Minor League Baseball League Top 10 Prospects: California League
With the minor league baseball season over, it’s list season, and we’ll continue the league top 10 lists with the California League
Minor league baseball has concluded its regular season and playoffs at this point, so we will be starting our series of league top 10 prospects here at Call To The Pen. This series will be keyed by Benjamin Chase through extensive video research and discussion with scouts and those within the game. Certainly, there are other opinions on these players and the order, but this is his list. Each list will start with a review of the season for that league and some of the leaders in each league. One note: to be eligible to be on this list, a player must have qualified for the league stat leaders (2.7 PA/league G for hitters, 0.8 IP/league game for pitchers) in order to be considered.
Season Wrap
In a season where no team in the Cal League won 80 games and no team lost 80 games, the league was bunched quite a bit in the middle. Modesto finished the season with just a .529 winning percentage (an 86 win season in the major leagues) for the best record in the North division overall, winning the first half title. They stormed through the playoffs, sweeping each of their playoff series on their way to winning the league title.
Some of the league leaders:
AVG – Yonathan Daza, Lancaster, .341
OBP – Eric Filia, Modesto, .407
SLG – DJ Peters, Rancho Cucamonga, .514
HR – Seth Brown, Stockton, 30
SB – Wes Rogers, Lancaster, 70
W – Reggie McClain, Modesto, 12
SV – Dylan Rheault, San Jose, 21
K – Jose Almonte, Visalia, 162
ERA – Caleb Ferguson, Rancho Cucamonga, 2.87
WHIP – Adam Bray, Rancho Cucamonga, 1.15
Now to the top 10…
10. Michael Gettys, OF, San Diego Padres
One of the more impressive athletes when he was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft out of high school in Georgia by the Padres, Gettys has hit well and flashed plenty of athleticism while struggling with swing and miss.
After hitting .305/.363/.442 with 23 doubles, 5 triples, 12 home runs, and 33 stolen bases in 2016, Gettys struggled in the Arizona Fall League, much due to his high strikeout rate, something he’s never been able to have under 26%.
That struggle with a long bat path in his swing really caught up to Gettys this season. He hit .254/.329/.431 with 22 doubles, 4 triples, 17 home runs, and 22 stolen bases. However, he also had 191 strikeouts in 513 plate appearances.
The raw talent is still present for Gettys, and he has the ability to be a center fielder long term in the big leagues with a legit double plus arm and some of the best defensive skills in all of the minor leagues.
Gettys does still possess average to above average power that he struggles to completely access with his swing and miss issues. If he could make strides in his plate discipline, Gettys could easily be one of the top prospects in all of the game.
With a flood of prospects coming behind him, Gettys will likely be pushed up to AA in 2018, but it would not surprise to see guys pass him up if he needs more time on his zone recognition while others are ready to move up past him.
9. Matt Thaiss, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Coming out of Virginia, Thaiss was one of the best pure hitters in the 2016 college crop, one of the weakest college hitting crops in recent memory. The Angels made him the 16th overall pick, but then immediately took away a significant portion of his value when they moved him from behind the plate to first base.
It’s not that Thaiss had any future behind the plate, as he was a below-average fielder behind the plate and would not have worked long-term there, but to take him that high just to move him seemed an odd decision, especially since Thaiss is not a guy who was 6’4″ and playing catcher. He’s 6′ (if that) and barely 200 pounds.
The Angels loved his ability to make consistent solid contact from the left side, hoping he would work to a positive defender at first base that hit for a high average and developed power. So far, he’s been a fairly average defender, the power doesn’t look to be coming, but at least he’s hitting for a good average.
While he’ll move quickly most likely, Thaiss may be a guy who hits the majors with pedigree and needs multiple years to finally see power creep into his game, similar to Yonder Alonso, though like Alonso, he may have to sacrifice something within his swing in order to accomplish that power.
Thaiss had the plate appearances required to make this list and he also spent decent time with the Angels’ AA team in the Southern League. Combined between the two, he hit .274/.375/.395 with 27 doubles, 4 triples, 9 home runs, and 8 stolen bases with a 77/109 BB/K ratio.
Thaiss most likely will be opening the 2018 season in AA and finish the season in Los Angeles, but the impact he’ll have for the Angels is what remains to be seen.
8. Caleb Ferguson, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
An impressive physical specimen out of high school, Ferguson had a ton of college interest before he had Tommy John surgery right before the 2014 draft, leading to a number of schools backing away from him. West Virginia stayed with Ferguson, but the Dodgers were able to buy him away from that commitment for $100K.
In 2016, Ferguson really turned some heads when he threw across three low levels, hurling 66 1/3 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 5/63 BB/K ratio. That level of control from someone returning from Tommy John is incredibly rare and made Ferguson someone to follow in 2017.
He has not disappointed for sure. He went 9-4 with the Quakes, with a 2.87 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 55/140 BB/K over 122 1/3 innings this season.
Ferguson has really moved forward in his raw stuff since his surgery, seeing his fastball tick up to sitting 91-94 in starts I saw, touching 96. He was a pitcher with heavy sink in high school, and much of that is gone from his fastball now, requiring him to use excellent control to generate the weak swings that his movement would previously.
His best secondary pitch is a curve that comes in with tremendous location, whether he wants to locate it within the zone or bury it in the dirt. He is especially adept at burying the pitch at a right-handed hitter’s feet and getting the swing and miss.
Ferguson’s change still has work to do, but he has good results with the pitch against lefties. The change is where he saw much of his command issues early in the season, but late in the year, he was nearly always on the catcher’s mitt with each pitch.
Ferguson will get a bump up to AA, opening the season at 21 years old. He has a solid expectation of mid-rotation starter, but his ceiling could climb quite a bit if he could take a step forward with the change.
7. Garrett Hampson, SS, Colorado Rockies
Hampson comes from a long line of Long Beach State shortstops who have had successful pro careers, and while he’s unlikely to reach the heights of former Rockie Troy Tulowitzki, Hampson has a chance to have a solid pro career after being a 3rd round selection in 2016.
Hampson has a very smooth feel on the field regardless of which side of the second base bag he works on. His arm strength is a bit below-average for what you’d want from a shortstop, but more than adequate at second base. However, everything else he does at shortstop is above-average, including his reads, range, and hands at the position.
At the plate, Hampson has seen a lot of growth, and a ton of it has come this season at Lancaster. On a team that ran a ton, Hampson really did solid work driving the ball and using gaps well to use his plus speed to the best of his ability. That said, he does have below-average power that will likely not translate to double-digit home run power, but if he can continue to use gaps well and stay in the Rockies organization, he could really do well in the expansive Colorado outfield, making his 24 doubles and 12 triples this season seem very feasible at the highest level if he continues developing.
With other middle infielders that are young and solid players in the system, Hampson will need to continue showing well to continue moving up in the organization, but he is probably more adept at shortstop than fellow prospect Brendan Rodgers, though Rodgers’ prospect pedigree has him playing the position until he works his way off of it and Hampson’s has him having to earn his way on it.
Most likely, Hampson will open 2018 at AA, and he’ll hope to build on the development he’s seen in 2017 to possibly push his way up to the big leagues by the end of the season. He has DJ LeMahieu ahead of him in Colorado at second and Trevor Story at short, but with both hitting arbitration after the 2018 season, he could seem a cost-saving alternative for the 2019 club.
6. Yonathan Daza, OF, Colorado Rockies
After three years in the Dominican Summer League, the Venezuelan product emerged once he came stateside, showing consistent elite contact skills.
Daza played the full season with Lancaster this season in his second full season in the system. Though he is “old” for a prospect at 23, Daza has developed significantly in the last two seasons, and he could certainly move quickly in the Rockies system going forward.
Daza’s contact skills are really his only offensive skill that is a plus one, but his quick, compact swing arguably generates fringe double-plus contact ability with his ability to get “good wood” on the ball frequently. Daza is also an above-average to fringe-plus runner, so he can turn his hits into the gaps into doubles and triples pretty easily.
While he has the instincts and speed to handle center field, Daza really shines in right field. Though he does not have the offensive profile of a typical power right field guy, he has the plus arm and incredible accuracy to work well in right field, as evidenced by his 22 combined assists in 2016.
While he may be on track to be more of a 4th outfielder type, Daza’s growth at the plate, albeit without much of a power profile at all to speak of, has him pushing his way into the notice of Rockies evaluators with a chance to use his quality contact skills be enough to work as a second-division starting outfielder.
Daza will likely get his first taste of the upper minors in 2018.
5. Nick Neidert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
One of those guys that was either a fringe-top 100 guy for services last season or completely dismissed, Neidert has been showing very well since being a 2nd round selection out of high school in Georgia by the Mariners in 2015.
Neidert posted a 1.53 ERA over 11 appearances in his draft season, followed by a 2.57 ERA over 91 innings in 2016. Getting his first shot at a full season this season, Neidert really made big strides, with a 10-3 record and a 2.76 ERA in the Cal League. He had a handful of rough starts at AA to finish off the season, but he was at the end of his first full season, and only 20 years old, so it’s very likely he could do much better repeating that same level in 2018. Overall, he had a 3.45 ERA over 25 starts and 127 2/3 innings with a 1.17 WHIP and a 22/122 BB/K ratio.
Neidert isn’t going to blow anyone away with pure stuff, but his pitching moxie on the mound is impressive. He throws in the 92-93 range, but can touch 95-97. His fastball works with a ton of movement and his change has become an easy plus if not a double-plus pitch, generating incredibly weak swings and plenty of swing and miss.
Neidert’s off-speed stuff is more for weak contact, but he did show the ability to locate both his curve and his slider well in the zone this year, and each gives hitters a different look.
Neidert will likely return to AA in 2018 to AA Arkansas and work his way up from there.
4. Austin Allen, C, San Diego Padres
A 2015 4th round selection out of Florida Institute of Technology, Allen has been a guy who has hit since he first came into the Padres organization, but the concern has always been how his 6’4″, 225 pound frame would play at catcher.
He had a solid season in his first full pro season in 2016, hitting .320/.364/.425 with 22 doubles, 8 home runs, and a 29/69 BB/K over 464 plate appearances. He took that hitting to another level this season, tapping into his massive raw power, hitting .283/.353/.497 with 31 doubles, 22 home runs, and a 44/109 BB/K ratio over 516 plate appearances.
While Allen’s bat was so good that it required that he be in the lineup as DH more often, he also took significant steps forward as a pitch framer (something very difficult for taller catchers to do well). He still has work to do to get his footwork down against base runners, but he’s certainly made strides in that area as well.
Someone made the suggestion to me this season that Allen looked very similar to Tyler Flowers as a prospect. That would be an interesting career path, though Flowers is one of the best catchers in the game this season. Allen will get to see how his path continues forward in AA in 2018.
3. DJ Peters, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Peters was not unknown, having been drafted twice before, but he was seemingly undervalued in the 2016 draft as a 4th round selection that the Dodgers spent only $250K on. That may look like the bargain of the rounds beyond the third if he continues developing the way he has thus far.
Peters is a traditional right field profile with a monster power bat and a huge arm. He looks the part as well at 6’6″ and 225-235 pounds, looking like a football tight end when he steps up to the plate. Peters does very well once he gets to top speed as he is above-average at top speed, but with his bigger frame, it does take a couple extra strides to get to top speed, so he is never going to be a base stealer or an elite defender, but he does well defending, and once underway on the bases, he does very well.
Peters has an incredible amount of power unleashed with each swing. He does have a significant amount of load into the zone, and his long arms do allow him to get jammed at times, so strikeouts will always be a thing for him, but he has taken walks fairly well, and he continues to show incredible power when he does get ahold of the ball.
This season, Peters hit .276/.372/.514 with 29 doubles, 5 triples, and 27 home runs. He had a 64/189 BB/K ratio on the season, though that was a significant spike in his strikeout rates. With the success this season of similarly built and skilled Aaron Judge at the big league level, Peters will be getting plenty of opportunity with the Dodgers, likely opening 2018 in AA.
2. Bryan Reynolds, OF, San Francisco Giants
A guy who may not have a single plus tool, Reynolds’ overall above average skill set had him on the first round watch with many coming into the 2016 draft, so when the Giants were able to get him in the 2nd round, they were quite happy.
Reynolds was an elite player for three seasons with one of the best programs in the country in Vanderbilt, and he hit the ground running in his draft season. In his first full season in 2017, Reynolds played incredible ball, hitting .312/.364/.462 with 26 doubles, 9 triples, 10 home runs, and 5 stolen bases along with a 37/106 BB/K ratio over 121 games.
Reynolds is a guy who uses his above-average speed well on the bases, though not so much as a base stealer. He also shows very solid range in center, but his below-average arm likely will mean he ends up playing in left field, though that would mean he’s among the better left fielders in the game.
Reynolds is a switch-hitter, and he really has shown no issues from either side generating hard contact to this point. He does not generate a ton of home run power, however, using his contact ability and speed to leg out plenty of extra base hits.
Reynolds is a hard guy to profile, but his overall play reminds me a ton of former Giant Randy Winn. Reynolds will be moved up to AA in 2018, and it would not surprise if the Giants accelerate his movement up the system in 2018 if he continues producing.
1. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
A number of Cuban players that come to the US have had mixed results in the Cuban leagues before coming to the US, mainly due to their young age while in those leagues. That was not the case with Diaz, who was an elite player as a teenager in the highest level of Cuban baseball. The Dodgers spent $15.5M in bonus (and the same in matching penalty for a total $31M investment) on Diaz to bring him in.
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Diaz struggled with injury in 2016, though he hit well while he was playing, posting a .267/.326/.415 line with 8 doubles, 7 triples, 9 home runs, and 7 steals. He was assigned back to Rancho Cucamonga to open 2017, and he played enough there to qualify for this list before moving up to AA Tulsa. His final season line was .292/.354/.433 with 23 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs, and 9 stolen bases.
Diaz did work on his swing this season during the season, and watching video at various points in the season saw a change from a more prolonged front leg kick to more of a slight kick to get to a quality plane swing. He was able to generate more power in the swing from this approach.
Diaz has plus speed, but he has poor instincts in stealing bases. He does much better in running bases, but not being able to generate positive stolen bases with his level of speed is a concern. He uses his speed well in the field to be a plus corner outfielder and an above-average center fielder. Diaz has shown now major issues with his throwing arm this season, which was a plus-graded arm before the shoulder issues in 2016.
Diaz will turn 21 in early October, and he’s likely to spend most of 2018 in the upper minors at age 21. His future is very bright.
Next: 2017 Minor League Awards team
Some of the top prospects who didn’t make the minimum time in the league this season included Jahmai Jones, Yusniel Diaz, Josh Naylor, Will Smith, Brendan Rodgers, Sean Murphy, Kyle Lewis, Keibert Ruiz, A.J. Puk, Joey Lucchesi, Jon Duplantier, Eric Lauer, Cal Quantrill, Yadier Alvarez, and Mitchell White. All of those players would have merited consideration for this list, but none had the requisite time for the list.