San Francisco Giants: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview
The Giants had their worst season in more than 30 years, but have so many big contracts that they’ll be reloading rather than rebuilding.
The Giants continued their trend of playoff seasons in even numbered years and non-playoff seasons in odd numbered years, but took it to the extreme in 2017. After winning the World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014, the Giants made the playoffs but lost in the NLDS in 2016. This year they were expected to win 86 or 87 games and be one of the two wild card teams in the National League by Sports Illustrated, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus.
The team got off to a bad start, winning just six of their first 16 games. Then things got worse when stud starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner injured his shoulder in a dirt bike accident in Chicago. He would miss nearly three months. Meanwhile, the Giants went 9-17 in April, 13-16 in May, and 9-18 in June. By the time Bumgarner came back just after the All-Star break, the Giants were 34-56 and 27 games out of first place in the NL West.
They were slightly better in the second half than the first, but still not great. By the end of the year, the Giants were tied with the Detroit Tigers for the worst record in baseball. It was the first time they finished last in the NL West since 2007 and their lowest winning percentage in a season since 1985, when they were 62-100.
It was a very disappointing season for the Giants and their fans, but the team was considered a contender just six months ago and still have talent on the roster. Also, next year is an even-numbered year, so there’s that.
Let’s look at what went right, what went wrong, and the top offseason needs for the San Francisco Giants.
What Went Right
As bad as the Giants’ season was, they still had Buster Posey. He did what he always does. He hit well (.320/.400/.462), played good defense behind the dish, and played 140 games. Posey had his lowest home run total in any full season, but he countered it with the second-highest on-base percentage of his career. Is it too soon to talk about Buster Posey and the Hall of Fame?
Beyond Buster, there were only three Giants hitters who were league average, based on Fangraphs WAR: Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford. Belt and Panik were above average hitters, while Crawford’s value came primarily on defense. He had a 21-HR, 84-RBI season two years ago, but struggled at the plate this year. These guys may not be worthy of the “What Went Right” category for a different team, but there just wasn’t much else on offense worth mentioning. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in baseball.
On the pitching side, it depends on your point of view whether Jeff Samardzija should be in the “What Went Right” category. He was 9-15, with a 4.42 ERA, which is not good. On the other hand, he had his highest strikeout rate since 2012 and the lowest walk rate of his career. Those are the two things a pitcher has the most control over.
He had some trouble with home runs, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP were both right around 3.60. In that sense, he “should” have had an ERA in that range. The results weren’t there this year, but a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate are good signs for the future.
In the bullpen, Cory Gearrin had a 1.99 ERA in 68 innings and Hunter Strickland had a 2.64 ERA in 61.3 innings. They both walked a few too many batters and didn’t have the big strikeout totals that many relievers are putting up these days, but they were effective in the later innings.
What Went Wrong
The Giants’ offense was terrible. They were second-to-last in MLB in runs scored and on-base percentage and last in home runs and slugging percentage. Hunter Pence is a fun guy to watch, but he had a bad year. His .260/.315/.385 batting line was the worst of his career and made him a below-average hitter for the first time.
Catcher Nick Hundley struggled to get on base (.272 OBP) and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez had no power (.326 SLG). Rookies Ryder Jones (.173/.244/.273 in 164 plate appearances) and Christian Arroyo (.192/.244/.304 in 135 plate appearances) did not have a successful introduction to major league pitching.
Also, for some reason the team brought back Pablo Sandoval after he was released by the Boston Red Sox. Sandoval showed he still can’t hit by posting a .225/.263/.375 line with the Giants. He also dealt the team a tough blow by hitting a walk-off home run to win their final game of the year. That win by the Giants allowed the Detroit Tigers to have the number one pick in next year’s June Amateur draft.
Heading into the season, the Giants were hoping Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Moore would fall in behind ace Madison Bumgarner to give the team a strong rotation. Instead, Bumgarner missed half the season, Cueto had a 4.52 ERA, Samardzija’s results didn’t match his peripherals, and Moore was the worst of the bunch, with a 5.52 ERA and 4.75 FIP. Ty Blach had 24 starts but his 4.78 ERA was not impressive.
Then there was Matt Cain, the one-time mainstay of the staff. From 2006 to 2013, Cain averaged 209 innings per year with a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He was reliable too, never starting fewer than 30 games during this eight-year stretch. In 51.3 postseason innings in 2010 and 2012, Cain was 4-2 with a 2.10 ERA.
Then injuries hit and Cain struggled. Over the last four years, he averaged 91 innings per year, with a 5.23 ERA. In late September, he announced he would retire after the season, then pitched five scoreless innings in his final start. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t score and lost the game, 3-2. Cain was a good guy who had a tough ending to a fine career.
Last December, the Giants signed free agent reliever Mark Melancon to a 4-year, $62 million contract to be their shutdown closer. Over the previous four years, Melancon averaged 37 saves, a 1.80 ERA, and 72 innings per year. This season went poorly right from the start when Melancon blew his first save opportunity of the year on Opening Day.
After that inauspicious debut, Melancon notched eight scoreless outings, then recorded his second blown save on the last day of April. On May 9, Melancon was placed on the DL for the first time. He came back on May 19 and was healthy enough to pitch for another five weeks, but struggled in June and was placed on the DL again on June 28.
He tried again in August and lasted into the first week of September, but the Giants finally ended his season after a bad outing in Colorado on September 5. He finished with a 4.50 ERA in 30 innings. He had surgery to repair the pronator muscle in his right forearm (compartment syndrome), but is expected to make a full recovery and start next year back in the closer’s role.
Finally, the Giants had two left-handed relievers who were just awful. Josh Osich (6.23 ERA in 43.3 innings) and Steven Okert (5.67 ERA in 27 innings) were knocked around the yard on a regular basis.
Top Offseason Needs
According to CBS Sports, the Giants had the third-highest payroll in baseball heading into this season. With a roster that cost $172 million, the Giants clearly expected to be contenders. Those big contracts are still on the books, so the Giants are likely to have a similar lineup and rotation next year. This is how their lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:
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C Buster Posey, $21.4 million
1B Brandon Belt, $16 million
2B Joe Panik, arbitration-eligible
SS Brandon Crawford, $15 million
3B Pablo Sandoval, $18 million (paid by Red Sox)
LF Jarret Parker, pre-arbitration
CF Denard Span, $9 million
RF Hunter Pence, $18.5 million
SP Madison Bumgarner, $12 million (team option)
SP Johnny Cueto, $21 million
SP Jeff Samardzija, $18 million
SP Matt Moore, $9 million (team option, $1 million buyout)
SP Ty Blach, pre-arbitration
SP Chris Stratton, pre-arbitration
RP Mark Melancon, $10 million
The Giants offense was awful this year and they need to upgrade spots not already occupied by high-priced players, which means third base and possibly left field and center field. The biggest need for the Giants is to fill the Pablo Sandoval-sized hole at third base.
Christian Arroyo had a sizzling start in Triple-A (.396/.461/.604), but that was a small sample size of just 25 games. When he got to the big leagues, he struggled mightily and was sent back down to Triple-A. A broken hand in July ended his season. If the Giants don’t sign a good-hitting third baseman (Mike Moustakas, perhaps?), Arroyo would be a fallback option, along with fellow rookie Ryder Jones.
Denard Span is owed $9 million for 2018. He was a league average hitter but rated poorly in center field. There is a ton of space to cover in “Triples Alley” between Span and right fielder Hunter Pence. Span will be 34 years old next year and Pence will be 35. The Giants need to upgrade their defense in center field, which means Span either moves to left or finds a new home.
One hard-hitting outfielder linked to the Giants is not a free agent, but could be available in a blockbuster trade. Giancarlo Stanton would provide the power the Giants lack, but the cost would be steep. The Giants don’t have a highly regarded farm system so any deal with the Marlins would likely mean the Giants taking on all of Stanton’s remaining salary. He’s owed $285 million over the next 10 years, with a $25 million club option or $10 million buyout for the eleventh year. He also has an opt-out after the 2020 season.
The back end of the starting rotation will need help also. Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija should be a solid front three, but Moore is a question mark after his bad season and Ty Blach and Chris Stratton are unproven. In the minor leagues, top-100 prospect Tyler Beede had a 4.79 ERA in 109 innings in Triple-A.
Next: Blue Jays 2017 Season Review
The bullpen will be anchored by Mark Melancon if he comes back healthy. They also have good arms from the right side in Hunter Strickland, Cody Gearrin, Kyle Crick, and Sam Dyson. They could use a left-handed reliever or two.