What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Texas Rangers this offseason?
Despite coming off back-to-back AL West titles, including a 95-win season in 2016, the Texas Rangers were not the favorites to win the AL West heading into this season. Sports Illustrated picked the Astros to take the West, with the Rangers finishing two games out, going 89-73. That was enough to win the first wild card spot, though. Baseball Prospectus projected the Rangers to finish third in the division, with 84 wins but out of the playoffs. Fangraphs had them fourth, with 83 wins and also missing the playoffs. They ended up falling short of their projections, with 78 wins.
It may be surprising for a team that won 95 games to be projected to win 7-12 fewer games, but there were signs that the 2016 team had played over its head. For one thing, despite being 28 games over .500, the Rangers had a run differential of just +8. A big part of their success was an incredible 36-11 record in one-run games, which proved to be unsustainable.
This year, the Rangers won 78 games with a -17 run differential and a 13-24 record in one-run games. It was like all of their luck from the previous year reversed itself. The standings page at ESPN has an expected win-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed. The 2016 Rangers had an expected record of 82-80 and won 95 games. This year’s team had an expected record of 79-83 and won 78 games. By runs scored and runs allowed, the teams weren’t that different.
Despite their sub-.500 record, the Rangers did have some things go right this year. They also had plenty of things go wrong. Let’s take a look at both sides of that coin, along with the team’s top offseason priorities.