Baltimore Orioles 2017 review, offseason preview
The Baltimore Orioles limped to a last place finish in the AL East, finishing with a 75-87 record. Now they’ll have some questions to answer about the direction of their club entering the offseason.
The Baltimore Orioles were flying right around the .500 mark heading into June, and even won their first two games of the month to go five games above even. Then they proceeded to go 7-14 over their next 21, leaving them a couple games below .500 as the calendar neared July. Their next 78 games saw them go another four games below .500, but sticking around that marker is all the playoff-bound Minnesota Twins did before a hot stretch carried them to the postseason.
The O’s finished out 2017 by going 2-8, ultimately dooming their season.
The optimistic way to look at their year is that their All Star closer, Zach Britton, missed much of the season, and Manny Machado wasn’t right all year at the dish, despite turning things around a bit in the second half. With some luck and improvements to their roster, they could definitely be back to contending in what should shape up to be a wide open American League wild-card race.
Or they could begin the rebuild process.
And therein lies the $100,000 question for the Orioles and their fans this offseason: Which direction should the team head in? On the one hand, this winter could be their one opportunity to restock the farm system and set their sights on a brighter tomorrow. On the other hand, Manny Machado, who is set to hit the free agent market after the 2018 season, isn’t out the door yet and he is a special talent. Would punting the final year of his control be something that the front office folks could live with if their return for the coveted third baseman doesn’t pan out?
We’ll talk about all of this in a little more detail, but first, let’s discuss a breakout star and which players could be playing elsewhere in 2018.
Free agents
The Baltimore rotation is not necessarily a strong part of the club on a year-to-year basis, but this winter many of the names that were making starts for them down the stretch could be hitting the free agent market. In other words, this is an opportunity for addition by subtraction if the team plays their cards right.
Ubaldo Jimenez: -1.3 bWAR, 6.81 ERA, 5.54 FIP. Made $13.5 million in 2017.
Jeremy Hellickson: 0.2 bWAR, 6.97 ERA, 6.33 FIP with Orioles (10 starts). Made $17.2 million between Phillies and O’s.
Wade Miley: -0.3 bWAR, 5.61 ERA, 5.27 FIP. Has $12 million team option for 2018 that includes a $500K buyout.
Chris Tillman: -2.2 bWAR, 7.84 ERA, 6.93 FIP. Made just over $10 million in 2017.
While none of these arms would be back in the rotation in a perfect world, that’s a lot of innings to replace without spending some money. Each of these players would require a modest stack of cash, but wouldn’t break the bank, unlike some of the other free agents set to hit the market, including Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta.
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One player that could have helped this situation was Parker Bridwell, whom the Orioles traded to the Angels for cash after a couple of rough Triple-A outings from the bullpen this season. He made it to the bigs with Los Angeles and went 10-3 with a 3.64 ERA. He’s a long way from a repeat of Jake Arrieta, but this does potentially speak to a larger issue in the Baltimore player development arena potentially giving up on players too early.
Anyway, back to more free agents!
J.J. Hardy has a $14 million team option, but after a down year that included a right wrist fracture, it’s hard to see the O’s bringing back Hardy for his age 36 season. The emergence of Tim Beckham‘s offensive prowess likely didn’t help Hardy’s case much either.
Welington Castillo has a $7 million player option, and with his 113 wRC+ and league-leading 49% caught stealing percentage, it’s safe to say that Baltimore is hoping he stays. The folks at MLB Trade Rumors think he’s likely going to opt out, but could re-sign with the O’s on a more lucrative contract.
35-year-old Seth Smith will also be a free agent, and if Joey Rickard was better with the bat this one would be easy. Instead, the O’s will likely have to scour the free agent market for a replacement if they’re hoping to compete in 2018.
Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Flaherty and Craig Gentry round out the rest of the free agent list, and each could return, but there should be upgrades on the free agent market to be had as well.
Trey Mancini
If there is one thing that the Baltimore Orioles do well, it’s hit dingers. If there is one thing that they may need more of, it’s talented young players. Trey Mancini can hit dingers, will be 26 for next season, and is under team control through 2022. Check, check and check.
Mancini burst onto the scene this past year by blasting 24 homers and driving in 78 to go along with a 117 wRC+, ranking him ninth among all rookies with at least 200 plate appearances. His defense was just a tick below average in left field, so if he can continue to swing the bat in the middle of an already powerful Orioles lineup, he should be somewhere in the lineup on a daily basis.
As a right-handed bat, Mancini hit both righties and lefties the same, holding a .293 batting average, though most of his power came when facing righties–19 dingers to five against southpaws in roughly 200 fewer at-bats.
With a launch angle that averaged just over 4.5 degrees below league average, a slight adjustment to Mancini’s swing plane could result in a huge power surge in 2018–especially at Camden Yards.
Re-upping the key components?
A lot has been made in the news about the impending free agencies of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and rightfully so. They are both franchise-changing players, and they’re both presumed to be headed to the Bronx. While Machado’s fate is far from a given at this point (heck the 2017 World Series has yet to be played), it does stand to reason that he could leave the O’s.
With that possibility looming, does that mean that the team should try and trade him this winter? Where could there move him? A team not only has to be looking to compete, but also needs the farm system to be able to compensate Baltimore for their prized player and also needs to have an opening at either third or short. That’s if they choose to move Machado and jump-start a rebuild.
If they go down that path, do they also look to trade closer Zach Britton? What about franchise icon Adam Jones? All three players are integral to the Orioles success, and all three will be free agents after 2018.
The question will most definitely be whether or not to cash in their chips or go for broke this winter.
If it were up to me, I’d go for broke. They have a Hall of Fame manager that can get them an extra couple of wins throughout the course of the year, which could be enough to sneak into the playoffs, and if the front office makes a few upgrades to the roster, they should be in business once more.
Next: Rangers season review, offseason preview
My answer would change if there were, say, two years of control left on the trio, or even just Machado, but with just one more season for all three, the return isn’t going to be as franchise-altering as it could have been. I mean, the GM most prone to giving up top prospects (Dombrowski) found his third baseman this past season, so he has no need for another one.
The risk with keeping all three players on the roster for 2018 would be a repeat of this past season, where Jonathan Schoop was their best player according to bWAR–and by a wide margin. The Baltimore Orioles need their stars to shine in order to have success, but if they keep their big trade chips and plan to contend and they end up faltering again, then the franchise could be stuck in the cellar for a few seasons at the very least.
This isn’t an enviable decision by any means. What would you do?