Top Offseason Priorities
According to CBS Sports, the Texas Rangers had the 6th-highest payroll in baseball on Opening Day, at over $172 million. They still have four players making at least $15 million. These four players—Cole Hamels, Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre, and Elvis Andrus—made more than the entire Opening Day payroll of three teams.
This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:
C Robinson Chirinos, $2.35 million
1B Joey Gallo, pre-arbitration
2B Rougned Odor, $3 million
SS Elvis Andus, $15 million
3B Adrian Beltre, $18 million
LF Nomar Mazara, pre-arbitration
CF Delino DeShields, pre-arbitration
RF Shin-Soo Choo, $20 million
DH Jurickson Profar, arbitration-eligible (made $1 million last year)
OF Ryan Rua, pre-arbitration
SP Cole Hamels, $22.5 million
SP Martin Perez, $6 million club option, with $2.45 million buyout
SP A.J. Griffin, arbitration-eligible (made $2 million last year)
SP Nick Martinez, arbitration-eligible (made $540,590 last year)
RP Alex Claudio, pre-arbitration
RP Matt Bush, arbitration-eligible (made $544,920 last year)
RP Jake Diekman, arbitration-eligible (made $2.55 million last year)
RP Tony Barnette, $4 million club option with $250,000 buyout
Free agents: OF Carlos Gomez, SP Andrew Cashner, SP Miguel Gonzalez, RP Jason Grilli
Because of their hitter-friendly ballpark, it seems like the Rangers need the same thing every year—better pitching. That’s true to a certain extent this year, but it should be noted that the Rangers’ hitting attack wasn’t great either. They ranked 18th in MLB with a 94 wRC+, which means their offense was six percent below average after league and ballpark effects were taken into account.
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At home, the Rangers hit .265/.347/.460 and averaged 5.5 runs per game. On the road, they hit .224/.293/.401 and averaged 4.3 runs per game. That’s a problem. It may not seem like it on the surface, but the Rangers could use some help on offense, especially in the on-base department.
With the high-cost contracts of Choo, Beltre, and Andrus, their lineup is set on the left side of the infield and wherever Choo ends up playing. His defense is poor enough that he should probably be a DH at this point. Unfortunately, the same could be said for Joey Gallo. As of right now, Gallo should get a clear shot at first base unless the Rangers go shopping for a bat there.
There are a number of first baseman available as free agents, but the top guys—Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana—are likely too expensive for a team that already has as much money on the books as the Rangers. There’s also young first base prospect Ronald Guzman, who hit .298/.372/.434 in Triple-A and is close to big league ready.
Depending on how the team feels about Delino DeShields, the center field position could be an area to upgrade. Jon Heyman listed the Rangers as a possible landing spot for free agent Lorenzo Cain. He’s coming off a good year with the bat and has been an above-average fielder for years, but won’t be cheap.
Another player Heyman mentioned as a possible Rangers’ signing is free agent starting pitcher Jake Arrieta, who is coming off a 14-10, 3.53 ERA season. Arrieta has slipped from his peak two-year run with the Cubs in 2014-2015, but is still one of the top arms on the market and will demand a high price. The downside is that Arrieta will be 32 years old next year and only has one 200-inning season on his resume.
Whether they go after a top tier free agent starter or shop in the bargain bin, the Rangers will need some arms for the rotation. Unless they shift to rebuild mode, Hamels will be back and Martin Perez will have his option picked up. Expect the team to bring in some cheaper free agents, like they did with Tyson Ross last season. They’ll also go cheap with bullpen arms.
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Catching the very talented Houston Astros is a pipe dream for 2018, but a wild card spot isn’t out of the question. The Twins took the second wild card last season with just 85 wins. The Rangers don’t look like an 85-win team at the moment, but there’s a full offseason left to get them there.
Once the 2018 season starts, it will be imperative for the team to get off to a good start to avoid going into full rebuild mode. Should they fall out of contention, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Beltre and Hamels be moved for whatever prospects they can bring back.