Phillies: Trading for pitching
During the mid-December ritual known as the Winter Meetings, the piping Hot Stove of the major leagues will be crackling with the wheeling and dealing of many franchises including the Philadelphia Phillies.
Dekeing for an Advantage:
In most industries, rivals seek even the slightest edge and protect their secrets with ardor and passion.
Keeping his options under wraps, president Andy MacPhail in a recent interview was both specific and vague regarding offseason strategy. Yes, he was direct with his answer of acquiring pitching through swaps. But “I guess” were the words preceding his statement, and they have a ring of uncertainty. In other words, everybody reading this knows the Phils need rotation help, and the exec didn’t achieve his prior successes without definite plans. Ergo, this contradiction reveals evasiveness.
In MacPhail’s statement regarding hurlers, he didn’t differentiate between starting or relieving. But while the five-man staff is an obvious need, the bullpen might be a different story. Hector Neris, Luis Garcia, Adam Morgan, Edubray Ramos and Hoby Milner have earned their spots; and they qualify as the homegrown preference stated by the higher-ups. But if they add two veterans, one experienced reliever with Leiter as the long man or no one, management could reveal their confidence in the pen.
When it comes to trades, receiving calls is usually about youngsters you prefer keeping like Rhys Hoskins. Yet ringing another general manager often leads to hearing inquiries regarding those players. However, a leadoff man, a top shortstop, a catcher and a first sacker with decent power are pieces of varied interest. But if the decision-makers don’t include a pitcher with one of these position players, combining two or three might be necessary.
Regarding free agents, the most expensive starters are over 30 and seeking five-year contracts for roughly $100 million. Don’t expect this. The next level down will cost around $15 million per 162 for the same length of commitment, and these moundsmen are in the same age group. However, Tyler Chatwood, 27, is one exception: He has mid-90’s smoke, an excellent groundout rate of 58.1 percent, limited hard contact and a 3.49 ERA away from Coors Field.
The red pinstripes currently have a handful of pitchers who could develop into starters with above-average control. Basically, one or two could exceed 70 percent accuracy or be at the bottom of the rotation. On the other hand, the organization has three hard-throwing starters at Triple-A or higher. Will one succeed?
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “If things don’t come easy, there is no premium on effort. There should be joy in the chase, zest in the pursuit.” – Branch Rickey
In the comments section of a major site, fans recently tossed around names of hurlers the Phillies could pursue with a swap. Some would cost a Scott Kingery and a Hoskins, while others had a poor 2017 or are on clubs in the market for starters. Agreement was minimal. Basically, their reasoning depended on their perception of which stats were important. On another site, however, the solution was to spend money for an ace who will be around 36 at the end of the contract. Healthy or not!
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Of the four potential candidates to deal, Tommy Joseph will not bring back a worthwhile return, and the Philadelphia Phillies might be better-off keeping him. Yes, he smacked 22 homers last summer, but 117 MLB hitters had 20 home runs or more. And even if the front office finds a trade partner, Joseph will be a balancing piece to complete the transaction.
While receivers are always in short supply, Cameron Rupp is a solid backup who could be more valuable offensively with less exposure, but defensively he ranked 110 out of 116 big league catchers for pitch framing. Basically, Rupp alone won’t be enough, and even adding Single-A talent recently acquired from other teams provides only a marginal shot. The backstop will need at least one other player or pitcher for a potential swap.
WORDS OF WISDOM: “Things worthwhile generally don’t just happen. Luck is a fact but should not be a factor. Good luck is what is left over after intelligence and effort have combined at their best. Negligence or indifference are usually reviewed from an unlucky seat. The law of cause and effect and causality both work the same with inexorable exactitudes. Luck is the residue of design.” – Branch Rickey
When it comes to defense, Freddy Galvis is a top shortstop. In fact, any contender needing a premier glove would have interest, but they would probably hold onto the pitching the Phils want. And the end result again would be a deal requiring an additional player or hurler. On the other hand, moving Galvis would leave Cesar Hernandez as the only counted-on infielder to the first baseman’s right. Maikel Franco, J.P. Crawford and Kingery are question marks for the Show until they prove otherwise.
Even though Hernandez is the most attractive Phillie available, would he alone bring back a mid-rotation piece? Well, the Los Angeles Dodgers need a second baseman, and they have the arms. But the hurlers they’d swap for Hernandez have injury-plagued histories. Additionally, leaving Galvis as the only proven infielder to the first sacker’s right will only be worth it if the organization picks up a healthy starter.
EASIER SAID THAN DONE: “Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.” – Branch Rickey
Next: GM's Plans for 2018's Phillies
Finding a club needing two of these four players or one and an arm requires a staff like the one reporting to general manager Matt Klentak. And this doesn’t include a three-way deal, which would be too complex for an in-depth analysis here. Basically, a trade for a two-slot starter is a monumental task, but inking the right free agent would allow management to evaluate in-house youngsters for open spots in the rotation. And, of course, MacPhail only clarified what is obvious as a deke, but what did ownership tell him regarding an excellent opportunity? Spend money!