Detroit Tigers: is Ron Gardenhire doomed to fail?
The Detroit Tigers hired Ron Gardenhire to manage them through their upcoming rebuild. But he faces long odds of guiding them back to the playoffs.
As of this afternoon, Ron Gardenhire officially occupies one of the most coveted positions in sports. The Detroit Tigers officially announced he will be their next manager. Only 30 people in the world can call themselves MLB managers at any given time. Gardenhire is as qualified a managerial candidate as any; he led the Minnesota Twins for 13 years and reached the playoffs most recently in 2017 as the Arizona Diamondbacks bench coach.
When he took over the Twins managerial job in 2002 he replaced Tom Kelly, a two-time World Series champion and fan favorite. The Twins finished 85-77 the year before and reached the playoffs in each of Gardenhire’s first three seasons.
Now he’s been handed the keys to a Tigers franchise under very different circumstances.
The Looming Rebuild
The 2017 Tigers finished 64-98. While it’s relatively common for teams to bounce back quickly from losing seasons, that seems highly unlikely in Detroit. Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jordan Zimmermann combined for -1.1 bWAR. Those three players have a combined $276 million remaining on their contracts including $72 million in 2018. Nearly all of their veterans with any trade value were shipped off at the deadline in Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, J. D. Martinez, and Alex Avila.
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Making matters worse is the farm system. The team restocked a barren organization with their deadline deals, but most of that talent isn’t close to MLB ready. Even still, Call to the Pen’s Benjamin Chase ranked Detroit’s minor league system only 24th out of 30 this past August.
By any measure the franchise is headed for a significant overhaul that will last several seasons.
Managers’ Short Shelf Life
MLB managers just aren’t built to last. Through 2017, there have been 699 managers in the history of baseball who have combined to manage 431,472 games. That’s an average of 617.2 games per manager, or 3.81 seasons. Those figures include outliers in both directions, such as Connie Mack, who led the Philadelphia Athletics for 50 seasons, as well as Ted Turner, who was forced out of the dugout by commissioner Bowie Kuhn after one game.
Recent history is more kind to managers. The 30 managers who finished the 2017 season averaged 1350.5 games managed and 8.33 seasons. (This includes the five that were since fired.)
However, that data is skewed by guys like Dusty Baker and Terry Francona who had long stints managing other ballclubs than their current employers. If we only consider each manager’s time spent with their current team, those averages drop to 766.1 games and 4.73 seasons a piece.
The Sad Plight of Rebuilding Managers
Unfortunately for “Gardy”, he may not get the full 4.73 seasons his peers average. Naturally, managers tend to stick around longer when they win than they do when they lose. The aforementioned Tigers aren’t likely to be competitive any time soon.
Looking at other recent rebuilds, the Houston Astros fired Bo Porter in the middle of the 2014 season right before many of their young stars came of age. They improved from 70-92 that year to 86-76 under A. J. Hinch in 2015 and haven’t had a losing season since.
The Chicago Cubs followed a similar path. Dale Sveum (2012-2013) and Rick Renteria (2014) were given quick hooks by management for losing seasons despite their obvious focus on rebuilding. When their team was ready to compete they hired Joe Maddon and reached the NLCS in each of the three seasons since, with a World Series championship in 2016.
The Astros and Cubs had successful rebuilds, but other franchises aren’t as lucky. The Seattle Mariners haven’t made the playoffs since 2001. Since then, they’ve employed 10 different managers and none for more than three years. The Philadelphia Phillies last finished over .500 in 2011. They’ve had three managers since then with a fourth on the way.
This is a day for celebration for Ron Gardenhire and the Detroit Tigers. Everyone’s happy during an introductory press conference. Maybe he will beat the odds and outlast the dark days ahead. Maybe the Tigers will surprise baseball and compete for a playoff spot ahead of schedule. However, the current state of the team and baseball’s history with managers suggest he shouldn’t get too comfortable.