Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez likely to be on pitch count in 2018

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto expects Felix Hernandez to be used carefully in 2018 after struggling to stay healthy this year.

The 2017 season was rough for the Seattle Mariners pitching staff, particularly the starting pitchers. The M’s tied the 2014 Texas Rangers for the most pitchers ever used in a season, with 40. They also tied the franchise record for most starting pitchers used in a season, with 17. The only other time they used this many starting pitchers was in their inaugural year in 1977, back when Glenn Abbott was the staff ace.

At least in 1977 the team had two starters who pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. This year’s team didn’t have a single starter reach that threshold. Ariel Miranda came closest by finishing four innings short of 162, albeit with a 4.90 ERA. Miranda was typical of a Mariners starting pitcher. He had an ERA that was worse than league average and averaged fewer than six innings per start. Only one starting pitcher on the team, Mike Leake, in a small sample of six starts, averaged more than six innings per start.

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The staff ace was supposed to be Felix Hernandez, who has been the nominal ace for the last decade-plus. From 2006 to 2015, Hernandez averaged 218 innings and 14 wins per year, with a 3.13 ERA. Over the last two seasons, Hernandez has averaged 120 innings, eight wins, and a 4.01 ERA, thanks in large part to injuries. He’s been surpassed in effectiveness by James Paxton, but Paxton has injury problems of his own. The 136 innings pitched by Paxton this year were a career high.

Shannon Drayer tweeted about Hernandez on Tuesday, saying Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto expects the longtime Mariner will “need to be managed differently to get him through 30 starts. Pitch counts etc.” It’s a nice theory, but a quick look at the 16 starts Hernandez made in 2017 reveal just two in which he threw more than 100 pitches. His season high was 107 and he averaged just 86 pitches per start. He pitched this season as if he were already on a pitch count.

When Hernandez won the 2010 AL Cy Young Award, he averaged nearly 110 pitches per start and topped 100 pitches 29 times in 34 starts. He had 23 games in which he threw 110 pitches or more. Those were the days when he was a true workhorse (considering the era in which he pitched). At least the Mariners seem to know he won’t be that workhorse again. As Drayer tweeted, “Dipoto believes Felix is doing everything he can in offseason but may also need down time or a skipped start. His issues are not going away.”

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Also not going away is the $54 million owed to Hernandez over the next two seasons. To be worth that salary, he’ll need to be a 3 to 4 WAR pitcher in each of the next two seasons. He hasn’t reached that level since 2014. It sounds like the Mariners know he won’t be that top-end starter going forward, so they’ll try to get as much value out of him as they can. If he can only go 80-90 pitches per start, that’s what he’ll do. He may not be the Felix of old, but hopefully he can contribute more than he did this year. Still, as one commenter on Twitter said, “I didn’t expect the ‘Felix 5^th Starter Era’ would seemingly come on so suddenly. Sigh.”