Miami Marlins: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview

Giancarlo Stanton put on a show for Marlins supporters, but with new ownership promising big changes he could be finished in Miami.

Rooting for the Miami Marlins is rarely easy. Since their inception in 1993 they have never finished in first place. Through 25 seasons they’ve only finished above .500 six times, and haven’t done so since 2009. Sure, there were championships in 1997 and 2003, but both were followed by massive sell-offs and they haven’t reached the playoffs in 15 years.

Ownership deserves a large share of the blame. Jeffrey Loria’s reign as owner was marked by perpetual bottom-feeding and frugality. Marlins payroll was always at or near the bottom of the league, frequently paying his team less in salary than he was receiving in revenue sharing. Players and fans alike often became disgruntled and weary of mismanagement. As (now former) reliever AJ Ramos was quoted by Tim Healey of the Miami Sun Sentinel:

“I’ve come to expect things like this,” said Ramos, the Marlins’ All-Star closer. “I feel like there’s always something that comes out, always something we’re going to have to talk about. Every year I kind of wait. ‘OK, what’s it going to be this year?'”

Now the parsimonious rule of Loria is over. A new ownership group led by DE-REK JE-TER (Clap! Clap! Clap clap clap!) has taken control and immediately cleared out the front office. No one knows how the new ownership group will remake the franchise, but the team spent 2017 in a holding pattern as the ownership transition was finalized. They finished 77-85, good for second place in the NL East but 20 games below the runaway Nationals.

There was a bright spot, though, a 6-foot-6, 245-pound solar flare.

The Lineup

Facing the Marlins lineup was rarely fun for opposing pitchers. Of course, Stanton was front and center. He was joined in the outfield by Marcell Ozuna‘s 37 home runs and 142 wRC+, as well as Christian Yelich‘s .807 OPS. All three outfielders are under the age of 28 and remain the strength of the team.

Catcher J.T. Realmuto posted a 3.6 fWAR, which was the third highest in baseball among catchers, trailing only Gary Sanchez and Buster Posey. First baseman Justin Bour slugged 25 homers and proved that he can hit left-handed pitching. Second baseman Dee Gordon led the league in stolen bases (60) for the third time in four years.

All in all, the Marlins hit .267, good for second best in the NL. Their 778 runs scored were fifth in the league, and their entire starting lineup are in their 20s. In theory, the position players could lead the team forward toward playoff contention.

The Pitching Staff

Marlins pitchers are to blame for the majority of their 85 losses. The rotation never recovered from the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez and drifted through the season without an ace. Jose Urena was a pleasant surprise, putting up a 3.82 ERA in 28 starts and six relief appearances, but his 6.0 K/9 and 5.20 FIP suggest his success is unsustainable. Offseason acquisitions Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez proved to be solid mid-rotation options, though Volquez was limited to 17 starts due to injury.

The remainder of Marlins starters didn’t fare as well. They suffered through 62 combined starts from Adam Conley (6.14 ERA), Tom Koehler (7.92 ERA), Vance Worley (6.91 ERA) and Justin Nicolino (5.06 ERA).

The relievers weren’t much better. Only Kyle Barraclough, AJ Ramos and David Phelps averaged more than one strikeout per inning, and the latter two were traded away at the deadline.

All told, the Marlins’ 4.82 ERA was the third worst in the NL. Only the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins registered a lower K/9 than Miami’s 7.5.

The Winter Ahead

Derek Jeter and the new ownership group have already completely turned over the team’s top decision makers. With the offseason approaching, he’ll turn his attention to the on-field talent.

According to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, Jeter plans to cut payroll from $140 million down to $90 million. As quoted in his introductory press conference:

“Moving forward, there’s going to be, at times, unpopular decisions we make on behalf of the organization.”

If he does cut $50 million from the roster, Stanton will almost certainly be traded. His $25 million salary next season will be nearly double the second highest (Martin Prado‘s $13.5 million). What’s more troublesome are his future salary obligations. He’s owed $77 million from 2018-2020, after which he could opt out at age 30.

If he doesn’t opt out, he’ll be due an additional $222 million through 2028 – his age 38 season. That’s a financial burden the Marlins have never been able to bear. After slugging his way to the greatest individual season in franchise history, his trade value is at its peak.

Stanton will have plenty of company on the trade block. Young stars Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto and Bour could also be on the move in an effort to reduce payroll and rebuild one of the most barren farm systems in baseball.

Next: The top 5 relievers in the ALCS and NLCS

No fan base likes to hear words like “patience,” “transition,” or “rebuild.” In South Florida these words are perpetually part of the team’s narrative. This offseason promises to be tumultuous once again, and not for good reasons. Time will tell if the latest rebuild will finally bring glory to a fan base that has grown weary of excuses.