Toronto Blue Jays: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview
A disappointing season and an aging core of position players with hefty contracts means the Blue Jays will likely give this group one last shot in 2018.
Heading into the 2017 season, the Toronto Blue Jays looked to be competitive in the AL East or, at the very least, one of the main contenders for a wild card spot. Sports Illustrated had the Red Sox winning the AL East, but the Blue Jays were in the mix with the Rangers and Mariners for a playoff spot. Fangraphs also had the Red Sox winning the East, with the Blue Jays being their pick for the first wild card.
Alas, it was not to be. Injuries took their toll. They only had starting pitcher Aaron Sanchez for eight starts. He had come into his own as a starter the year before, when he put up a 3.00 ERA in 192 innings. This year, he had a 4.25 ERA in 36 innings. J.A. Happ went from 195 innings to 145.3 innings. They were also hoping to get some innings from Brett Anderson, but the of-injured lefty only started seven games.
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In the infield, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki had another injury-marred season. He played just 66 games and could barely muster a .300 OBP. Devon Travis seems to have caught Tulowitzki Disease. He played just 50 games. It then spread over to third base, where Josh Donaldson was limited to 113 games. Even catcher Russell Martin couldn’t escape it. He played 91 games, the lowest total of his career.
The season started poorly, with the Blue Jays going 8-17 in April. They rebounded in May with an 18-10 record and spent much of June within sight of a .500 record, but a 2-9 stretch from June 22 to July 3 dropped them to 37-45 and 10.5 games out of first in the AL East. They were 41-47 (.466) in the first half and only slightly better (35-39, .473) in the second half.
After reaching the ALCS in the two previous seasons, it was disappointing for the organization and their passionate fanbase to see the team finish fourth in their division and nine games out of a wild card spot. Despite the down season, the Blue Jays drew 3.2 million fans, tops in the AL.
So, where do they go from here? What do the Blue Jays need to do to compete with the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Orioles in 2018?
What Went Right
Despite missing almost one-third of the season because of injuries, third baseman Josh Donaldson was still a very productive player. He hit .270/.385/.559, with 33 home runs and 78 RBI in 496 plate appearances. That’s not quite at the level of his 2015 AL MVP season, but a full season at that pace would fit in well with the other 7-WAR seasons he’s had since 2013.
After years of straddling the replacement level line, Justin Smoak finally broke out with an above average season. He blew right past his previous career highs by belting 38 home runs and driving in 90. If this is for real, Smoak will be a bargain basement option at first base for the next two years, as he’s signed for $4.125 million next year, with a $6 million club option for 2019.
On the mound, starting pitcher Marcus Stroman moved into the role of staff ace. He was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 201 innings. He’s not a top-tier ace because he doesn’t strike out as many guys as studs like Chris Sale and Corey Kluber, but he and a healthy Aaron Sanchez can be a nice 1-2 at the top of the rotation. He’ll earn a raise in arbitration from the $3.4 million he earned this year, but will still be a good value for the club.
In the bullpen, closer Roberto Osuna had another good year, with 39 saves and a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings. It was not without its blemishes, though. He also blew 10 saves, most of which came in the second half. Through July 27, Osuna had 26 saves in 30 attempts and a 1.91 ERA. From that point on, he saved 13 of 19 and was knocked around for a 6.23 ERA.
A couple of other bright notes: the Blue Jays selected reliever Dominic Leone off waivers and got 70.3 innings of 2.56 ERA pitching for nearly the league minimum salary. They also traded struggling pitcher Francisco Liriano for outfield prospect Teoscar Hernandez and saw Hernandez hit .261/.305/.602 in 26 games with the club.
What Went Wrong
Along with the injuries mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays had too many players who didn’t reach expectations. Two big bats and two infielders were below replacement-level. This foursome was Ryan Goins, Jose Bautista, Darwin Barney, and Kendrys Morales. At least Goins and Barney had inexpensive contracts; Bautista ($17 million) and Morales ($11 million) made up roughly 17 percent of the payroll and combined to hit .226/.308/.404. They were also negatives in the field and on the bases.
Speaking of high-priced disappointments, Troy Tulowitzki made $20 million this year and is due to make $54 million over the next three years, with a $15 million team option for 2021. He hit just .249/.300/.378 in 66 games in 2017. An optimist could point to his 3.3 WAR season in 2016 and hope that he can get back to that level next year. A pessimist would note that he’ll be 33 years old and is more likely than not on the downside of his career.
The starting rotation had two effective starters, Marcus Stroman and J.A. Happ, but not much beyond that. Marco Estrada started 33 games, but had a 4.98 ERA. Aaron Sanchez was injured and Francisco Liriano was bad, then traded. Joe Biagini had a 5.73 ERA in 18 starts.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen wasn’t bad. Per Fangraphs WAR, they were the seventh-best relievers in baseball. They did have a disappointing season from Jason Grilli, though. He posted a 6.97 ERA in 20.7 innings before being traded to the Texas Rangers in early July.
Top Offseason Needs
With a number of high-priced contracts still on the books, the Blue Jays are likely to give this group of players one more shot to win it all. This is their possible lineup with player salaries for 2018:
C Russell Martin, $20 million
1B Justin Smoak, $4.125 million
2B Devon Travis, arbitration-eligible (made $0.545 million in 2017)
SS Troy Tulowitzki, $20 million
3B Josh Donaldson, arbitration-eligible (made $17 million in 2017)
LF Steve Pearce, $6.25 million
CF Kevin Pillar, arbitration-eligible (made $0.555 million in 2017)
RF Teoscar Hernandez, under team control
DH Kendrys Morales, $11 million
The big name missing from that lineup is Jose Bautista, who won’t be back with the Blue Jays. Bautista signed a one-year, $17 million deal before this season, then went out and had his worst year with the team. He was healthy enough to play 157 games, but hit an ugly .203/.308/.366. The team declined a mutual option after the season. He was a terrific player for most of his Toronto career and the fans will miss him, but it’s definitely time to move on. His last at-bat with the team was emotional for everyone involved.
With Bautista gone, the big question for the Blue Jays is what to do with Josh Donaldson. He’s been very clear that he would love to stay with the team for the long haul. He told Sportsnet:
“I love Toronto, I love playing there . . . My first choice as of right now is I want to be here. I enjoy the city, I enjoy this team.”
Because he got a late start to his major league career, Donaldson is still arbitration eligible and can’t become a free agent until after next season. He made $17 million this year and will be expecting more next year. The Toronto front office has to decide what to do with Donaldson, who will be 32 years old in December.
We’ll see if the Blue Jays want to pony up for a long-term deal with Donaldson this offseason. If not, they could give him one more year to win a championship, then blow the whole thing up when his contract and the combined $32 million owed to Russell Martin and Kendrys Morales comes off the books after the 2018 season.
The team could use another big bat, but first base and DH are taken by Smoak, who just had a breakout season, and Morales, who is still owed $11 million. That leaves the outfield as a potential spot for a good stick. Some big ticket options on the free agent market include J.D. Martinez, who’s price has gone up significantly because of his terrific second half of the season; Justin Upton, who can opt out of the four years and $88M he’s still owed; and Jay Bruce.
The starting rotation looks like this for 2018:
RHP Marcus Stroman, arbitration-eligible (made $3.4 million in 2017)
RHP Aaron Sanchez, arbitration-eligible (made $0.535 million in 2017)
LHP J.A. Happ, $13 million
RHP Marco Estrada, $13 million
The fifth spot could be given to a cheap in-house option or pitching prospect Ryan Borucki, who was named the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year by MLB Pipeline. Borucki struck out 157 batters in 150.3 innings across three minor league levels last season. If he’s not ready for prime time when the season starts, he could be an option later in the year.
The free agent starting pitching market has some potential, but all of the top pitchers are over 30 years old. This group is headlined by Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, along with a few pitchers who can opt out of their current deals, including Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto. Of course, there’s always 45-year-old Bartolo Colon, but baseball fans everywhere would prefer to see Colon in the NL so we can watch him hit and “run” the bases.
The Blue Jays have an aging core with considerable money going to position players on the downside of their careers. Their starting rotation is younger and cheaper, which gives them some options on what to spend money on in the free agent market. I expect they’ll give this group one last chance to get it done, but expect a very different Blue Jays team two years from now.