Philadelphia Phillies: 2017 season review and offseason preview
What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason?
The last great Phillies team was the 2011 squad that won 102 games but lost in the division series. This was the end of a five-year stretch during which the Phillies won the NL East every year and made the World Series twice, winning the 2008 Fall Classic against the Tampa Bay Rays. That team had a big payroll that included eight players making ten million or more per year.
Times have changed since then. The Phillies were .500 in 2012, then slipped to 73 wins in 2013 and 2014. They bottomed out with a 63-99 season in 2015. That team had five players making $13 million or more, including three guys making nearly $75 million among them (Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Ryan Howard). You could say it took a while for the Phillies to fully embrace a rebuild.
The 2016 team seemed to make progress with a 71-win season, but they took a step back this year with a 66-win season and another last place finish in the NL East. That makes five straight losing seasons. It would be easy for a Phillies fan to question the rebuilding process at this point after some young players regressed in 2017. On the other hand, an optimist could look at the team’s 17-13 finish and the hitting of Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams down the stretch and be excited about the future.
The big contracts are gone now. Jeremy Hellickson made $17.2 million last year and was traded to the Orioles in July. Howie Kendrick and his $10 million contract were traded to the Nationals the same day. Clay Buchholz ($13.5 million) is a free agent. The current roster doesn’t have anyone making that kind of money.
As the rebuild continues, let’s take a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.
What Went Right
The most valuable position player on the Phillies was second baseman Cesar Hernandez, but it took a while for him to get going. He struggled a bit in the first half, hitting .277/.336/.399 (good for a 94 wRC+, which means he was six percent below average when league and ballpark effects were taken into account). In the second half, Hernandez hit .308/.403/.440, which made him 25 percent better than average at the plate.
The second half improvement by Hernandez wasn’t isolated. The whole team hit better as a group in the second half. They went from hitting .242/.303/.394 (81 wRC+) in the first half to .259/.327/.425 (96 wRC+) in the second half. Compared to the rest of baseball, the Phillies went from 28th on offense to 17th.
One of the biggest reasons for the improvement was the bat of Rhys Hoskins, who arrived on August 10. He had 11 home runs and 24 RBI in his first 18 games and a record-setting 18 homers in his first 34 games. Despite playing just 50 games, he finished fourth on the team in home runs and third among position players in Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per Fangraphs).
Another young outfielder, Nick Williams, came up a the end of June and hit .288/.338/.473 in 88 games. Williams primarily played right field, but also got into a dozen or more games in center field and left field, so his flexibility could prove useful next season. Hoskins also has some flexibility. He split time between first base and left field.
Center fielder Odubel Herrera took a step back from 2016 in large part due to a brutal first half in which he hit .256/.292/.393 (75 wRC+). He was much better down the stretch, with a .323/.378/.551 batting line in the second half. His post-All Star break 140 wRC+ was second best on the team, behind only Hoskins.
There were plenty of disappointments in the starting rotation, but Aaron Nola was not among them. He led the team in wins, starts, and innings and had an ERA that was at least half a run better than any other pitcher with more than 10 starts. He’ll be 25 years old next season.
In the bullpen, setup guy Pat Neshek was terrific (1.12 ERA in 40.3 innings) before being traded to the Rockies in July. Luis Garcia was dependable, with a 2.65 ERA in 71.3 innings across 66 appearances. Closer Hector Neris had some rocky outings, but finished the year with a team-leading 26 saves and a 3.01 ERA in 74.7 innings.
What Went Wrong
First baseman Tommy Joseph came up in 2016 and hit 21 homers in 107 games. The Phillies hoped the young slugger would be a middle-of-the-order force with the bat. Instead, he regressed on offense and finished this year with a .240/.289/.432 batting line, making him a well below average hitter. He was also brutal in the field and finished the season as the worst position player on the team (-1.1 WAR).
In January, the Phillies signed outfielder Michael Saunders to a one-year, $8 million deal after he’d hit 24 homers in 140 games with the Blue Jays in 2016. They might as well have flushed big wads of cash down the toilet. Saunders was terrible, hitting .202/.256/.344, and was released in June.
Maikel Franco looked like the Phillies’ third baseman of the future after he hit .280/.343/.497 in 80 games as a 22-year-old in 2015. He’s hit progressively worse in the two seasons since, including the .230/.281/.409 season he just finished. He no longer looks like the Phillies’ third baseman of the future.
Starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson came to the Phillies before the 2016 season in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was good in his first year with the team, going 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA (3.89 FIP). Last offseason, the Phillies made a qualifying offer to Hellickson, which he accepted, so his pay rose to $17.2 million.
The team was likely hoping Hellickson would increase his value and bring something beneficial back in a trade during the season. Instead, he had a 4.73 ERA (5.51 FIP) in 20 starts. They traded him to the Baltimore Orioles in July for outfielder Hyun Soo Kim, who is now a free agent, and left-hander Garrett Cleavinger, who may be useful as organizational depth but is not a highly-regarded prospect.
Another starter who regressed was Vince Velasquez, who had won eight games with a 4.12 ERA (3.96 FIP) and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 2016. This year, his strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate went up, and he allowed too many home runs. The end result was a 5.13 ERA and 5.52 FIP. Velasquez spent time on the DL in the middle of the season with a strained elbow tendon and had his season cut short in August with a circulation problem in his right hand.
In the bullpen, Jeanmar Gomez was the closer to start the year after he’d saved 37 games in 2016. It took him about a week to lose the job and a few months to lose his spot on the roster. The Phillies released him in August after he put up a 7.25 ERA (6.56 FIP) in 18 games
Top Offseason Priorities
According to CBS Sports, the Philadelphia had the 21st-highest payroll in baseball on Opening Day, at around $111 million. They no longer have the six highest-paid players from last year, so that payroll will come way down if they don’t spend some cash on free agents in the offseason. The biggest guaranteed contract is the $3.35 million for Odubel Herrera, although Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, and Maikel Franco will see an increase in salary through arbitration and are likely to make more than Herrera in 2018.
This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:
C Jorge Alfaro, pre-arbitration
1B Rhys Hoskins, pre-arbitration
2B Cesar Hernandez, arbitration-eligible (made $2.55 million last year)
SS Freddy Galvis, arbitration-eligible (made $4.35 million last year)
3B Maikel Franco, arbitration-eligible (made $560,000 last year)
LF Aaron Altherr, pre-arbitration
CF Odubel Herrera, $3 million
RF Nick Williams, pre-arbitration
1B Tommy Joseph, pre-arbitration
C Cameron Rupp, arbitration-eligible
C Andrew Knapp, pre-arbitration
SP Aaron Nola, pre-arbitration
SP Jerad Eickhoff, pre-arbitration
SP Vincent Velasquez, pre-arbitration
SP Ben Lively, pre-arbitration
SP Jake Thompson, pre-arbitration
SP Mark Leiter, Nick Pivetta, and others
RP Hector Neris, pre-arbitration
RP Edubray Ramos, pre-arbitration
RP Luis Garcia, arbitration-eligible
RP Adam Morgan, pre-arbitration
Free agents: SP Clay Buchholz, OF Hyun-Soo Kim, OF Daniel Nava, INF Andres Blanco
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The first priority for the Phillies will be hiring a manager. They moved previous manager Pete Mackanin to a front office role and have been searching for a replacement. It’s been reported that they’ve interviewed Mariners third base coach Manny Acta, Giants third base coach Phil Nevin, Athletics bench coach Chip Hale, and their own third base coach and former Phillies player, Juan Samuel. Mickey Callaway was a possibility, but the former pitching coach of the Cleveland Indians has reportedly been hired to be the manager of the New York Mets.
Other internal candidates include Dusty Wathan, who has been a manager at various levels of the minor leagues in the Phillies organization the last 10 years. Special assistant to the GM, Jorge Velandia, was also interviewed for the position. But wait, there’s more. Jon Heyman has suggested the Phillies have interest in Red Sox bench coach Gary DiSarcina, former Tigers manager Brad Ausmus, and Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond. Basically, anyone with a pulse will get a look, except for Larry Bowa (too old) and former GM Ruben Amaro, Jr (Phillies fans would revolt).
Along with finding a new manager, the team needs to decide which of their young players will be part of a future Phillies contender. They have an abundance of outfield talent, with Herrera, Altherr, Williams, and Hoskins all looking for playing time. Hoskins could shift to first base, which would leave Tommy Joseph as potential trade bait.
The middle infield duo of Galvis and Hernandez could soon be pushed out by young prospects J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery. Young catcher Jorge Alfaro was very good in 29 games last season and should be the regular behind the dish in 2018, perhaps sharing time with Andrew Knapp. That makes Cameron Rupp expendable.
Unless the Phillies decide to go shopping on the free agent market, the pitching rotation will be headed by Aaron Nola and whatever pitchers emerge from a young and inexperienced group that struggled this season. With contention not likely for a couple years, they could take their lumps as the young arms sort themselves out and forego the expensive free agent pitchers (Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish) until the time comes for a big push for an expensive veteran starter to lead the staff.
When it comes to the payroll, the Phillies will have money to spend in the next few years. Like they did with Herrera last December, they could lock up some of their young talent with team-friendly deals. They just need to pick the right players. In addition to the youth they have at the big league level already, they have some good prospects in the minor leaguers. If they want to make a splash this offseason, a bid for Giancarlo Stanton would excite the fans.
Next: Rays season review, offseason preview
They could also save their money until next offseason, when some premier free agents are likely to be available, including Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Charlie Blackmon. If their young talent develops this season, they could be ready to lure one of those big name free agents to Philly in the hopes of contending sooner rather than later.