San Diego Padres not opposed to spending on free agents this winter

The San Diego Padres are seemingly ahead of schedule by a slight margin, entering the season’s final day with a record of 71-90 when many expected them to be the worst team in the game. With the rebuild firmly on their minds, the Pads wouldn’t be opposed to spending a little via free agency this winter.

The last time the San Diego Padres made a big splash on the free agent market, they signed James Shields for four years and $75 million. After starting 44 games over a season plus with the club and holding a 4.00 ERA in that span, the Friars shipped him to the South Side of Chicago for a prospect and a reliever while eating significant chunks of what remains on that Shields contract. Needless to say, this type of frivolous spending is not exactly what the Padres would like to do this winter, especially while in full-blown rebuild mode.

Padres Executive Chairman Ron Fowler told the San Diego Union-Tribune, “We are not restrained by anything” when referencing the team’s payroll. He continued by saying:

“We paid 37 million-plus this year in international penalties. But A.J. and Andy will really determine what that number is. We have not placed any constraints on them. We need to see what they think needs to be done to make this a better team in ‘18 than it was in ‘17, but right now I have no idea what that is.”

Fowler goes on to say that the Padres could look at making a trade involving a prospect that they think somebody overvalues to get “say, a 28-year-old outfielder to hit in the middle of our lineup.”

That last bit was a little on the nose, no? The first thought that comes to mind is Khris Davis of the Oakland Athletics, who for the second consecutive season has drilled 42 homers. He is currently 29 and will be in his age 30 season in 2018, however.

The overarching theme of the second half of the article linked above, written by the tremendous Dennis Lin, is that those that are in charge of making the personnel decisions will be given the freedom to explore all options, no matter the cost, and if they feel that a certain option should be brought on board to the Padres this winter, then they’ll be allowed the resources to try and achieve that goal.

Managing partner Peter Seidler said of the payroll decisions:

“We try to look at the payroll budget as kind of a three-year exercise,” Seidler added. “It’s not like we have to spend a certain amount in any year or there’s a ceiling we can spend in any year. At some point, we’ll put together a budget, and A.J.’s always free to come to us and say ‘If I don’t spend $10 million this year, can I get it next year?’ And the answer is ‘Of course.’ And it’s the other way around, too.”

With so much young talent on board this Padres club, it will be interesting to see how they form a team that can build upon what the 2017 version has achieved. Though their record stands at 71 wins, their Pythagorean win-loss record is much lower at 58-102, indicating that they may actually be the team that many were expecting.

Typically, this can be explained away by how a team does in one-run contests, much like the recent success from the Rangers and Orioles, but this year’s Padres are just 19-18 in those games. Instead, it’s their record when they score than three runs or fewer (13-69) that seemingly did them in this season. When they scored four or more their record shot up to 57-21. Now you can see why adding an outfielder that can hit in the middle of their lineup may not have been a throwaway line.

The three Rule 5 picks that they have held on their roster all season will be able to spend some time in the minors in 2018, which would presumably clear up three spots on the 25-man roster from the outset.

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Miguel Diaz, 22, went 1-1 with a 7.34 ERA across 31 appearances, three starts. Luis Torrens, 21, appeared in 50 games behind the dish and hit just .163 over 123 at-bats, totaling a -1.1 bWAR on the season. Allen Cordoba, 21, played all around the diamond, spending the most time hidden away in left field, or at his more natural shortstop position. He hit .210 with a .284 OBP and held a -0.7 bWAR.

All three players jumped up from the minors and were well out of their depth in 2017, with Cordoba jumping up from Rookie Ball and Diaz and Torrens from A Ball. They were kept on the roster all season (minus some injury time) because, well, thems the rules, and because the Padres believe that they can be a part of their future.

But that future isn’t just yet, and now the Padres will have holes to fill behind the dish, in the bullpen and someone who can play numerous positions. Making upgrades to just league average players here could bring home a couple of extra victories.

The overall focus this winter will be in the rotation and in the bullpen. There are some big fish that could become available this winter, like Yu Darvish, or potentially Masahiro Tanaka or Johnny Cueto if they opt out, but none of those three looks like a prime candidate to join the Padres at this stage of their rebuild.

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To land some pitching upgrades, they may have to make some big decisions on some of their prospects, like Fowler mentioned above. Is Hunter Renfroe a player that can turn things around, or is he all power and a huge strikeout machine that doesn’t walk? Can he learn how to strike out less and draw a few more walks? If San Diego doesn’t think so, that could be one of those prospects that another team values (do the Rangers need another Joey Gallo?) and could be their way to add some arms for their rebuild.

As always, the Padres will be an interesting team to keep an eye on this offseason.