8 million this year. He’s owed $22, $15, $15, and $8 million over the next four years. He’ll have to return to being the player he was with the Rangers last year or the Nationals from 2012 to 2014 to be worth $22 million next year. For this year, he was the worst free agent signing of them all.