Texas Rangers: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview

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What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Texas Rangers this offseason?

Despite coming off back-to-back AL West titles, including a 95-win season in 2016, the Texas Rangers were not the favorites to win the AL West heading into this season. Sports Illustrated picked the Astros to take the West, with the Rangers finishing two games out, going 89-73. That was enough to win the first wild card spot, though. Baseball Prospectus projected the Rangers to finish third in the division, with 84 wins but out of the playoffs. Fangraphs had them fourth, with 83 wins and also missing the playoffs. They ended up falling short of their projections, with 78 wins.

It may be surprising for a team that won 95 games to be projected to win 7-12 fewer games, but there were signs that the 2016 team had played over its head. For one thing, despite being 28 games over .500, the Rangers had a run differential of just +8. A big part of their success was an incredible 36-11 record in one-run games, which proved to be unsustainable.

This year, the Rangers won 78 games with a -17 run differential and a 13-24 record in one-run games. It was like all of their luck from the previous year reversed itself. The standings page at ESPN has an expected win-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed. The 2016 Rangers had an expected record of 82-80 and won 95 games. This year’s team had an expected record of 79-83 and won 78 games. By runs scored and runs allowed, the teams weren’t that different.

Despite their sub-.500 record, the Rangers did have some things go right this year. They also had plenty of things go wrong. Let’s take a look at both sides of that coin, along with the team’s top offseason priorities.

What Went Right

Shortstop Elvis Andrus had the best year of his career and he did it in a surprising way, by being an above-average hitter. Andrus was a good-fielding, light-hitting shortstop who stole 20-40 bases per year for the first seven years of his career. He showed a big improvement with the bat in 2016, when he had the highest on-base percentage of his career (.362) and slugged over .400 for the first time.

This year, Andrus ramped up the power to a level he’d never reached before. His previous career high in home runs in a season was eight. This year, he hit 20, while slugging .471. His newfound power and still solid defense made him the most valuable position player on the team in 2017.

National treasure Adrian Beltre had a good year, when he was able to get on the field. Nagging leg injuries kept him off the field all too often. He only played 94 games, but hit .312/.383/.532. One of the highlights of the season was when Beltre ripped a double into left field for the 3000^th hit of his career. You know it was a special occasion because Beltre let his teammates touch his head during the ensuing celebration.

Beltre is expected to be back with the Rangers for the final year of his contract, but if the team decides to go into rebuilding mode, they will likely trade him to a contender. Either way, he’ll continue to pile up hits and should pass former teammate Ichiro Suzuki and quite a few others at some point next year. If Beltre is healthy enough to bang out 137 hits, he’ll move into 15^th place on the all-time career hits list.

It feels like we’ve been hearing about Joey Gallo for years, but it should be noted that he was only 23 this season. He struggled in brief attempts in the big leagues in 2015 and 2016, hitting .173/.281/.368 in 153 plate appearances and striking out nearly fifty percent of the time. This year, he still struck out often (36.8 percent strikeout rate), but also launched 41 long balls and slugged over .500. His defense was poor at the corner infield spots, but he was still a three-win player.

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At the catcher position, the Rangers got good work from a surprising source. The team acquired Jonathan Lucroy in August of 2016, with the idea that he would be a good-hitting catcher last year and this year. Instead, Lucroy didn’t hit well at all with the Rangers and was traded away this season. Robinson Chirinos, meanwhile, took over catching duties and hit .255/.360/.506. He was a 2-WAR player in just 88 games.

The starting rotation had their struggles, with Cole Hamels starting just 24 games and Yu Darvish being traded, but free agent signee Andrew Cashner came through with 28 starts and a 3.40 ERA. He did it with smoke-and-mirrors, though, as his strikeout rate was just 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings, by far the lowest of his career. His 4.61 FIP suggests he was very fortunate to have an ERA as low as he did. The Rangers may present Cashner with a qualifying offer. If he accepts, he would cost $18.1 million next season. If he declines, the team would get a draft pick as compensation.

In the bullpen, the Rangers had seven different relievers pick up at least one save, which tells you they didn’t have one go-to guy to rely on all year to close out games. As a team, they had a 4.76 ERA in relief, which was 28^th in baseball. One guy who did come through was Alex Claudio, who led the team with 11 saves and had a 2.50 ERA in 82.7 innings.

What Went Wrong

Second baseman Rougned Odor hit 30 bombs and had 15 steals, but he was still the worst regular position player on the Rangers this season. Sure, he packs a punch with those 30 homers, but his .252 on-base percentage was easily the lowest in baseball for qualifying hitters. The next-lowest was the .272 OBP by Alcides Escobar. He also wasn’t great on defense.

There wasn’t much “partying at Napoli’s” this year in Texas. The slugger who hit 34 home runs and had 101 RBI season for Cleveland in 2016 struggled to a .193/.285/.428 season that made him a well below-average hitter. It was the worst year of the 35-year-old’s career. He won’t be back with the team in 2018.

Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo had some useful qualities, but neither were very valuable. Mazara hit 20 homers and drove in 101 runs, but was still below average on offense. He had a 92 wRC+, a metric that adjust for league and ballpark effects. That made him eight percent below average as a hitter. He also struggled on defense, so was worth 0.4 WAR.

Choo was above average on offense, thanks in large part to a .357 OBP, but his struggles in the field and on the bases made him worth just 0.8 WAR. Choo signed a free agent deal with the Rangers prior to the 2014 season that will pay him $130 million overall (seven-year deal). In the first four years of the deal, Choo has had one above-average season (3.6 WAR in 2015).

Two starting pitchers who have struggled with injuries recently, Tyson Ross and A.J. Griffin, had rough seasons. Griffin had a 5.94 ERA in 77.3 innings. Ross had a 7.71 ERA in 49 innings. Nick Martinez was another starter with an ERA over 5.00. Even the team leader in starts and innings pitched, Martin Perez, had a 4.82 ERA.

One big disappointment in the bullpen was Sam Dyson, who led the team with 38 saves in 2016. He was brutal this season for Texas, getting lit up for a 10.80 ERA. He was traded to the San Francisco Giants in June and ended up saving 14 games for his new team.

ARLINGTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 13: Shin-Soo Choo /

Top Offseason Priorities

According to CBS Sports, the Texas Rangers had the 6^th-highest payroll in baseball on Opening Day, at over $172 million. They still have four players making at least $15 million. These four players—Cole Hamels, Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre, and Elvis Andrus—made more than the entire Opening Day payroll of three teams.

This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:

C Robinson Chirinos, $2.35 million

1B Joey Gallo, pre-arbitration

2B Rougned Odor, $3 million

SS Elvis Andus, $15 million

3B Adrian Beltre, $18 million

LF Nomar Mazara, pre-arbitration

CF Delino DeShields, pre-arbitration

RF Shin-Soo Choo, $20 million

DH Jurickson Profar, arbitration-eligible (made $1 million last year)

OF Ryan Rua, pre-arbitration

SP Cole Hamels, $22.5 million

SP Martin Perez, $6 million club option, with $2.45 million buyout

SP A.J. Griffin, arbitration-eligible (made $2 million last year)

SP Nick Martinez, arbitration-eligible (made $540,590 last year)

RP Alex Claudio, pre-arbitration

RP Matt Bush, arbitration-eligible (made $544,920 last year)

RP Jake Diekman, arbitration-eligible (made $2.55 million last year)

RP Tony Barnette, $4 million club option with $250,000 buyout

Free agents: OF Carlos Gomez, SP Andrew Cashner, SP Miguel Gonzalez, RP Jason Grilli

Because of their hitter-friendly ballpark, it seems like the Rangers need the same thing every year—better pitching. That’s true to a certain extent this year, but it should be noted that the Rangers’ hitting attack wasn’t great either. They ranked 18^th in MLB with a 94 wRC+, which means their offense was six percent below average after league and ballpark effects were taken into account.

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At home, the Rangers hit .265/.347/.460 and averaged 5.5 runs per game. On the road, they hit .224/.293/.401 and averaged 4.3 runs per game. That’s a problem. It may not seem like it on the surface, but the Rangers could use some help on offense, especially in the on-base department.

With the high-cost contracts of Choo, Beltre, and Andrus, their lineup is set on the left side of the infield and wherever Choo ends up playing. His defense is poor enough that he should probably be a DH at this point. Unfortunately, the same could be said for Joey Gallo. As of right now, Gallo should get a clear shot at first base unless the Rangers go shopping for a bat there.

There are a number of first baseman available as free agents, but the top guys—Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana—are likely too expensive for a team that already has as much money on the books as the Rangers. There’s also young first base prospect Ronald Guzman, who hit .298/.372/.434 in Triple-A and is close to big league ready.

Depending on how the team feels about Delino DeShields, the center field position could be an area to upgrade. Jon Heyman listed the Rangers as a possible landing spot for free agent Lorenzo Cain. He’s coming off a good year with the bat and has been an above-average fielder for years, but won’t be cheap.

Another player Heyman mentioned as a possible Rangers’ signing is free agent starting pitcher Jake Arrieta, who is coming off a 14-10, 3.53 ERA season. Arrieta has slipped from his peak two-year run with the Cubs in 2014-2015, but is still one of the top arms on the market and will demand a high price. The downside is that Arrieta will be 32 years old next year and only has one 200-inning season on his resume.

Whether they go after a top tier free agent starter or shop in the bargain bin, the Rangers will need some arms for the rotation. Unless they shift to rebuild mode, Hamels will be back and Martin Perez will have his option picked up. Expect the team to bring in some cheaper free agents, like they did with Tyson Ross last season. They’ll also go cheap with bullpen arms.

Next: Dusty's days in D.C. are done

Catching the very talented Houston Astros is a pipe dream for 2018, but a wild card spot isn’t out of the question. The Twins took the second wild card last season with just 85 wins. The Rangers don’t look like an 85-win team at the moment, but there’s a full offseason left to get them there.

Once the 2018 season starts, it will be imperative for the team to get off to a good start to avoid going into full rebuild mode. Should they fall out of contention, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Beltre and Hamels be moved for whatever prospects they can bring back.

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